ANALYSIS: In June of 2007 conjuncture of corporate bonds market almost remained the same

16.07.07 21:11
/IRBIS, Ruslan Dzyubailo, June 16, 07/ - In June 2007 on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) 229 deals were made with corporate bonds in all sectors of the market, including deals, performed on the special trading floor of the Regional financial center of Almaty (STF RFCA) for a total of KZT72,860.5 m. or USD597.2 m. at the current rate effective on deals concluding dates. The stated amount is 16.9% of monthly turnover of corporate securities market (in May of 2007 - 37.2%) and 1.7% of monthly exchange turnover (1.2%). Statistic characteristic of corporate bonds market on KASE in June and May of 2007 (indicators are given taking into account direct deals) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Month: -------------------- Trend June June 2007 2007 May compared to Indicator 2007 May 2007 ------------------------------------------- --------- --------- ----------- Trades volume, th., USD 597,183.4 288,511.9 +107.0% Trades volume, m., KZT 72,860.5 34,882.2 +108.9% including, on offerings, th. USD 8.3 0 Х including, on offerings, m. KZT 1.0 0 Х including, on STF RFCA, th. USD 343,737.8 0 X including, on STF RFCA, m. KZT 41,860.5 0 X Number of deals 229 228 +0.4% Number of instruments, 71 65 +9.2% involved in deals Stake of nego deals (number), % 1.3 2.6 -1.3pp Stake of nego deals (volume), % 0.3 1.2 -0.9pp Participation of pension assets, % gross 3.4 11.9 -8.5pp Participation of physical entities, % gross 2.6 14.4 -11.8pp Number of exchange's members, 54 34 +58.8% who made deals Market concentration, %* 81.1 59.9 +21.2pp ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ * it is specified the percentage out of total turnover of corporate bonds, which are numbered by the most traded securities (their quantity is 5% out of the total quantity of titles of corporate bonds, included in trading list of KASE) The double growth of bonds market turnover in June occurred because of several big deals made on STF RFCA on June 12 for a total of KZT41.8 bn. or $343.0 m. (57% of market turnover). As the whole the secondary market of corporate bonds in June was like it was in May. It still had low instruments liquidity and stability of prices. Price background of exchange's corporate bonds market in June is as follows below. In June bonds of 39 denominations, out of 71 bonds involved into deals on the secondary market, were traded with discount, with premium - 30. Deals with ASBNb3 and ORDKb1 were traded at the face value. KKGBb2, MREKb2, MREKb3 and CCBNb4 seemed to be most over-purchased, they were traded with 13.00%, 10,62%, 10,44% and 10,34% premium towards the face value. At that, BTASb7 and NRBNb5 seemed to be most oversold, their weighted average prices were 83,78% and 88,12%. In May deals with bonds of 65 denominations were made on the secondary market, securities of 39 denominations were traded with discount, 25 - with premium, 1 security - at face value. KKGBb2 seemed to be most over-purchased (115.98%), ASFIb9 - most oversold (85.11%). Despite the growth of weighted average net price of corporate bonds on the secondary market up to 100.10% (in May - 98.68%), KASE_BY index grew by 0.2 percentage points to 8.16%. In May, according to concluded deals, 32 bonds' yields to maturity for buyer grew, 33 bonds' yields fell. There was nothing to compare yields of four securities with. Similar indicators in May - 29, 30 and 5. Tables, which additionally characterize the exchange market of corporate bonds in June, are given below. Change of lists of corporate bonds, traded on KASE, in June of 2007 --------------------------------------------------------- Bonds: Issuers: Category of ------------- Instruments ------------- admission number trend number trend number trend ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 190 +3 190 +3 61 0 B 22 0 22 0 22 0 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 212 -2 212 -2 83 0 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- C (STF RFCA) 49 +9 49 +9 14 +2 A+B+C 212 -2 261 +7 83 0 --------------------------------------------------------- Notes: "A", "B" - categories of the official list of KASE; "C" - category of the official list of STF RFCA in connection with launch of STF RFCA for the security (bond) of one denomination, two exchange instruments, differing with the code, with conditions of trades holding and payment making, can go with. Main indicators of KASE's corporate bond market in June of 2007 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Market. value of Index Volume of Volume of debt, KASE_BY, Index Index deals, deals, Date USD m. % APR KASE_BP KASE_BC th. USD m. KZT ----------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- May 31, 07 13,137.4 7.99 208.31 130.45 5,782.1 707.8 June 1, 07 13,233.0 7.94 209.07 130.93 1,071.0 130.9 June 4, 07 13,292.6 7.95 208.96 130.82 3,144.7 382.8 June 5, 07 13,628.8 7.96 209.01 130.80 15.4 1.9 June 6, 07 13,684.7 7.96 209.05 130.78 59.5 7.2 June 7, 07 13,683.8 8.00 208.67 130.50 33,783.0 4,085.4 June 8, 07 13,667.6 7.96 209.09 130.79 669.2 81.0 June 11, 07 13,614.0 7.97 209.00 130.63 0.9 0.1 June 12, 07 13,623.5 7.98 209.00 130.59 352,235.5 42,895.2 June 13, 07 13,624.2 7.98 208.98 130.57 4,734.0 576.6 June 14, 07 13,620.8 7.98 209.08 130.59 1,097.4 133.7 June 15, 07 13,568.3 7.99 208.93 130.48 36,286.3 4,450.9 June 18, 07 13,598.1 7.98 209.19 130.58 1,350.0 165.0 June 19, 07 13,588.4 8.02 208.95 130.36 3,420.8 418.6 June 20, 07 13,528.9 8.04 208.80 130.22 1,354.0 166.5 June 21, 07 13,526.1 8.01 209.24 130.52 2,651.4 326.2 June 22, 07 13,555.5 8.01 209.33 130.53 3,522.7 431.9 June 25, 07 13,530.1 8.02 209.27 130.43 7,926.1 970.9 June 26, 07 13,586.5 8.04 209.16 130.29 1,175.7 143.0 June 27, 07 13,570.9 7.70 211.45 131.81 101,194.9 12,242.6 June 28, 07 13,528.0 8.03 209.50 130.42 7,084.8 861.9 June 29, 07 13,375.2 8.16 209.36 129.87 32,369.8 3,959.1 ----------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- Trend +237.7 +0.2 +1.0 -0.6 % +1.81 +2.09 +0.50 -0.45 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Summary data on the results of bond trades on KASE in June of 2007 (purchase and sale, including offerings, without consideration of nego deals) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yield to maturity for a buyer, % APR: ---------------------------------------------- for Code on the last deal: last 365 days Volume of bond ----------------- ------------- of deals, Number on KASE min. max. yield trend, % min. max. th. USD of deals -------- ----- ----- ------ --------- ------ ----- --------- -------- aASFIb13 7.88 7.88 7.88 7.88 7.88 343,652.6 22 aMAG_b1 11.90 11.91 11.91 11.69 12.50 85.2 2 ASBNb1 10.01 10.01 10.01 -0.84 9.00 12.00 104.8 2 ASBNb3 9.79 10.34 9.79 -0.07 8.03 11.80 560.4 3 ASBNb4 8.50 8.50 8.50 -1.50 8.10 12.00 41.1 1 ASBNb5 8.50 8.50 8.50 -0.80 8.00 11.00 41.4 1 ASBNb7 9.02 9.04 9.04 +0.54 8.50 9.04 26,149.3 4 ASBNb8 9.68 9.68 9.68 +0.07 9.51 9.70 9,026.5 1 ASELb1 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 509.2 3 ASFIb12 9.00 9.70 9.00 0 9.00 9.90 19,684.1 4 ASFIb4 9.72 9.72 9.72 -1.58 9.48 11.30 239.0 4 ASFIb5 9.79 11.81 11.81 +0.48 8.83 11.81 6,303.1 10 ASFIb6 10.00 10.00 10.00 9.50 11.94 91.8 4 ASFIb7 11.00 11.00 11.00 +0.18 8.50 11.00 241.9 5 ASNDb1 9.25 9.25 9.25 8.90 11.00 2,123.5 1 ATFBb4 8.10 8.10 8.10 -0.10 8.10 8.27 1,280.3 2 ATFBb5 8.65 8.70 8.65 +0.50 7.75 10.01 2,909.8 4 ATFBb6 8.50 8.50 8.50 0 8.49 8.50 382.8 1 BTAIb14 8.50 9.00 9.00 8.50 9.00 4,801.9 3 BTAIb5 8.30 8.30 8.30 0 8.30 10.00 2.5 3 BTASb1 11.00 11.00 11.00 +0.50 9.00 11.50 52.9 1 BTASb2 10.10 10.50 10.50 8.50 11.20 192.4 4 BTASb3 10.10 10.18 10.18 7.50 10.91 2,387.4 3 BTASb4 9.44 9.44 9.44 -0.26 7.00 11.10 155.3 1 BTASb7 7.00 8.52 8.52 +1.52 6.85 8.60 103,572.7 14 CCBNb14 8.70 9.20 9.00 +0.51 8.49 9.20 11,122.9 4 CCBNb15 9.20 9.20 9.20 9.20 9.20 467.3 1 CCBNb4 8.00 8.00 8.00 0 7.97 8.25 24.2 1 CSBNb2 9.70 9.70 9.70 9.70 9.70 14.7 1 DNTLb1 12.30 12.30 12.30 12.00 12.30 98.3 1 EUBNb3 9.00 9.00 9.00 -0.50 8.20 9.70 212.1 1 EXBNb1 9.25 9.25 9.25 9.25 9.70 10,325.3 3 GLOTb2 9.20 9.20 9.20 -0.80 9.20 10.00 2,161.4 2 HSBKb3 6.92 6.92 6.92 6.92 8.80 24.5 1 HSBKb7 8.75 8.75 8.75 7.00 8.75 11.6 1 HSBKb8 7.70 7.70 7.70 7.70 7.70 449.8 2 ISKEb1 12.00 12.00 12.00 0 12.00 12.00 287.2 2 KASSb1 9.50 9.50 9.50 8.80 9.50 1,859.7 5 KATRb1 10.83 11.50 11.50 0 10.00 13.00 4,559.4 13 KAZIb1 11.00 11.00 11.00 0 10.00 11.13 75.4 1 KAZIb2 10.50 10.50 10.50 +0.17 10.10 10.50 104.5 1 KDTSb1 10.93 10.93 10.93 +0.23 10.00 10.93 31.1 1 KKAGb3 10.02 10.02 10.02 9.20 10.50 210.8 1 KKGBb2 9.00 11.58 11.58 +2.11 1.89 12.73 248.0 5 KKGBb4 9.00 9.00 9.00 6.00 9.00 10.0 1 KZASb2 8.70 8.70 8.70 0 8.00 8.90 675.1 5 KZIKb12 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.00 8.00 8,328.2 2 KZIKb6 6.20 6.20 6.20 6.20 7.20 0.9 1 KZIKb7 7.20 7.20 7.20 5.00 9.50 30.8 2 KZIKb8 7.00 8.10 8.10 7.00 8.80 4,122.8 2 KZNHb2 11.48 11.50 11.50 +0.16 9.50 13.50 172.1 3 KZTCb1 8.32 8.32 8.32 8.10 10.00 36.7 1 MREKb2 9.05 9.10 9.10 8.75 9.10 227.1 2 MREKb3 9.00 9.00 9.00 0 8.50 9.50 131.2 1 MREKb4 9.45 9.45 9.45 9.45 9.45 6,605.9 11 NRBNb3 8.00 9.50 9.50 +1.35 8.00 9.50 46.3 3 NRBNb4 13.40 13.45 13.40 +0.40 8.20 15.00 911.4 4 NRBNb5 9.50 9.50 9.50 +0.60 8.30 9.50 15.1 1 ORDBb2 11.98 12.01 12.01 -0.99 10.00 13.50 492.2 3 ORDKb1 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 13.00 46.4 1 RGBRb4 8.00 8.00 8.00 -1.00 8.00 9.20 2,104.1 2 TEBNb3 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 1,628.0 4 TEBNb6 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 1,468.9 3 TEBNb9 9.00 9.00 9.00 0 8.80 9.05 210.8 2 TMLZb1 11.50 13.00 13.00 +2.00 11.00 13.00 3,930.1 3 TSBNb3 9.50 10.00 9.50 8.67 12.00 52.0 3 TXBNb2 9.10 9.49 9.49 +0.29 8.70 11.00 855.8 3 TXBNb3 8.64 8.64 8.64 8.50 10.54 5,226.5 3 UKPFb1 13.50 13.50 13.50 0 9.99 13.50 353.1 5 VITAb4 10.00 10.00 10.00 -0.41 9.00 11.80 177.9 2 VITAb5 9.59 9.59 9.59 +0.09 9.12 11.40 399.3 2 -------- ----- ----- ------ --------- ------ ----- --------- -------- 71 595,138.8 225 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Comments: Securities were sorted in alphabetical order according to codes of bonds. Trends are given in percentage points (1pp = 100 basis points) relative to the last deal of previous month - May of 2007. In the code of bond by the number is noted the number of bonds' issue. In case of number absence (old quotation) is meant the first emission. The full list of codes of issuers is available at http://www.kase.kz/instruments/nzb_code.htm. [2007-07-16]