ANALYSIS: Share market on KASE in April 2007 looked neutral in all relations

14.05.07 14:45
/IRBIS, Natalya Khoroshevskaya, Andrey Tsalyuk, May 14, 07/ - In April 2007 1,477 deals were registered in shares in all sectors , including deals, made on the special trading floor of the regional financial center of Almaty (STF RFCA) on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) for a total of KZT42,441.5 m. or $348.5 m. according to the current rate on dates, on which deals were made. The specified amount is 58.4% of the month turnover of the market of corporate securities on KASE (in March - 41.2%) and 1.4% of the entire month exchange turnover (1.8%). Statistic characteristic of shares market on KASE in April and March of year 2007 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Month: ------------------- Trend April March Mar 2007 Indicator 2007 2007 to Feb 2007 ---------------------------------------- --------- --------- ----------- Trades volume, th. USD 348,535.4 374,000.6 -6.8% Trades volume, m KZT 42,441.5 46,348.7 -8.4% Including on offerings, th. USD - - Х including on offerings, m. KZT - - Х including on STF RFCA, th. USD 23.6 39,896.3 -99.9% including on STF RFCA, m. KZT 2.9 4,944.0 -99.9% Number of deals 1,477 1,351 +9.3% Number of instruments, involved in deals 48 46 +4.3% Stake of nego deals (number), % 3.0 1.9 +1.2 pp Stake of nego deals (volume), % 9.4 3.1 +6.3 pp Part of pension assets, % on gross 7.5 13.6 -6.1 pp Part of physical entities, % on gross 38.4 23.2 +15.2 pp Number of exchange's members, 41 38 +7.9% who made deals Market concentration, %* 43.5 47.2 -3.7 pp ------------------------------------------------------------------------ * it is specified percentage out of the entire shares turnover, which is numbered by most traded securities (their number is 5% out of the total number of share denominations, included in traded lists of KASE) If to characterize the exchange's market of shares as a whole, April on it had passed very neutrally. May be the most significant events of the month were long ago planned for April 12 delisting of common shares of KAZZINC JSC and deal dated April 16 of re-selling of 75% offered shares of NEFTEBANK JSC at the price KZT7,622.50 per paper with average level of marker prices - KZT4,600 - KZT4,700 per share. This deal seems for IRBIS very strange, especially while consideration of extracts form register system of shareholders as of April 12 and April 17, which obtains KASE. So it is impossible to comment it yet. In the context of the current review it is important that the given deal, made between physical entities, had strongly influenced on the stake of participation of this category of investors on the shares' market of KASE (see the first table). Exactly due to this operation in April was accepted such significant growth of stake of "physical entities" on the market. The decrease of stake of "pensions" was also caused by effect of the local factor - selling in March exactly by this category of investors of the part of state stake of shares of Kazakhtelecom JSC. In the rest the market of April was very calm. Traders were playing the idea of underestimation of preferred shares and had worked the "second echelon" trying to squeeze out from the less liquid instruments the maximal price difference. The rate of shares-favorites as a whole remained stable. It did not manage to shake the market of these stake instruments. By results of trades the growth of average weighted day prices was shown by 48% of shares, involved into deals, decrease - of 38%, rate remind unchanged - of 8%, prices of 6% papers (EXBNp, ZNGRp and aZERD) were nothing to compare with. Corresponding indicators of March - 52%, 37%, 4% and 7%. Positive change of shares' prices was observed in the range from 0.34% (KKGBp) to 157.69% (KZIS), negative - from 0.10% (PDES) to 87.62% (UTMKp). KASE_Shares index during the whole month was working the corridor, limited by 2,500 and 2,600. Its dynamics is reflected in the following tables. Changes of KASE_Shares for different periods to the moment of trades' closing on April 30 2007 (basis actual/365) ----------------------------------------------------- Change: ------------- Period % % APR --------------------------------------- ------ ------ For previous 30 days -3.5 -42.1 Since the beginning of the current year +5.7 +17.4 (since January 1, 07) For the last 365 days (year) +23.9 +23.9 For year 2006 +274.1 +274.1 Since the beginning of year 2005 +295.3 +222.7 ----------------------------------------------------- Main indicators of exchange market of purchase and sales of shares in April of year 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------- Market ca- Volume of Volume of Number of pitalization, Index deals, deals, deals Data m. USD KASE_Shares th. USD m. KZT ------------ ------------- ----------- --------- --------- --------- March 30, 07 64,263.8 2,646.91 57,837.4 7,162.6 94 April 2, 07 64,254.4 2,561.77 16,891.4 2,083.4 57 April 3, 07 63,856.7 2,547.57 12,643.0 1,562.0 63 April 4, 07 63,439.5 2,590.90 6,219.2 768.7 59 April 5, 07 63,893.7 2,562.55 4,266.0 526.3 58 April 6, 07 63,522.5 2,542.59 12,755.3 1,574.8 57 April 9, 07 63,644.0 2,504.53 27,233.5 3,350.5 73 April 10, 07 63,874.3 2,540.71 1,503.5 184.7 41 April 11, 07 64,923.0 2,577.75 5,710.6 699.1 60 April 12, 07 63,470.9 2,544.90 18,592.4 2,269.9 75 April 13, 07 64,421.6 2,576.41 8,490.5 1,034.1 52 April 16, 07 63,955.6 2,559.06 79,685.1 9,705.6 52 April 17, 07 64,327.7 2,586.07 8,126.3 991.6 68 April 18, 07 64,315.4 2,589.67 9,935.1 1,214.6 78 April 19, 07 64,633.3 2,584.48 13,863.2 1,689.7 98 April 20, 07 64,952.2 2,603.70 12,604.4 1,526.0 79 April 23, 07 65,110.6 2,557.92 1,968.3 238.0 68 April 24, 07 64,997.6 2,537.17 8,278.7 1,002.1 47 April 25, 07 64,580.5 2,566.38 15,563.8 1,881.8 67 April 26, 07 64,547.2 2,539.12 47,306.3 5,708.9 103 April 27, 07 65,890.3 2,584.52 25,198.9 3,024.4 115 April 30, 07 65,464.5 2,555.26 11,700.1 1,405.2 107 ------------ ------------- ----------- --------- --------- --------- Trend +1,200.7 -91.65 % +1.9 -3.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------- Changes in list of shares, traded on KASE, in April 2007 --------------------------------------------------- Bonds: Issuers: Category of ------------ Instruments ------------ admission number trend number trend number trend ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 48 0 48 0 32 0 B 46 -1 46 -1 37 -1 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 94 -1 94 -1 68 -1 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- N 4 0 4 0 4 0 A+B+N 98 -1 98 -1 71 -1 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- C (STF RFCA) 15 +5 15 +5 9 +2 A+B+C+N 98 -1 113 +4 71 -1 --------------------------------------------------- Notes: "A", "B" - categories of the official list of KASE; "C" - the category of the official list of the special trading floor of the regional financial center of Almaty (STF RFCA); "А+В" - the official list of KASE; "А+В+N" - the main trading floor of KASE; "A+B+C+N" - totally on KASE, including STF RFCA; in connection with launching STF RFCA, within a security (share) of one denomination two exchange instruments can go with, which are different with the trading code, conditions of trades performance and of payment completion. Results of trades in shares on KASE in April 2007 in purchase and sales sector (including nego deals) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Price, tenge per share: ------------------------------------------------------------ on last deal for last 365 days: Volume Num- ----------------- -------------------- of deals, of Shares trend th. de- code min. max. price % min. max. USD als ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- ALKZ 2,050.00 2,500.00 2,500.00 1,956.80 2,600.00 118.2 5 AMGZ 44,500.00 50,000.00 46,000.00 -16.7 44,500.00 110,000.00 51.0 8 AMGZp 20,000.00 20,000.00 20,000.00 20,000.00 75,000.00 13.8 1 ASBN 66,700.00 66,700.00 66,700.00 +1.8 11,100.00 69,000.00 8.1 1 ASBNp1 10,610.00 12,850.00 12,600.00 -0.8 10,000.00 16,000.00 4,881.5 11 ASFI 8,100.00 8,100.00 8,100.00 0 7,500.00 8,101.00 0.5 1 ASFIp 4,309.55 4,309.55 4,309.55 +7.7 4,001.00 4,309.55 353.8 1 ATFB 11,000.00 11,750.00 11,550.00 +3.5 5,950.00 13,225.00 3,022.0 58 ATFBp 3,300.00 4,140.00 4,000.00 +20.1 2,800.00 4,200.00 1,048.8 8 ATFBp8 1,575.01 3,300.00 3,180.00 +98.8 1,500.00 4,150.00 73,452.3 212 aZERD 3.95 3.95 3.95 3.95 3.95 23.6 1 BTAS 133,000.00 154,100.00 134,000.00 -10.1 90,000.00 157,500.00 20,459.8 77 CCBN 1,801.00 1,955.00 1,920.00 +0.6 510.02 2,012.50 11,762.3 140 CSBN 5,000.00 7,191.84 7,191.84 +49.8 3,100.00 7,217.00 2,713.1 28 CSBNp 1,000.00 1,538.46 1,538.46 +53.8 600.00 3,505.00 190.4 9 DNBN 1,449.00 3,041.00 3,041.00 +117.2 1,400.00 6,037.50 1,560.7 17 EXBN 2,270.00 3,700.00 3,335.00 +46.9 2,000.00 3,700.00 1,044.9 72 EXBNp 1,100.00 1,150.00 1,150.00 1,100.00 1,207.50 927.3 2 GLOT 5,600.00 5,600.00 5,600.00 0 4,000.00 7,500.00 5.7 1 HSBK 640.00 720.00 680.00 -4.2 260.00 781.00 1,331.7 51 HSBKp1 310.50 345.00 340.00 +25.9 173.00 345.00 171.8 8 KIBN 230.00 230.00 230.00 +12.2 150.00 1,150.00 17.1 4 KKGB 1,220.00 1,430.00 1,250.00 -3.1 250.00 1,550.00 11,876.4 114 KKGBp 270.00 325.00 280.00 +1.8 100.00 600.00 27,201.8 102 KZCR 28,100.00 31,250.00 28,100.00 1.00 31,250.00 197.7 2 KZIS 33,000.00 75,000.00 67,000.00 26,000.01 75,000.00 355.3 14 KZTC 17,000.00 18,656.60 17,000.00 -1.4 10,000.00 20,000.00 260.3 2 KZTCp 1,044.00 1,200.00 1,044.00 -9.2 1,044.00 9,000.00 28.4 2 KZTK 49,000.00 52,000.00 50,000.00 -3.8 23,502.00 55,000.00 17,925.5 74 KZTKp 23,000.00 27,100.00 23,950.00 -5.0 8,950.00 27,100.00 14,290.6 100 KZZN 5,200.00 6,100.00 5,750.00 -12.9 4,510.00 17,500.00 567.6 21 MMGZp 10,000.00 10,000.00 10,000.00 +42.9 7,000.00 19,500.00 160.3 2 NFBN 4,600.00 7,622.50 4,644.58 +16.1 1,321.00 7,622.50 77,150.5 11 NRBN 45,002.00 54,050.00 45,501.00 41,500.00 62,250.00 635.3 13 NRBNp6 25,300.00 25,300.00 25,300.00 -9.0 22,000.00 40,000.00 31.4 2 ORDB 4,000.00 4,000.00 4,000.00 0 2,841.85 4,400.00 106.3 2 ORNK 10.06 10.06 10.06 0 1.00 10.06 0.8 1 PDES 1,000.00 1,003.69 1,000.00 -0.1 655.00 9,500.00 2,476.3 2 RAHT 3,500.00 3,500.00 3,500.00 600.00 3,500.00 62.4 1 RDGZ 14,901.00 16,100.00 15,050.00 -1.6 11,260.00 18,399.99 28,759.4 146 TEBN 5,510.00 7,000.00 7,000.00 +26.1 1,470.00 7,000.00 312.4 17 TEBNp 1,274.00 2,400.00 2,400.00 +92.0 1,073.75 2,400.00 2,514.5 30 TSBN 1,911.00 2,990.00 2,990.00 0 1,510.00 4,550.00 1,410.2 48 UTMKp 1,500.00 15,000.00 1,500.00 -90.0 100.00 29,000.00 890.9 3 ZERD 3.96 4.10 4.10 +3.8 1.10 4.50 5,350.2 6 ZNGRp 450.00 450.00 450.00 450.00 450.00 36.9 1 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ---- 46 315,759.9 1432 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Notes to the table: The table reflects only those shares, with which deals were made by method of open trades. Trends (change, %) are given relative to the last deal of the previous month (March 1-31, 2007). If there were no deals last month, trend is not calculated. Top-10 of the most liquid listing shares of KASE in April 2007, including STF RFCA ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Base of liquidity indicator calculation (Kl): ------------------------------------------- Position Liquidity Volume num- Number Number Position in April Share indicator of deals ber of KASE of result in March, 2007 symbol (Kl) KZT, mln of deals members days 2007 -------- ------ --------- ----------- --------- --------- ----------- --------- 1 ATFBp8 2.8 8,889.6 212 26 18 11 2 RDGZ 2.3 3,515.0 146 29 21 5 3 KKGB 2.044 1,456.6 114 30 18 4 4 CCBN 2.036 1,428.5 140 24 21 2 5 KKGBp 1.8 3,324.6 102 22 18 1 6 KZTKp 1.7 1,757.0 100 20 21 7 7 KZTK 1.6 2,205.8 74 22 19 3 8 BTAS 1.4 2,496.5 77 17 14 6 9 HSBK 1.34 161.7 51 20 18 8 10 ATFB 1.30 370.0 58 16 20 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Notes to the table: for calculation of Kl are used only data on deals, which were made in the sector of KASE's secondary market by one of methods of open trades. Description of methods of calculation of the given indicator is available in corresponding chapter of the document, published at http://www.kase.kz/mix/rsp.pdf in Russian language and at http://www.kase.kz/eng/mix/rsp.pdf in English language. 10-top most capitalized companies of KASE whose shares are in official securities list of the exchange (to the moment of trades closing by specified dates) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ As of April 30, 07: as of March 30, 07: Change: ------------------- ------------------- -------------- Company code po- capi- stake po- capi- stake capi- on KASE (the same si- taliza- of the si- taliza- of the taliza- stake, code is used for ti- tion, compa- ti- tion, compa- tion, % common share) on m USD ny, % on m USD ny, % m USD points ----------------- --- -------- ------ --- -------- ------ ------- ------ GB_KZMS 1 13,740.1 21.0 1 13,325.1 20.4 +415.0 +0.6 RDGZ 2 8,799.5 13.4 2 8,675.6 13.3 +124.0 +0.2 KKGB 3 6,275.8 9.6 4 6,136.8 9.4 +139.1 +0.2 BTAS 4 5,983.8 9.1 3 6,452.6 9.9 -468.9 -0.7 HSBK 5 5,858.3 8.9 5 5,820.1 8.9 +38.2 +0.1 KZTK 6 4,627.8 7.1 6 4,668.5 7.1 -40.7 -0.1 ASBN 7 4,165.2 6.4 8 3,234.3 4.9 +930.9 +1.4 AMGZ 8 3,426.6 5.2 7 3,987.8 6.1 -561.1 -0.9 ATFB 9 2,201.0 3.4 9 1,930.0 2.9 +271.1 +0.4 CCBN 10 1,683.7 2.6 11 1,613.8 2.5 +69.9 +0.1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Not to the table: Stake of the company, % - indicator, calculated by ratio of market capitalization of the company to total capitalization of exchange market of shares of KASE's official list of securities and expressed in percentage. This indicator at the session closing as of April 30, 2006 was $65,464.5 m. There were 94 shares of 68 issuers in official securities list of KASE. [2007-05-14]