ANALYSIS: As of September 1 of 2007 the total state debt of Kazakhstan, issued as GS along with servicing totaled KZT1,310.2 bn. or $10.4 bn.

/IRBIS, Zaure Yessimova, Andrey Tsalyuk, September 17, 07/ - As of September 1 of 2007, the total state debt of Kazakhstan, issued as government securities (GS), including municipal bonds, along with the servicing (amount of coupon payments) equaled in current prices to KZT1,310.2 bn., or $10,377.9 m. at the rate of KZT126.25 per a dollar. IRBIS specialists made such a conclusion after analyzing its databases. While making the analysis, the amounts of future payments on MEIKAM were calculated taking into consideration consumer price index, which had been fixed for the period from June to August of 2007 inclusive, on MEUJKAM and MUIKAM - from September of 2006 to August of 2007 inclusive. Within August 1 - 31 of 2007 the total debt in tenge equivalent decreased by KZT189.7 bn. (-12.7%), in dollar equivalent by 1,759.6 m. (-14.5%) (taking into account change of exchange rate of National Bank). Similar indicators of debt change in July of 2007 were plus KZT5.7 bn. (+0.4%) or minus $79.1 m. (-0.6%). Following table contains detailed information. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt ------------------------------ Change as of for the *Currency of August 31, 07 as of period ------------- ------------------ July 31, 07 ---------------- Issuer issue service bn. KZT stake, % bn. KZT m. KZT % --------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ----------- ---------- ----- National Bank KZT KZT 669.510 51.1 869.588 -200,078.3 -23.0 --------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ----------- ---------- ----- Ministry of Finance 637.633 48.7 627.359 +10,273.9 +1.6 incl. face value KZT KZT 448.973 34.3 446.723 +2,250.0 +0.5 incl. servicing KZT KZT 188.660 14.4 180.636 +8,023.9 +4.4 --------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ----------- ---------- ----- Akimat of Atyrau obl. USD KZT 3.070 0.2 3.014 +56.2 +1.9 incl. face value USD KZT 2.829 0.2 2.778 +51.8 +1.9 incl. servicing USD KZT 0.240 0.02 0.236 +4.4 +1.9 --------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ----------- ---------- ----- TOTAL 1,310.212 100.0 1,499.960 -189,748.2 -12.7 incl. face value 1,121.312 85.6 1,319.088 -197,776.5 -15.0 incl. servicing 188.900 14.4 180.872 +8,028.3 +4.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. Equivalents as of August 31, 07 were calculated at the rate of KZT126.25 per a dollar, as of July 31, 07 - at KZT123.58. Therefore, the data shown in the table reflect the dynamics turned out with exchange rate fluctuations besides all other factors. Similar figures in U.S. dollars are given in the table as follows. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt ---------------------------- Change as of for the *Currency of Aug 31, 07 as of period ------------- ----------------- Jul 30, 07 ------------------ Issuer issue service m. USD stake, % m. USD th. USD % --------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ------------ ----- National Bank KZT KZT 5,303.0 51.1 7,036.6 -1,733,592.7 -24.6 --------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ------------ ----- Ministry of Finance 5,050.6 48.7 5,076.5 -25,984.0 -0.5 incl. face value KZT KZT 3,556.2 34.3 3,614.8 -58,626.9 -1.6 incl. servicing KZT KZT 1,494.3 14.4 1,461.7 +32,642.8 +2.2 --------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ------------ ----- Akimat of Atyrau obl. USD KZT 24.32 0.2 24.39 -70.8 -0.3 incl. face value USD KZT 22.4 0.2 22.5 -65.3 -0.3 incl. servicing USD KZT 1.9 0.02 1.9 -5.5 -0.3 --------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ------------ ----- TOTAL 10,377.9 100.0 12,137.6 -1,759,647.6 -14.5 incl. face value 8,881.7 85.6 10,674.0 -1,792,284.8 -16.8 incl. servicing 1,496.2 14.4 1,463.6 +32,637.3 +2.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. According to the data of IRBIS, the issue volume of the National Bank's GS in August 2007 by amounts of offering was KZT54,468.1 m. (in July - KZT266,375.8 m.). At that, the issuer paid off or redeemed his notes on secondary market for a total sum of KZT255,468.2 (KZT286,327.8 m.). Thus in August the net-borrowing balance of the National Bank in GS market was minus KZT200,000.1 m. Corresponding index in July was minus KZT19,951.9 ("minus" sign in balance indicator means that the mentioned sum was withdrawn from issuer's budget and remained in investors' possession, "plus" sign - issuer borrowed more than redeemed). Thus National Bank in analyzed month had used its notes for increase of tenge liquidity on the market, considering the particularities of situation, in which Kazakhstan STB found themselves in August. In July the Ministry of finance borrowed by offering of MEKAM KZT2,250.4 m. (in July - KZT9,034.4 m.) and paid face values of bonds and coupon payments for a total of KZT1,159.9 m. (in July - KZT1,453.7 m.). August net- borrowing balance of the Ministry of finance is estimated by IRBIS at plus KZT1,090.5 m. (in July - plus KZT7,580.4 m.). Total August net-borrowing balance of all Kazakhstan GS issuers including municipal bodies was estimated by IRBIS at minus KZT199,909.6 m. Similar indicator of July - minus KZT12,371.5 m. Agency IRBIS draws attention of subscribers and mass media that the data given below are not official statistics and received by result of analysis of information, containing in database of the agency on the primary GS market. In part of internal bonds the bases of agency are adjusted by data provided to IRBIS by Central depositary of securities JSC (Almaty). [2007-09-17]