ANALYSIS: In August 2007 the volume of deals on Kazakhstan corporate bonds market decreased to two years' minimum

17.09.07 15:33
/IRBIS, Natalya Khoroshevskaya, September 17, 07/ - In August 2007 on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) 152 deals were made with corporate bonds in all sectors of the market, including deals, performed on the special trading floor of the Regional financial center of Almaty (STF RFCA) for a total of KZT16,374.8 m. or USD131.2 m. at the current rate effective on deals concluding dates. The stated amount is 30.2% of monthly turnover of corporate securities market (in July 2007 - 33.9%) and 0.4% of monthly exchange turnover (1.0%). Statistic characteristic of corporate bonds market on KASE in July and August of 2007 (indicators are given taking into account direct deals) --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Month: Trend ------------------- August 2007 August July compared to Indicator 2007 2007 Jul 2007 ------------------------------------------- --------- --------- ----------- Trades volume, th., USD 131,243.9 267,377.0 -50.9% Trades volume, m., KZT 16,374.8 32,857.3 -50.2% including, on offerings, th. USD 4,097.6 62,021.0 -93.4% including, on offerings, m. KZT 505.3 7,638.5 -93.4% including, on STF RFCA, th. USD 102.7 253.7 -59.5% including, on STF RFCA, m. KZT 12.7 30.9 -59.1% Number of deals 152 239 -36.4% Number of instruments, 52 60 -13.3% involved in deals Stake of nego deals (number), % 1.3 1.7 -0.4 pp Stake of nego deals (volume), % <0.1 0.6 -0.6 pp Participation of pension assets, % gross 10.6 11.9 -1.34 pp Participation of physical entities, % gross 3.7 10.5 -6.8 pp Number of exchange's members, 31 34 -8.8% who made deals Market concentration, %* 50.9 62.3 -11.4 pp --------------------------------------------------------------------------- * it is specified the percentage out of total turnover of corporate bonds, which are numbered by the most traded securities (their quantity is 5% out of the total quantity of titles of corporate bonds, included in trading list of KASE) Exchange's market of corporate bonds still has the problems with liquidity, aggravating by so-called world crisis. Volume of deals in the given segment of market in August was record low for the last two years. Debt corporate instruments become the less attractive to investors - on the primary market investors now are striving to invest into dollar securities, and on secondary buyers can not reach the compromise with sellers due to strongly grown spreads. Price background of exchange's corporate bonds market in August looked enough balanced, though was characterized y big spreads. From 52 names of bonds, involved into deals on secondary market, 41 names of bonds were traded with discount, 10 - with premium. At ORDKb1 deals were still made at face value. The mostly re-bought seemed KRZHb1, average weighted net price of which made 117.71%, the mostly re-sold seemed AGKKb1 (84.28%). In July deals on secondary market were conducted with bonds of 60 names, 42 names of bonds were traded with discount, 17 with premium, 1 at face value. The mostly re-bought seemed ATFBe2 (117.51%), the mostly re-sold were NRBNb5 and ASFIb12 (correspondingly 89.32% and 89.69%. The weighted average net price of corporate bonds at the secondary market in August increased to 101.78% from 93.24% in July. For month the yield to maturity on concluded deals increased for a buyer of 30 corporate bonds, and decreased for 19 corporate bonds. There was nothing to compare with the yield of three securities. In July the corresponding indicators showed 31, 19 and 10. Tables, which additionally characterize the exchange market of corporate bonds in August, are given below. Change of lists of corporate bonds, traded on KASE, in August 2007 --------------------------------------------------- Bonds: Issuers: Category of ------------ Instruments ------------ admission number trend number trend number trend ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 196 +4 196 +4 62 +1 B 24 0 24 0 24 0 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 220 +4 220 +4 86 +1 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- C (STF RFCA) 52 +3 52 +3 16 +2 A+B+C 220 +4 272 +7 86 +1 --------------------------------------------------- Notes: "A", "B" - categories of the official list of KASE; "C" - category of the official list of STF RFCA in connection with launch of STF RFCA for the security (bond) of one denomination, two exchange instruments, differing with the code, with conditions of trades holding and payment making, can go with. Main indicators of KASE's corporate bond market in August 2007 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Market. value of Index Volume of Volume of debt, KASE_BY, Index Index deals, deals, Date USD m. % APR KASE_BP KASE_BC th. USD m. KZT ------------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- July 31,07 13,563.2 8.08 211.11 130.61 948.4 117.2 August 1, 07 13,568.9 8.06 211.31 130.72 6,772.0 835.0 August 2, 07 13,598.9 8.08 211.35 130.45 633.3 78.1 August 3, 07 13,550.3 7.65 213.34 132.00 36,882.9 4,571.3 August 6, 07 13,520.7 7.68 213.27 131.83 6,436.9 800.9 August 7, 07 13,500.6 8.07 211.06 130.34 10,107.4 1,260.9 August 8, 07 13,398.6 8.03 211.32 130.47 5,592.3 696.4 August 9, 07 13,598.3 8.04 211.43 130.54 9,751.8 1,216.6 August 10, 07 13,584.6 8.05 211.37 130.48 2,152.2 269.0 August 13, 07 13,570.8 8.06 211.41 130.42 9,725.6 1,217.4 August 14, 07 13,549.1 8.07 211.30 130.27 136.6 17.1 August 15, 07 13,678.6 7.70 213.70 131.87 185.0 23.2 August 16, 07 13,667.1 8.05 211.83 130.56 8.4 1.0 August 17, 07 13,694.3 8.07 211.73 130.49 402.1 50.3 August 20, 07 13,693.6 8.08 211.73 130.39 2,662.8 332.9 August 21, 07 13,691.3 8.07 211.95 130.49 10,848.0 1,356.4 August 22, 07 13,687.2 8.06 212.06 130.50 30.3 3.8 August 23, 07 13,674.3 7.67 214.47 132.14 1,800.9 225.6 August 24, 07 13,634.6 7.90 213.15 131.24 3,439.6 431.9 August 27, 07 13,607.2 8.07 212.33 130.60 79.8 10.1 August 28, 07 13,669.0 7.69 214.61 132.10 10,856.3 1,368.4 August 29, 07 13,654.5 7.68 214.80 132.19 12,739.6 1,608.4 ------------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- Trend +91.4 -0.4 +3.7 +1.6 ,% +0.67 -4.89 +1.75 +1.21 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Summary data on the results of bond trades on KASE in August 2007 (purchase and sale, including offerings, without consideration of nego deals) ----------------------------------------------------------------- Yield to maturity for a buyer, % APR: ------------------------------------- on or last Code the last deal: 365 days Volume of bond -------------- ---------- of deals, Number on KASE min. max. yield trend, % min. max. th. USD of deals ------- ----- ----- ----- -------- ----- ----- --------- -------- AGKKb1 13.00 13.00 13.00 10.00 13.00 33.6 1 aMAG_b1 12.00 12.00 12.00 11.69 12.50 102.7 1 ASAVb2 10.50 10.50 10.50 9.00 10.50 39.8 1 ASBNb1 12.15 12.15 12.15 +1.94 9.00 12.70 101.6 1 ASBNb3 8.61 8.61 8.61 8.03 11.80 4,655.0 1 ASBNb4 12.50 15.00 15.00 +1.00 8.10 18.20 101.2 6 ASBNb6 9.30 9.30 9.30 +0.60 8.49 10.00 16.7 1 ASBNb7 11.00 11.00 11.00 8.50 11.00 10,054.7 3 ASELb1 13.00 13.00 13.00 0 13.00 13.00 102.9 1 ASFIb12 9.00 9.00 9.00 0 9.00 9.90 1,569.2 3 ASFIb5 11.90 11.99 11.99 +1.99 8.83 12.00 311.5 2 ASNDb1 9.25 11.67 11.67 8.90 11.91 12,666.9 2 ATFBb3 7.01 7.01 7.01 -0.99 6.10 8.70 0.8 1 ATFBb4 7.00 7.00 7.00 -1.20 7.00 8.65 0.9 1 ATFBb6 9.00 9.00 9.00 0 8.49 9.00 1,019.3 1 BGSTb1 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 21,610.3 3 BRKZe1 3.77 6.17 6.17 3.77 6.17 26.8 2 BTAIb14 9.99 10.00 9.99 -0.01 7.30 10.00 10,859.5 3 BTASb1 9.00 11.00 11.00 0 9.00 11.50 46.9 2 BTASb2 10.10 11.00 11.00 8.50 11.20 43.7 3 BTASb7 7.00 8.00 7.00 0 7.00 8.60 24,765.5 21 CACMb1 9.75 9.75 9.75 9.75 9.80 3.8 1 CSBNb6 11.25 11.25 11.25 +2.14 8.50 11.25 0.7 1 DNTLb1 12.30 12.30 12.30 +0.30 12.00 12.30 77.5 2 DTJLb1 8.04 8.04 8.04 -1.46 8.02 9.50 2,812.6 1 EXBNb1 9.11 9.80 9.11 9.11 9.80 18,365.6 11 HSBKb11 7.86 8.50 8.50 7.50 8.50 49.1 3 HSBKb7 8.00 9.50 8.00 -1.00 7.00 9.50 59.9 5 HSBKb8 7.70 9.00 9.00 7.70 9.00 64.7 4 HSBKb9 7.72 7.72 7.72 7.57 7.72 399.0 1 ISKEb1 13.20 13.20 13.20 12.00 13.20 1,455.9 1 KAFIb1 8.20 8.60 8.20 8.20 8.60 5,434.8 3 KASTb2 10.20 10.20 10.20 +0.14 8.40 10.70 48.6 1 KATRb1 11.50 11.50 11.50 0 10.00 13.00 176.6 6 KAZIb2 10.50 10.50 10.50 0 10.10 10.50 80.6 1 KKGBb2 12.52 12.83 12.83 1.89 15.70 21.4 2 KRZHb1 7.73 7.73 7.73 7.73 12.00 17.1 1 KZIKb10 6.50 7.00 7.00 5.50 8.60 30.8 2 KZIKb2 8.60 8.60 8.60 8.60 8.60 16.0 1 KZIKb7 7.99 8.50 7.99 -0.26 7.00 9.50 617.3 4 KZNHb2 11.50 11.50 11.50 0 9.85 13.50 251.0 1 KZTCb1 13.20 13.50 13.50 +0.50 8.20 13.50 19.1 2 NFBNb1 13.00 14.00 13.00 -0.50 10.00 14.00 388.2 3 NRBNb2 13.00 13.00 13.00 8.20 13.00 2,667.3 1 NRBNb4 13.50 14.00 14.00 8.20 15.00 27.8 2 ORDKb1 11.99 12.00 11.99 -0.01 11.99 13.00 81.3 2 ORNKb1 10.00 12.50 11.00 6.35 14.14 4,614.0 4 PRKRb2 9.90 9.90 9.90 8.00 10.20 744.3 1 RGBRb4 8.00 12.00 12.00 +3.00 8.00 13.50 166.7 11 TEBNb12 10.80 10.80 10.80 +2.30 8.50 11.00 96.7 1 TEBNb2 14.00 14.00 14.00 13.50 16.00 114.6 8 TSBNb4 8.50 8.90 8.50 -0.50 8.50 10.20 113.7 2 ------- ----- ----- ----- -------- ----- ----- --------- -------- 52 127,146.3 149 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Comments: Securities were sorted in alphabetical order according to codes of bonds. Trends are given in percentage points (1pp = 100 basis points) relative to the last deal of previous month - July 2007. In the code of bond by the number is noted the number of bonds' issue. In case of number absence (old quotation) is meant the first emission. The full list of codes of issuers is available at http://www.kase.kz/instruments/nzb_code.htm. [2007-09-17]