ANALYSIS: As of April 1 of 2007 the total state debt of Kazakhstan, issued as GS along with servicing totaled KZT1,446.6 bn. or $11,665.2 m.

/IRBIS, Zaure Yessimova, Andrey Tsalyuk, April 9, 07/ - As of March 1 of 2007 the total state debt of Kazakhstan, issued as government securities (GS), including municipal bonds, along with the servicing (amount of coupon payments) equaled in current prices to KZT1,444.6 bn., or $11,665.2 m. at the rate of KZT123.84 per a dollar. IRBIS specialists made such a conclusion after analyzing its databases. While making the analysis, the amounts of future payments on MEIKAM were calculated taking into consideration consumer price index, which was registered for the period from January 2007 to March 2007, on MEUJKAM - from April 2006 to March 2007. Within March 1-31 of 2007 the total debt (taking into account changes of the rate of the National Bank) in tenge equivalent increased by KZT13.2 bn. (+0.9%), in dollar equivalent increased by 94.7 m. (+0.8%). Similar indicators of debt change in February of 2007 were minus KZT17.9 bn. (-1.2%) or plus $90.1 m. (+0.8%). Following table contains detailed information. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt ---------------------------- Change as of for the *Currency of March 31, 07 as of period ------------- ------------------ Feb 28, 0 -------------- Issuer issue service bn. KZT stake, % bn. KZT m. KZT % ------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- --------- --------- ---- National Bank KZT KZT 847.589 58.7 838.140 +9,449.5 +1.1 ------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- --------- --------- ---- Ministry of Finance 592.771 41.0 588.993 +3,777.4 +0.6 incl. face value 441.327 30.5 436.782 +4,545.5 +1.0 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 397.983 27.5 393.483 +4,500.0 +1.1 also, euronotes USD USD 43.344 3.0 43.299 +45.5 +0.1 incl. servicing 151.443 10.5 152.212 -768.1 -0.5 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 149.032 10.3 149.803 -770.6 -0.5 also, euronotes USD USD 2.411 0.2 2.408 +2.5 +0.1 ------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- --------- --------- ---- Municipals USD KZT 4.260 0.3 4.256 +4.5 +0.1 incl. face value USD KZT 3.860 0.3 3.856 +4.1 +0.1 incl. servicing USD KZT 0.400 0.0 0.400 +0.4 +0.1 ------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- --------- --------- ---- incl. Astana akimat USD KZT 1.131 0.1 1.129 +1.2 +0.1 also, face value USD KZT 1.084 0.1 1.083 +1.1 +0.1 also, servicing USD KZT 0.046 0.003 0.046 +0.0 +0.1 ------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- --------- --------- ---- incl. Atyrau USD KZT region akimat 3.130 0.2 3.126 +3.3 +0.1 also, face value USD KZT 2.775 0.2 2.772 +2.9 +0.1 also, servicing USD KZT 0.354 0.02 0.354 +0.4 +0.1 ------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- --------- --------- ---- TOTAL 1,444.620 100.0 1431.389 +13,231.4 +0.9 incl. face value 1,292.777 89.5 1278.777 +13,999.1 +1.1 incl. servicing 151.844 10.5 152.612 -767.7 -0.5 ------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- --------- --------- ---- OR ------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- --------- --------- ---- incl. internal debt KZT KZT 1,398.865 96.8 1385.682 +13,183.4 +1.0 also, face value KZT KZT 1,249.433 86.5 1235.479 +13,953.6 +1.1 also, servicing KZT KZT 149.433 10.3 150.203 -770.2 -0.5 ------------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- --------- --------- ---- incl. external debt USD USD 45.755 3.2 45.707 +48.0 +0.1 also, face value USD USD 43.344 3.0 43.299 +45.5 +0.1 also, servicing USD USD 2.411 0.2 2.408 +2.5 +0.1 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- *USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. Equivalents as of March 31, 07 were calculated at the rate of KZT123.84 per a dollar, as of February 28, 07 - at KZT123.71. Therefore, the data shown in the table reflect the dynamics turned out with exchange rate fluctuations besides all other factors. Similar figures in U.S. dollars are given in the table as follows. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Amount and structure of debt ---------------------------- Change as of for the *Currency of March 31, 07 as of period ------------- ----------------- Feb 28, 07 --------------- Issuer issue service m. USD stake, % m. USD th. USD % ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ---- National Bank KZT KZT 6,844.2 58.7 6,775.0 +69,192.4 +1.0 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ---- Ministry of Finance 4,786.6 41.0 4,761.1 +25,504.6 +0.5 incl. face value 3,563.7 30.5 3,530.7 +32,998.3 +0.9 also, domestic GS KZT. USD KZT 3,213.7 27.5 3,180.7 +32,998.3 +1.0 also, euronotes USD USD 350.0 3.0 350.0 0 0 incl. servicing 1,222.9 10.5 1,230.4 -7,493.7 -0.6 also, domestic GS KZT. 1,210.9 USD KZT 1,203.4 10.3 -7,493.7 -0.6 also, euronotes USD USD 19.5 0.2 19.5 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ---- Municipals USD KZT 34.40 0.3 34.40 0 0 incl. face value USD KZT 31.2 0.3 31.2 0 0 incl. servicing USD KZT 3.2 0.0 3.2 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ---- incl. Astana akimat USD KZT 9.1 0.1 9.1 0 0 also, face value USD KZT 8.8 0.1 8.8 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 0.373 0.003 0.373 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ---- incl. Atyrau USD KZT region akimat 25.3 0.2 25.3 0 0 also, face value USD KZT 22.4 0.2 22.4 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 2.9 0.02 2.9 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ---- TOTAL 11,665.2 100.0 11,570.5 +94,697.0 +0.8 incl. face value 10,439.1 89.5 10,336.9 +102,190.7 +1.0 incl. servicing 1,226.1 10.5 1,233.6 -7,493.7 -0.6 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ---- OR ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ---- incl. internal debt KZT KZT 11,295.7 96.8 11,201.1 +94,697.0 +0.8 also, face value KZT KZT 10,089.1 86.5 9,986.9 +102,190.7 +1.0 also, servicing KZT KZT 1,206.7 10.3 1,214.2 -7,493.7 -0.6 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ---- incl. external debt USD USD 369.5 3.2 369.5 0 0 also, face value USD USD 350.0 3.0 350.0 0 0 also, servicing USD USD 19.5 0.2 19.5 0 0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ *USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. According to the data of IRBIS, the issue volume of the National Bank's GS in March 2007 by amounts of offering was KZT837,485.7 m. (in February 2006 - KZT835,122.6 m.). At that, the issuer paid off his liabilities for a total sum of KZT838,139.9 (KZT841,646.1 m.). March net-borrowing balance of the National Bank in GS market was minus KZT654.2 m. Corresponding index in February was minus KZT6,523.5 m. ("minus" sign in balance indicator means that the mentioned sum was withdrawn from issuer's budget and remained in investors' possession, "plus" sign - issuer borrowed more than redeemed). In March the Ministry of finance borrowed by offering of MEKAM KZT4,531.0 m. (in February - KZT277.8 m.) and paid coupons on its bonds for a total of KZT2,226.9 m. (in February - KZT4,743.2 m.). March net-borrowing balance of the Ministry of finance is estimated by IRBIS at plus KZT2,304.1 m. (in February - plus KZT4,465.4 m.). Total March net-borrowing balance of all Kazakhstan GS issuers was estimated by IRBIS at plus KZT1,650.0 m. Similar indicator of February - minus KZT10,989.0 m. Relative to February Gs primary market looked even greater neutral in terms of impact upon money aggregates. To all appearances, issuers closed March with the minimal sterilizing effect despite the fact that the National Bank started to issue longer bonds. IRBIS specialists are inclined to explain the phenomenon with extremely favorable (for the National Bank) situation, made up in the analyzed month at the external USD market. The market in terms of prices was regulated independently, and there was no need for any serious tenge or dollar interventions by the head bank of the republic. The dropping rate of official inflation made for that, as well. IRBIS agency draws the attention of its subscribers and mass media to the fact that figures presented above are not official data since it was obtained through analyzing information on primary GS market using databases of the agency. As regards domestic bonds, agency's databases have been checked according to the data presented to IRBIS by Central securities depository JSC (Almaty). [2007-04-09]