REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN L-T FC RATINGS LOWERED TO "BBB-"; OFF WATCH; OUTLOOK STABLE
09.10.07 10:03
/Standard & Poor's, London, October 8, 07/ - Standard & Poor's Ratings
Services said today it lowered its long-term foreign currency sovereign credit
ratings on the Republic of Kazakhstan to 'BBB-' from 'BBB', and its long- and
short-term local currency sovereign credit ratings on the Republic to 'BBB/A-
3' from 'BBB+/A-2'. At the same time, the ratings were removed from
CreditWatch, where they were placed with negative implications on Oct. 2,
2007. In addition, Standard & Poor's affirmed its 'A-3' short-term foreign
currency sovereign credit ratings, and its 'kzAAA' national scale rating, on
Kazakhstan, and lowered its transfer and convertibility assessment on the
sovereign to 'BBB' from 'BBB+'. The outlook on the Republic's long-term
ratings is stable.
Due to government ownership, Standard & Poor's has also lowered the
counterparty credit ratings on the Development Bank of Kazakhstan
(DBK) to 'BBB-' from 'BBB'. At the same time, Standard & Poor's removed
the ratings from CreditWatch, where they were placed with negative
implications on Oct. 2, 2007. In addition, the 'A-3' short-term foreign and
local currency counterparty credit ratings on DBK were affirmed. The outlook
is stable.
"The rating downgrades reflect funding problems in the Kazakh financial
system," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Luc Marchand. "Since July,
falling domestic depositor confidence and difficulties in rolling over maturing
international syndicated loans and cross-border interbank deposits have
forced Kazakh banks to obtain short-term funding from the National Bank of
Kazakhstan (NBK, the central bank) to support their liquidity."
To date, this support has totaled about Kazakhstani tenge (KZT) 1.3 trillion,
which is equal to roughly three-quarters of the nation's monetary base. As a
consequence, NBK's international reserves have fallen by about $5.0 billion
to $18.4 billion, domestic interbank deposit rates have risen to 9% from 6%,
and domestic credit growth (which had been rising at 50% year-on-year) has
sharply decelerated.
"Although we expect continued pressure on international reserves as banks
roll over less than 100% of their maturing external debt and the NBK
remains committed to maintaining confidence in the tenge, we do not expect
the National Fund to be used for quasi-fiscal activity," added Mr. Marchand.
"We also expect energy prices to be supportive for investment in the
productive sectors of the economy. That said, the ratings would come under
renewed pressure should the policy response prove inadequate to prevent a
broader erosion of public confidence. Such an erosion would deepen the
problems with the banks and cause more lasting damage to the real
economy."
Ratings list
To From
Republic of Kazakhstan
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Long-term foreign currency sovereign credit BBB-/ BBB/ Watch
ratings on the Republic of Kazakhstan Stable/A-3 Negative/A-3
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Short-term local currency sovereign BBB/ Stable BBB+/ Watch
credit ratings on the Republic of Kazakhstan /A-3 Negative/A-2
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Transfer and convertibility assessment BBB BBB+
on the sovereign
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Development Bank of Kazakhstan
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The counterparty credit ratings BBB-/ Stable BBB/ Watch Negative
/A-3 /A-3
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Primary Credit Analyst:
Luc Marchand, London, (44) 20-7176-7111;
luc_marchand@standardandpoors.com
Secondary Credit Analysts:
Ben Faulks, London, (44) 20-7176-7108;
ben_faulks@standardandpoors.com
Moritz Kraemer, Frankfurt, (49) 69-33-99-9249;
moritz_kraemer@standardandpoors.com
Additional Contact:
Sovereign Ratings;
SovereignLondon@standardandpoors.com
[2007-10-09]