ANALYSIS: In May 2007 corporate bonds market still reminds less liquid

13.06.07 19:22
/IRBIS, Natalya Khoroshevskaya, June 13, 07/ - In May 2007 on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) 228 deals were made with corporate bonds in all sectors of the market, including deals, performed on the special trading floor of the Regional financial center of Almaty (STF RFCA) for a total of KZT34,882.2 m. or USD288.5 m. at the current rate effective on deals concluding dates. The stated amount is 37.2% of monthly turnover of corporate securities market (in April 2007 - 41.6%) and 1.2% of monthly exchange turnover (1.0%). Statistic characteristic of corporate bonds market on KASE in May and April of 2007 (indicators are given taking into account direct deals) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Month: -------------------- Trend March 2007 May April compared to Indicator 2007 2007 Feb 2007 ------------------------------------------- --------- --------- ----------- Trades volume, th., USD 288,511.9 247,854.5 +16.4% Trades volume, m., KZT 34,882.2 30,169.5 +15.6% including, on offerings, th. USD 0 15,452.3 Х including, on offerings, m. KZT 0 1,897.0 Х including, on STF RFCA, th. USD 0 0 X including, on STF RFCA, m. KZT 0 0 X Number of deals 228 312 -26.9% Number of instruments, 65 90 -27.8pp involved in deals Stake of nego deals (number), % 2.6 5.1 -2.5pp Stake of nego deals (volume), % 1.2 5.0 -3.7pp Participation of pension assets, % gross 11.9 8.0 +3.83pp Participation of physical entities, % gross 14.4 14.6 -0.2pp Number of exchange's members, 34 36 -5.6% who made deals Market concentration, %* 59.9 42.6 +17.3pp ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ * it is specified the percentage out of total turnover of corporate bonds, which are numbered by the most traded securities (their quantity is 5% out of the total quantity of titles of corporate bonds, included in trading list of KASE) Secondary market of corporate bonds in May did nto bring anything new. Market is still characterized by low liquidity and relative stability of prices. The price background of exchange market of corporate bonds in May is characterized by he next statistics. In the analyzed month out of 65 bonds denominations, involved in deals at the secondary market, 39 denominations were traded lower than the nominal value; 25 were traded with premium. On PRKRb1 the only deal was conducted by nominal in the frames of redeeming of the given bonds by the issuer. KKGBb2 still looked the most overpurchased (their weighted average net price for the month totaled 115.98%), the most oversold were- ASFIb9 (85.11%). In April deals at the secondary market were carried out with bonds of 90 denominations, securities of 54 denominations were traded with discount, 35 - with premium, 1 security - at face value. KKGBb2 looked most overpurchased (120.08%), most oversold - BTAIb11 (85.02%). The weighted average net price of corporate bonds at the secondary market in May totaled 99.68%, in April - 99.77%. In May on concluded deals the yield to maturity for a buyer of 29 corporate bonds increased, of 30 decreased. There was nothing to compare with the yield of five securities. In April the corresponding indicators are 54, 31 and 5. The step by step increase of yield of corporate bonds is still happening, though it is shading by exclusively high volatility of KASE_BY index, connected with imperfection of methods of its calculation. Tables, which additionally characterize the exchange market of corporate bonds in April, are given below. Change of lists of corporate bonds, traded on KASE, in May 2007 --------------------------------------------------------- Bonds: Issuers: Category of ------------- Instruments ------------- admission number trend number trend number trend ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 192 0 192 0 61 0 B 22 +1 22 +1 22 +1 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 214 +1 214 +1 83 +1 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- C (STF RFCA) 40 -1 40 -1 12 0 A+B+C 214 +1 254 0 83 +1 --------------------------------------------------------- Notes: "A", "B" - categories of the official list of KASE; "C" - category of the official list of STF RFCA in connection with launch of STF RFCA for the security (bond) of one denomination, two exchange instruments, differing with the code, with conditions of trades holding and payment making, can go with. Main indicators of KASE's corporate bond market in May 2007 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Market. value of Index Volume of Volume of debt, KASE_BY, Index Index deals, deals, Date USD m. % APR KASE_BP KASE_BC th. USD m. KZT ----------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- April 30,07 13,615.9 7.97 205.89 129.66 5,279.5 634.1 May 2, 07 13,733.4 7.75 207.40 130.59 5,191.0 624.2 May 3, 07 13,754.7 8.18 205.67 129.26 754.9 90.5 May 4, 07 13,790.5 8.20 205.38 129.17 9,750.8 1,163.1 May 7, 07 13,692.1 8.19 205.48 129.21 10,511.2 1,248.6 May 8, 07 13,449.8 8.19 205.34 129.06 5,475.0 653.3 May 10, 07 13,469.8 7.53 209.90 132.08 3,932.7 471.8 May 11, 07 13,442.8 7.91 207.85 130.66 4,384.9 527.9 May 14, 07 13,463.4 7.91 207.89 130.62 11,175.2 1,342.1 May 15, 07 13,501.0 7.93 207.80 130.54 8,423.5 1,007.4 May 16, 07 13,494.1 7.94 207.78 130.51 5,718.8 683.8 May 17, 07 13,433.5 7.92 207.98 130.61 11,817.2 1,423.5 May 18, 07 13,429.1 7.92 208.16 130.65 5,512.0 664.6 May 21, 07 13,453.6 7.92 208.15 130.64 14,781.6 1,775.9 May 22, 07 13,456.2 7.58 210.27 132.02 31,641.0 3,801.4 May 23, 07 13,462.8 7.93 208.59 130.78 9,018.0 1,082.0 May 24, 07 13,398.4 7.93 208.42 130.72 3,763.0 452.9 May 25, 07 13,378.2 7.94 208.40 130.68 17,867.5 2,156.2 May 28, 07 13,313.2 7.90 208.97 131.00 4,807.7 584.9 May 29, 07 13,288.8 7.53 211.43 132.58 108,369.2 13,224.3 May 30, 07 13,186.9 7.98 208.42 130.53 9,918.6 1,206.3 May 31, 07 13,137.4 7.99 208.31 130.45 5,782.3 707.9 ----------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- Trend -478.5 +0.02 +2.4 +0.8 ,% -3.51 +0.30 +1.18 +0.61 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Summary data on the results of bond trades on KASE in May 2007 (purchase and sale, including offerings, without consideration of nego deals) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yield to maturity for a buyer, % APR: ---------------------------------------------- for Code on the last deal: last 365 days Volume of bond ----------------- ------------- of deals, Number on KASE min. max. yield trend, % min. max. th. USD of deals ------- ----- ----- ------ --------- ------ ----- --------- -------- ALLZb1 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.00 10.50 3,545.9 3 ASBNb1 10.85 10.85 10.85 0 9.00 12.00 10.5 1 ASBNb3 8.03 10.50 9.87 -0.28 8.03 11.80 4,802.4 5 ASBNb4 9.30 10.00 10.00 8.10 11.50 47.4 3 ASBNb5 8.50 9.30 9.30 +1.30 8.00 9.30 47.1 3 ASBNb7 8.50 8.76 8.50 -0.51 8.50 9.01 16,080.3 3 ASBNb8 9.60 9.60 9.60 +0.05 9.51 9.70 4,450.3 1 ASFIb12 9.00 9.90 9.00 9.00 9.90 29,293.8 7 ASFIb4 11.30 11.30 11.30 0 9.39 11.30 5.6 1 ASFIb5 9.45 11.34 11.34 +1.83 8.83 11.50 1,644.9 12 ASFIb7 9.70 10.82 10.82 +1.22 8.50 11.00 1,188.7 5 ASFIb9 10.00 10.00 10.00 7.50 10.30 838.0 4 ATFBb3 6.70 6.70 6.70 -2.00 6.10 8.70 0.9 1 ATFBb4 8.20 8.20 8.20 8.16 8.20 485.6 2 ATFBb5 8.15 8.50 8.15 -1.11 7.75 9.28 4,323.6 3 ATFBb6 8.50 8.50 8.50 0 8.50 8.50 4,278.8 1 BIGRb1 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 7,535.7 3 BTAIb4 8.80 8.80 8.80 8.20 9.73 390.6 2 BTAIb5 8.30 8.30 8.30 8.30 10.00 0.9 1 BTASb1 10.00 10.50 10.50 -0.50 9.00 11.50 570.2 4 BTASb4 9.10 11.03 9.70 -1.37 7.00 11.10 1,632.4 7 BTASb7 7.00 7.50 7.00 -1.00 6.85 8.60 122,188.1 18 BTTRb1 9.00 9.00 9.00 0 8.00 9.00 249.5 1 CCBNb14 8.49 8.49 8.49 -0.01 8.49 9.20 278.5 1 CCBNb3 9.00 9.00 9.00 8.50 9.00 40.0 1 CCBNb4 8.00 8.00 8.00 7.97 8.25 69.1 2 CSBNb6 9.49 10.86 9.49 -1.01 8.50 10.86 1,504.9 3 EUBNb3 9.50 9.50 9.50 +0.20 8.00 9.70 3,318.7 2 GLOTb1 9.80 9.80 9.80 0 9.00 13.78 167.6 2 GLOTb2 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 42.2 1 ISKEb1 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 1,075.4 1 KAFIb1 8.30 8.50 8.50 0 8.30 8.50 6,498.1 5 KATRb1 11.50 12.00 11.50 0 10.00 13.00 510.4 7 KAZIb1 11.00 11.00 11.00 +0.02 10.00 11.13 2,090.5 7 KAZIb2 10.30 10.33 10.33 +0.03 10.10 10.50 909.4 4 KDTSb1 10.00 10.70 10.70 10.00 10.70 8,710.6 9 KKAGb1 11.80 11.80 11.80 0 10.71 12.30 155.2 3 KKGBb2 9.47 11.66 9.47 +0.47 1.89 12.73 67.2 5 KRZHb1 9.00 10.14 9.00 7.88 12.00 2,843.4 2 KZALb1 10.70 12.00 10.80 -1.50 9.32 12.30 2,881.6 4 KZASb2 8.70 8.70 8.70 0 8.00 8.90 270.3 2 KZIKb10 5.50 7.20 7.20 5.50 7.20 2,516.0 2 KZNHb2 11.20 11.34 11.34 +0.64 9.50 13.50 148.1 2 MREKb3 9.00 9.00 9.00 +0.50 8.50 9.50 132.1 2 NFBNb1 10.65 10.65 10.65 +0.48 10.00 11.77 3,052.4 1 NRBNb2 10.90 13.00 10.90 -1.60 7.99 13.00 256.4 3 NRBNb3 8.00 8.15 8.15 8.00 9.50 2,608.5 2 NRBNb4 9.30 15.00 13.00 +3.70 8.20 15.00 1,740.9 12 NRBNb5 8.90 8.96 8.90 0 8.30 9.50 78.0 2 ORDBb2 11.61 13.00 13.00 +1.30 10.00 13.50 2,243.8 3 ORNKb1 6.35 14.14 10.00 6.35 14.14 21,444.7 13 PRKRb1 8.01 8.01 8.01 8.01 8.08 5,266.5 1 PRKRb2 8.50 10.20 10.20 +2.20 7.71 10.20 5,134.7 6 RGBRb4 9.00 9.00 9.00 -0.20 9.00 9.20 233.1 1 TEBNb9 9.00 9.00 9.00 8.80 9.05 2,090.6 4 TMLZb1 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.50 125.2 2 TSBNb1 8.50 8.50 8.50 +0.09 8.41 10.25 135.5 2 TSBNb4 8.50 8.50 8.50 -0.50 8.50 10.20 254.1 1 TSBNb5 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.52 84.0 1 TSBNb6 9.50 9.50 9.50 -0.50 8.00 10.20 1,007.6 1 TSSMb1 10.44 10.50 10.50 +0.90 8.88 10.50 145.5 2 TXBNb2 8.76 9.90 9.20 -0.80 8.70 11.00 161.8 3 UKPFb1 13.50 13.50 13.50 0 9.99 13.50 94.1 1 VITAb4 10.15 10.41 10.41 -0.99 8.80 11.80 945.7 2 VITAb5 9.50 9.50 9.50 -1.90 9.12 11.40 19.3 1 ------- ----- ----- ------ --------- ------ ----- --------- -------- 65 284,963.2 222 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Comments: Securities were sorted in alphabetical order according to codes of bonds. Trends are given in percentage points (1pp = 100 basis points) relative to the last deal of previous month - April 2007. In the code of bond by the number is noted the number of bonds' issue. In case of number absence (old quotation) is meant the first emission. The full list of codes of issuers is available at http://www.kase.kz/instruments/nzb_code.htm. [2007-06-13]