/IRBIS, Natalya Khoroshevskaya, Andrey Tsalyuk, April 16, 07/ - In March
2007 on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) 309 deals were made with corporate
bonds in all sectors of the market, including deals, performed on the special
trading floor of the Regional financial center of Almay (STF RFCA) for a total
of KZT66,087.5 m. or USD533.7 m. at the current rate effective on deals
concluding dates. The stated amount is 58.8% of monthly turnover of corporate
securities market (in February 2007 - 60.3%) and 2.5% of monthly exchange
turnover (1.4%).
Statistic characteristic of corporate bonds market on KASE in March
and February of 2007 (indicators are given taking into account direct deals)
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Month: Trend
------------------- March 2007
March February compared to
Indicator 2007 2007 Feb 2007
------------------------------------------- --------- --------- -----------
Trades volume, th., USD 533,745.6 323,056.7 +65.2%
Trades volume, m., KZT 66,087.5 40,254.7 +64.2%
including, on offerings, th. USD 2,620.1 0 X
including, on offerings, m. KZT 324.3 0 X
including, on STF RFCA, th. USD 323.1 81.6 +295.9%
including, on STF RFCA, m. KZT 40.0 10.1 +296.0%
Number of deals 309 232 +33.2%
Number of instruments, 76 64 +18.8%
involved in deals
Stake of nego deals (number), % 4.9 3.0 +1.8 pp
Stake of nego deals (volume), % 0.3876 0.0003 +0.3873 pp
Participation of pension assets, % gross 9.5 14.0 -4.5 pp
Participation of physical entities, % gross 25.8 21.5 +4.3 pp
Number of exchange's members, 35 34 +2.9%
who made deals
Market concentration, %* 67.6 49.3 +18.3 pp
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* it is specified the percentage out of total turnover of corporate bonds,
which are numbered by the most traded securities (their quantity is 5%
out of the total quantity of titles of corporate bonds, included in
trading list of KASE)
As it is viewed from the given statistical table, the turnover of exchange
market for debt instruments keeps growing, at that, in March it was marked
the growth of all indicators of that segment. IRBIS analysts explain this
phenomenon with several factors.
Supposedly, the most significant of them is enlargement of KASE lists due
to the fact that some new bonds both existent and of new listing companies
(see the table below) entered lists. This process, to all appearances, has just
started, since market regulators try their best to restrict external borrowings
of banks. Banks have to borrow funds more actively on internal market in the
current situation, which is being observed at present.
As the second reason, IRBIS analysts are inclined to indicate failures of
issuers in the current year, while offering their bonds on KASE. Investors
are selling short hard, and prudential restriction for purchasing securities
of one issuer will intensify the situation. Free money is working on
the secondary market, and it forms there excessive demand, making for raising
liquidity of bonds.
It is viewed in the table, given above, that the concern of physical entities
to the corporate bonds market is growing. In March over one forth of the gross
turnover fell on the share of investors of that group, which was also
conductive to liquidity growth of debt instruments, traded on KASE.
Price background of the exchange market of corporate bonds in February as
well as in January looked rather balanced and was characterized by following
statistics.
In the analyzed month out of 76 bonds denominations, involved in deals at
the secondary market, 43 denominations were traded lower than the nominal
value; 32 were traded with premium. Deals with PRKRb1 were performed by
face value within frameworks of the specialized trades for purchasing these
bonds. KRZHb1 looked the most overpurchased (their weighted average net
price for the month totaled 118.42% of the face value), the most oversold -
ASFIb11 (90.50%). In February deals at the secondary market were carried
out with bonds of 64 denominations, securities of 33 denominations were
traded with discount, 30 - with premium, 1 security - at face value. HSBKb2
looked most overpurchased (119.06%), most oversold - BTASb7 (84.27%).
The weighted average net price of corporate bonds at the secondary market
in March totaled 96.98%, in February - 95.75%. In March on concluded deals
the yield to maturity for a buyer of 36 corporate bonds increased, of 29
decreased. There was nothing to compare with the yield of eleven securities.
In February the corresponding indicators are 30, 27 and 4.
The given data are the evident of the fact that the corporate bonds market
do not look overheated, and the low price is a priority for investors.
Tables, which additionally characterize the exchange market of corporate
bonds in March, are given below.
Change of lists of corporate bonds, traded on KASE, in March 2007
---------------------------------------------------
Bonds: Instruments Issuers:
Category of ------------ ------------ ------------
admission number trend number trend number trend
------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
A 184 +2 184 +2 60 0
B 21 +2 21 +2 20 +2
------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
A+B 205 +4 205 +4 80 +2
------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
C (STF RFCA) 27 +8 27 +8 9 +2
A+B+C 205 +4 232 +12 80 +2
---------------------------------------------------
Notes: "A", "B" - categories of the official list of KASE; "C" - category
of the official list of STF RFCA in connection with launch of STF RFCA for
the security (bond) of one denomination, two exchange instruments,
differing with the code, with conditions of trades holding and
payment making, can go with.
Main indicators of KASE's corporate bond market in March 2007
--------------------------------------------------------------
Market.
value of Index Volume of Volume of
debt, KASE_BY, Index Index deals, deals,
Date USD m. % APR KASE_BP KASE_BC th. USD m. KZT
-------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- ---------
28.02.07 12,781.6 7.87 201.37 128.38 23,757.3 2,950.9
01.03.07 12,763.0 7.84 201.84 128.63 4,451.7 555.6
02.03.07 12,733.8 7.88 201.53 128.39 3,764.9 471.4
05.03.07 12,727.9 7.86 201.81 128.50 137.6 17.3
06.03.07 12,736.8 7.88 201.62 128.35 26,269.6 3,285.0
07.03.07 12,778.5 7.87 201.87 128.49 8,647.2 1,075.4
11.03.07 12,823.0 7.87 201.93 128.42 26,340.6 3,254.4
12.03.07 12,823.2 7.89 201.86 128.35 26,501.5 3,264.2
13.03.07 12,814.4 7.48 204.54 130.12 19,058.6 2,350.7
14.03.07 12,794.7 7.87 202.55 128.62 638.7 79.0
15.03.07 12,769.1 7.88 202.34 128.59 17,690.6 2,194.5
16.03.07 12,777.1 7.87 202.49 128.65 16,714.9 2,072.6
19.03.07 13,076.2 7.49 204.98 130.21 148,411.1 18,354.0
20.03.07 13,156.6 7.90 202.70 128.64 27,534.0 3,406.2
21.03.07 13,144.5 7.89 202.85 128.73 0 0
25.03.07 13,158.1 7.87 203.37 128.97 11,733.9 1,451.7
26.03.07 13,178.9 7.88 203.23 128.87 4,251.5 524.3
27.03.07 13,154.0 7.88 203.28 128.87 19,262.3 2,384.5
28.03.07 13,138.0 7.89 203.29 128.82 56,990.7 7,064.6
29.03.07 13,188.8 7.92 202.95 128.59 25,319.6 3,133.3
30.03.07 13,178.7 7.47 206.57 130.89 90,026.5 11,148.9
-------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- ---------
Trend +397.1 -0.4 +5.2 +2.5
,% +3.11 -5.05 +2.58 +1.96
--------------------------------------------------------------
Summary data on the results of bond trades on KASE in March 2007
(purchase and sale, including offerings, without consideration of nego deals)
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Yield to maturity for a buyer, % APR:
--------------------------------------
on for last
Code the last deal: 365 days Volume
of bond -------------- ----------- of deals, Number
on KASE min. max. yield trend, % min. max. th. USD of deals
------- ----- ----- ----- -------- ----- ----- --------- --------
ALLZb1 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 323.6 1
aMAG_b1 12.00 12.50 12.00 +0.31 11.69 12.50 323.1 2
ASAVb1 9.80 9.80 9.80 9.80 9.80 36.3 1
ASBNb1 11.50 11.50 11.50 -0.50 9.00 12.00 15.5 2
ASBNb3 8.98 10.15 8.98 -2.82 7.50 11.80 9,183.4 3
ASBNb6 9.30 9.30 9.30 8.49 9.53 522.0 1
ASBNb7 8.50 8.98 8.98 8.50 8.98 29,589.7 11
ASBNb8 9.51 9.51 9.51 -0.19 9.51 9.70 13,113.1 4
ASFIb10 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 16.8 1
ASFIb11 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 1,796.2 1
ASFIb5 8.83 11.22 9.60 +0.09 8.73 11.50 3,189.2 9
ASFIb7 10.39 10.39 10.39 +0.69 8.50 11.00 481.2 4
ASFIb8 8.10 8.10 8.10 8.00 8.50 170.6 1
ASNDb1 11.00 11.00 11.00 8.90 11.00 1,793.5 1
ATFBb3 6.10 8.50 8.50 6.10 8.50 6,656.4 3
ATFBb5 8.50 9.15 9.15 +0.40 7.55 9.28 2,029.8 7
ATFBb6 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 60,685.1 14
BTAIb10 8.00 8.50 8.50 +0.50 6.99 8.50 12,499.1 4
BTAIb11 7.56 7.56 7.56 7.56 8.50 379.1 1
BTAIb4 8.78 8.78 8.78 +0.47 8.20 10.00 175.2 2
BTAIb7 9.97 9.97 9.97 +0.47 9.50 10.00 3,211.4 12
BTASb1 10.99 11.00 11.00 +0.25 6.50 11.50 271.2 2
BTASb4 7.00 10.80 7.70 -0.10 7.00 11.10 140.3 7
BTASb7 7.00 7.00 7.00 -1.60 6.85 8.60 157,055.3 17
BTLZb1 8.20 8.20 8.20 8.20 8.20 17.0 1
BTTRb1 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 9.00 4,900.9 1
CCBNb10 9.00 9.00 9.00 7.89 9.00 1,458.6 2
CCBNb14 8.50 8.50 8.50 0 8.50 8.50 13,908.6 4
CSBNb6 9.75 10.25 10.25 +1.25 8.50 10.25 46.1 4
DNTLb1 12.30 12.30 12.30 12.00 12.30 17.4 2
EUBNb3 8.20 8.20 8.20 0 8.00 9.25 4,150.8 1
EXBNb1 9.30 9.70 9.30 0 9.30 9.70 21,739.4 3
GLOTb1 10.00 10.00 10.00 9.00 10.00 807.3 1
HSBKb 12.50 12.50 12.50 8.30 12.50 8.9 1
HSBKb3 8.80 8.80 8.80 7.16 8.80 253.5 2
HSBKb8 7.70 7.70 7.70 0 6.60 9.09 469.4 1
ISKEb1 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 1,697.8 3
KASTb2 10.70 10.70 10.70 8.40 10.70 36.3 1
KATRb1 11.50 12.00 11.50 0 10.00 13.00 1,091.1 15
KAZIb1 10.00 11.00 11.00 -0.13 10.00 11.13 926.7 3
KAZIb2 10.10 10.29 10.29 -0.01 10.10 10.30 251.2 3
KKAGb3 10.30 10.30 10.30 9.20 10.30 4,156.5 4
KKGBb2 6.50 8.00 6.50 5.00 9.92 1,490.2 5
KKGBb4 8.00 9.00 8.00 +1.50 6.00 9.00 6,322.5 7
KKGBe3 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 10.4 1
KONDb1 7.76 10.20 7.76 -2.27 7.76 10.20 4,841.2 3
KRZHb1 8.11 8.11 8.11 -0.89 7.88 12.00 403.0 1
KZALb1 10.40 10.40 10.40 -0.90 9.32 11.30 80.8 1
KZASb2 8.66 8.70 8.70 +0.03 8.00 8.90 113.3 3
KZIKb5 8.00 8.00 8.00 7.00 8.00 3,403.6 1
KZIKb7 7.00 7.00 7.00 -0.20 5.00 7.35 11,145.9 1
KZIKb8 7.70 7.70 7.70 0 7.70 7.70 5,291.6 4
KZIKb9 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 798.7 1
KZNHb2 9.85 9.85 9.85 -1.15 9.50 13.50 820.1 1
MAG_b1 11.68 11.68 11.68 11.68 11.68 59.2 1
MREKb3 8.90 9.50 8.90 -0.50 8.90 9.50 2,158.7 2
NFBNb1 10.65 10.65 10.65 0 10.00 11.77 1,466.4 2
NRBNb2 9.80 9.80 9.80 +0.19 7.99 9.80 131.0 3
NRBNb4 8.20 8.50 8.20 7.80 8.50 7,506.6 4
NRBNb5 8.55 8.70 8.66 +0.16 8.30 9.10 5,876.1 4
ORDBb2 11.80 13.50 11.80 -0.70 10.00 13.50 109,709.2 41
ORDKB1 12.00 12.00 12.00 -1.00 12.00 13.00 965.5 1
ORNKb1 12.00 12.00 12.00 0 10.00 12.00 904.2 2
PRKRb1 7.99 7.99 7.99 +0.03 7.96 8.08 84.7 1
RGBRb3 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.00 8.50 130.2 2
ROSAb1 9.00 13.00 9.00 8.00 14.00 61.0 4
TEBNb5 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 2,104.7 1
TSBNb2 11.00 11.00 11.00 9.50 11.00 13.5 1
TSBNb4 8.50 9.30 8.50 -0.70 8.50 10.20 1,557.8 3
TSNAb1 10.70 10.70 10.70 10.70 11.20 1,025.8 1
TSSMb1 9.07 9.30 9.30 8.80 9.64 199.5 4
TXBNb2 9.27 9.80 9.80 +0.30 8.70 11.00 727.9 10
UKPFb1 11.50 13.42 13.42 +1.22 9.99 13.50 59.0 5
------- ----- ----- ----- -------- ----- ----- --------- --------
73 529,056.9 284
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Comments: Securities were sorted in alphabetical order according to codes of
bonds. Trends are given in percentage points (1pp = 100 basis points) relative
to the last deal of previous month - December 2006. In the code of bond by
the number is noted the number of bonds' issue. In case of number absence
(old quotation) is meant the first emission. The full list of codes of issuers
is available at
http://www.kase.kz/instruments/nzb_code.htm.
[2007-04-16]