ANALYSIS: In September 2007 under the repo rates on KASE stabilized as banks were buying FEWER dollars

/IRBIS, Valeriy Khegay, Andrey Tsalyuk, October 8, 07/ - In September 2007 at Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) in the sector of repo operations 6,971 deals were registered for a total of KZT2,324.2 bn. or USD18,996.4 m. at the current rate on dates of concluding deals, which is 67.3% of the total turnover of KASE in the given month (in August 2007 - 58.2%). Compared to August 2007 the volume of transactions increased by KZT41.7 bn. ($732.6 m.) or by 1.8% (by 4.0% in dollars). Relative to September 2006 the volume of transactions increased by KZT807.0 bn. ($6,984.8 m.) or 1.5 times (1.6 times in dollars). Stake of the exchange turnover in the total volume of repo deals at the Kazakhstan market in September on comparable operations totaled 100%, in August 2007 - 99.9%. Structure of repo market turnover at KASE in analyzed month was as follows: - the stake of automatic repo transactions was 92.6% of the sector's turnover (KZT2,151.8 bn.), including deals in government securities (GS) - 82.1% (KZT1,908.2 bn.), deals in corporate securities (CS) - 10.5% (KZT243.6 bn.); - the stake of repo transactions, conducted by nego deals method, was 7.4% of the sector's turnover (KZT172.4 bn.), including deals in GS - 0.2% (KZT4.6 bn.), deals in CS - 7.2% (KZT167.7 bn.). For comparison, structure of stock exchange's repo market in August 2007 was as follows: autorepo - 94.0% (GS - 84.5%; CS - 9.5%); repo by nego method - 6.0% (GS - 0.3%; CS - 5.7%). The data, given below, prove that the National Bank of Kazakhstan achieved to stabilize the situation on financial market of Kazakhstan. The set of undertaken measures allowed decreasing the banks' need in tenge, which had a positive influence on prices of shortest money. Repo rates on the majority of exchange instruments rolled down although their volatility at some deals remained very high. A sharp reduction of speculative potential of dollar by the National bank on domestic market played a sizable role. In fact, in September, the banks satisfied only objective demand on American currency since playing on price spreads was meaningless. Below tables are given, which characterize primary segments of repo market of KASE in September 2007 on opening operations in tenge (market's stake in titles of tables is given according to the actual volume of operations, including deals of opening and closing repo; information on direct deals with CS (7.2% of the market) are not published due to a very big volume of the table). Automatic repo with GS - 82.1% of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Instrument Volume, Num- Market ------------------------------------- ber (currency, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted KZT of share, term, days) deal mum mum deal average m. deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ---------- ----- ------ KZT_001 12.00 0.00 14.00 5.50 7.30 576,633.27 1471 61.70 KZT_002 7.50 5.00 10.50 7.20 6.85 23,765.01 22 2.54 KZT_003 9.00 6.00 11.14 7.50 8.74 20,439.01 39 2.19 KZT_007 9.00 5.50 12.00 9.00 9.00 300,673.12 401 32.17 KZT_014 10.00 6.50 11.00 9.00 9.59 11,703.04 88 1.25 KZT_028 9.50 9.00 11.00 10.50 9.91 1,421.01 21 0.15 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ---------- ----- ------ TOTAL 934,634.5 2,042 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Automatic repo with CS - 10.5% of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Instrument ------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Market (security, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of share, term, days) deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------ ASBN_030 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 1,927.09 5 1.68 ASBNb3_001 9.00 7.50 10.50 7.50 8.98 1,161.00 9 1.01 ASBNb3_003 10.50 97.00 1 0.08 ASBNb3_007 9.50 8.00 10.00 8.00 8.92 390.00 10 0.34 ASBNb4_001 7.00 7.00 10.50 10.50 9.62 40.00 2 0.03 ASBNb4_007 9.50 25.00 1 0.02 ASBNb4_014 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 192.00 2 0.17 ASFI_030 14.00 69.00 1 0.06 ASFIb5_007 10.00 8.00 12.00 8.00 10.91 227.00 6 0.20 ASFIb5_014 10.00 9.50 11.00 11.00 10.52 1,115.00 6 0.97 ASFIb7_001 10.50 7.50 10.50 7.50 9.15 6,365.00 11 5.54 ASFIb7_003 10.50 432.00 1 0.38 ASFIb7_007 9.00 8.00 9.00 8.00 8.39 710.00 4 0.62 ASFIb7_014 10.00 10.00 11.50 10.50 10.90 1,056.00 5 0.92 ASFIb8_001 10.00 140.00 1 0.12 ASFIb8_007 11.00 124.00 1 0.11 ASFIp_014 13.17 13.17 13.17 13.17 13.17 1,233.01 3 1.07 ASFIp_028 13.25 13.25 13.25 13.25 13.25 1,800.01 4 1.57 ATFBb4_001 10.50 10.00 11.00 11.00 10.19 1,724.00 5 1.50 ATFBb4_002 10.50 300.00 1 0.26 ATFBb4_014 10.00 9.00 13.50 10.00 12.88 1,322.00 6 1.15 ATFBb5_028 12.00 220.00 1 0.19 ATFBb6_007 9.50 9.50 11.00 11.00 10.21 210.00 2 0.18 ATFBb6_028 10.00 10.00 11.80 11.50 10.83 153.00 4 0.13 ATFBp8_001 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 68.00 3 0.06 ATFBp8_028 10.50 100.00 1 0.09 BTAIb5_014 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 314.00 2 0.27 BTAIb7_007 9.50 9.50 11.00 11.00 10.10 617.00 5 0.54 BTAIb7_030 11.50 124.00 1 0.11 BTAS_001 9.50 3.00 11.00 11.00 9.40 11,038.97 47 9.62 BTAS_007 10.00 8.00 12.00 11.50 10.29 6,230.11 59 5.43 BTAS_030 10.00 9.00 15.00 13.00 12.14 8,359.21 31 7.28 BTAS_090 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 4,700.39 10 4.09 BTASb3_014 11.00 10.50 11.00 10.50 10.80 165.01 2 0.14 BTASb4_007 9.00 9.00 12.00 12.00 9.99 1,408.05 14 1.23 BTASb4_014 10.00 10.00 11.00 10.00 10.35 667.03 5 0.58 BTASb5_001 8.50 8.50 11.00 11.00 9.57 1,140.02 5 0.99 BTASb5_007 10.00 9.00 11.00 11.00 9.98 1,939.03 8 1.69 BTASb5_028 11.00 11.00 11.50 11.50 11.17 477.01 2 0.42 BTASb7_001 6.00 6.00 11.00 8.50 9.29 1,108.03 8 0.97 BTASb7_007 10.00 8.00 11.00 11.00 8.41 2,978.04 15 2.59 BTASb7_030 12.50 12.50 15.00 15.00 14.32 956.01 4 0.83 CCBN_001 8.50 6.00 12.00 12.00 9.15 814.00 12 0.71 CCBN_007 10.00 8.00 12.00 11.00 10.17 246.01 7 0.21 CCBN_014 11.00 9.50 11.00 9.50 10.48 115.00 6 0.10 CCBN_030 9.00 9.00 13.00 12.50 11.63 865.00 7 0.75 CCBN_090 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 3,485.00 2 3.04 CCBNb12007 11.00 59.00 1 0.05 CCBNb7_003 10.00 440.00 1 0.38 CSBNb4_007 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 954.02 4 0.83 CSBNb5_001 10.50 8.50 10.50 10.00 9.11 655.05 6 0.57 CSBNb5_007 10.00 10.00 10.80 10.00 10.16 608.07 9 0.53 CSBNb6_001 10.50 174.01 1 0.15 CSBNb6_007 10.00 10.00 10.80 10.00 10.25 765.03 5 0.67 EUBNb3_001 10.00 7.00 10.20 10.20 8.94 755.00 5 0.66 EUBNb3_007 10.50 8.00 10.50 10.00 10.03 561.00 9 0.49 EUBNb3_014 9.00 9.00 11.00 10.00 10.85 444.00 5 0.39 EUBNb3_028 10.00 10.00 11.00 10.00 10.38 852.00 4 0.74 GLOTb2_028 11.00 179.00 1 0.16 HSBKb3_007 10.00 115.00 1 0.10 HSBKp1_001 9.50 8.00 11.00 11.00 8.96 537.00 4 0.47 HSBKp1_007 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 2,080.00 12 1.81 HSBKp1_030 12.00 300.00 1 0.26 KASTb1_028 12.00 500.00 1 0.44 KASTb2_007 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 3,000.00 3 2.61 KKGB_001 10.50 8.00 10.50 9.00 10.17 464.00 6 0.40 KKGB_007 11.00 7.00 11.00 11.00 10.76 258.00 5 0.22 KKGB_028 10.00 9.00 11.50 10.50 10.30 653.01 11 0.57 KKGBb2_007 10.50 9.50 11.00 9.50 10.38 971.26 6 0.85 KKGBb2_028 10.00 288.08 1 0.25 KKGBb4_014 10.00 132.01 1 0.11 KKGBb5_007 8.00 251.00 1 0.22 KKGBp_001 10.50 10.50 11.00 11.00 10.75 64.00 2 0.06 KKGBp_028 10.00 10.00 11.50 11.50 10.08 232.00 2 0.20 KZIKb10007 8.00 750.00 1 0.65 KZIKb11001 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 1,240.00 2 1.08 KZIKb11003 11.00 40.00 1 0.03 KZIKb11007 11.00 620.00 1 0.54 KZIKb12001 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 1,120.00 2 0.98 KZIKb12003 11.00 40.00 1 0.03 KZIKb12007 11.00 560.00 1 0.49 KZIKb12028 10.00 462.00 1 0.40 KZIKb2_014 10.50 110.00 1 0.10 KZIKb3_014 10.50 225.00 1 0.20 KZIKb8_007 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 169.00 4 0.15 KZIKb9_001 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 676.00 2 0.59 KZIKb9_003 11.00 798.00 1 0.70 KZIKb9_007 11.00 338.00 1 0.29 KZTC_001 11.00 9.00 12.00 12.00 10.95 1,748.15 14 1.52 KZTCb1_001 9.00 9.00 10.50 10.50 9.92 18.00 2 0.02 KZTCb1_007 10.00 8.00 10.00 8.00 9.22 130.00 10 0.11 KZTK_001 10.50 10.50 11.50 11.50 10.86 168.03 2 0.15 KZTK_003 9.00 9.00 10.00 10.00 9.57 140.03 2 0.12 KZTK_007 10.00 8.00 12.00 8.00 11.04 106.05 5 0.09 KZTK_014 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 21.00 2 0.02 KZTK_028 10.00 10.00 11.50 11.30 10.60 925.16 11 0.81 NFBN_028 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 500.01 4 0.44 NRBNb2_001 10.50 10.00 10.50 10.00 10.17 1,354.02 3 1.18 NRBNb2_028 13.50 445.01 1 0.39 NRBNb4_001 10.50 10.00 10.50 10.00 10.16 629.00 4 0.55 NRBNb4_007 13.50 10.00 13.50 13.50 13.42 832.00 5 0.72 NRBNb5_001 10.50 10.00 10.50 10.00 10.05 821.00 3 0.72 NRBNb5_007 13.50 13.50 13.50 13.50 13.50 2,918.00 7 2.54 ORDB_007 10.00 10.00 10.50 10.50 10.37 196.01 3 0.17 ORDB_028 14.50 12.50 14.50 12.50 13.67 896.01 10 0.78 ORNKb1_014 12.00 100.00 1 0.09 ORNKb1_028 11.00 10.00 1 0.01 PRKRb2_028 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 1,041.00 10 0.91 RDGZ_001 6.00 6.00 10.50 10.00 9.66 1,758.08 21 1.53 RDGZ_007 10.00 9.00 11.00 11.00 9.67 95.02 3 0.08 RDGZ_014 9.00 9.00 11.00 11.00 10.55 304.01 5 0.26 RDGZ_028 11.00 9.00 12.00 11.50 11.78 2,759.08 14 2.40 RGBRb3_001 11.00 40.00 1 0.03 RGBRb3_007 10.00 28.00 1 0.02 RGBRb4_014 11.50 10.00 11.50 10.00 10.66 247.00 5 0.22 RGBRb4_028 11.00 4.00 1 0.00 ROSA_090 11.00 120.00 1 0.10 TEBN_001 9.00 9.00 12.00 12.00 10.66 1,205.01 6 1.05 TEBN_007 11.00 10.00 11.00 10.00 10.30 296.00 2 0.26 TEBNp_030 10.50 100.00 1 0.09 TSBN_007 9.00 20.00 1 0.02 TSBN_014 10.00 20.00 1 0.02 TSBN_030 7.50 7.50 13.50 13.50 13.12 546.00 3 0.48 TSBNb3_001 10.00 158.00 1 0.14 TSBNb3_007 10.00 158.00 1 0.14 UTMK_030 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 1,500.04 3 1.31 VITAb4_030 12.00 50.00 1 0.04 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------ ИТОГО 114,793.3 648 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo on direct deals with GS - 0.2% of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Term of ------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Market repo, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of share, days deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ ------ 1 5.50 120.43 1 8.77 4 5.50 120.43 1 8.77 10 9.00 37.00 1 2.69 14 9.00 163.61 1 11.91 31 6.18 6.18 10.50 10.50 8.19 225.10 3 16.38 34 6.13 6.13 6.13 6.13 6.13 381.43 3 27.76 35 6.11 250.90 1 18.26 48 9.00 75.00 1 5.46 ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ ------ TOTAL 1,373.9 12 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------- [2007-10-08]