ANALYSIS: In February 2007 turnover of purchase-sale sector of corporate bonds grew by one third

12.03.07 21:02
/IRBIS, Natalya Khoroshevskaya, Andrey Tsalyuk, March 12, 07/ - In February 2007 on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) 232 deals were made with corporate bonds in all sectors of the market, including deals, performed on the special trading floor of the Regional financial center of Almay (STF RFCA) for a total of KZT40,254.7 m. or USD323.1 m. at the current rate effective on deals concluding dates. The stated amount is 60.3% of monthly turnover of corporate securities market (in January 2007 - 53.9%) and 1.4% of monthly exchange turnover (1.0%). Statistic characteristic of corporate bonds market on KASE in February and January of 2007 (indicators are given taking into account direct deals) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Month: -------------------- Trend February January Feb 2007 Indicator 2007 2007 compared to Jan 2007 ------------------------------------------- --------- --------- ----------- Trades volume, th., USD 323,056.7 241,858.1 +33.6% Trades volume, m., KZT 40,254.7 30,408.0 +32.4% including, on offerings, th. USD 0 0 X including, on offerings, m. KZT 0 0 X including, on STF RFCA, th. USD 81.6 Х X including, on STF RFCA, m. KZT 10.1 Х X Number of deals 232 246 -5.7% Number of instruments, 64 70 -8.6% involved in deals Stake of nego deals (number), % 3.0 5.3 -2.3,pp Stake of nego deals (volume), % 0.0003 12.2 -12.2,pp Participation of pension assets, % gross 14.0 14.1 -0.1,pp Participation of physical entities, % gross 21.5 9.6 +11.9,pp Number of exchange's members, 34 39 -12.8% who made deals Market concentration, %* 49.3 53.2 -3.9,pp ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ *it is specified the percentage out of total turnover of corporate bonds, which are numbered by the most traded securities (their quantity is 5% out of the total quantity of titles of corporate bonds, included in trading list of KASE) As it is viewed in the above-given statistics table, debt instruments turnover on exchange market in February of the current year grew by one third against the background of reduction of an amount of deals and number of instruments, involved in them, as well. As a result, average volume of deals within a month grew by 41.6% and greatly exceeded the similar indicator for analyzed deals with shares. Increase of the stake of partaking on the market of physical entities seems remarkable in this context. Another particularity to note here in February on corporate bonds market was the great reduction of the stake of nego deals. During the month totally 7 nego deals for a total of $891.65 were made in this segment of the market. Opening of trades on STF RFCA on February 27 with fourteen debt instruments of six issuers brought to exchange turnover only one deal for today (bonds KZ2C0Y03C130 of MAG JSC, the code of the instrument - aMAG_b1) for a total of $81,620.51. Actually, trades opening on STF RFCA were just a formality, as it could be viewed afterward. De-facto the market has not meet the need to perform deals on ATF RFCA with securities yet, which are traded rather actively on the main floor of KASE. To all appearances, the new trading floor will earn much, when other instruments, issuers and investors are brought there. However, when it will happen is difficult to say. Price background of the exchange market of corporate bonds in February as well as in January looked rather balanced and was characterized by following statistics. In the analyzed month out of 64 bonds denominations, involved in deals at the secondary market, 33 denominations were traded lower than the nominal value; 30 were traded with premium. Deals with PRKRb1 were performed by face value within frameworks of the specialized trades for purchasing these bonds. HSBKb2 looked the most overpurchased (their weighted average net price for the month totaled 119.06% of the face value), the most oversold - BTASb7 (84.27%). In January deals at the secondary market were carried out with bonds of 70 denominations, securities of 38 denominations were traded with discount, 32 - with premium. BTASb4 looked most overpurchased (116.81%), most oversold - NRBNb5 (90.17%). The weighted average net price of corporate bonds at the secondary market in February totaled 95.75%, in January - 101.24%. In February on concluded deals the yield to maturity for a buyer of 30 corporate bonds increased, of 27 decreased. There was nothing to compare with the yield of four new securities, on HSBKb2 KASE does not calculate profitability. In January the corresponding indicators are 41,25 and 4. Dynamics of indexes of KASE_B* series, provided in the following table of main indicators of the market, was notable for the fact that yield index in February kept working through the horizontal channel within the range of 7.85% and 7.90% APR. Tables, which additionally characterize the exchange market of corporate bonds in February, are given below. Change of lists of corporate bonds, traded on KASE, in February 2007 --------------------------------------------------------- Bonds: Issuers: Category of ------------- Instruments ------------- admission number trend number trend number trend ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 182 +1 182 +1 60 -1 B 19 0 19 0 18 0 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 201 +1 201 +1 78 -1 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- C (STF RFCA) 19 Х 19 Х 7 Х A+B+C 201 +1 220 +19 78 -1 --------------------------------------------------------- Notes: "A", "B" - categories of the official list of KASE; "C" - category of the official list of STF RFCA in connection with launch of STF RFCA for the security (bond) of one denomination, two exchange instruments, differing with the code, with conditions of trades holding and payment making, can go with. Main indicators of KASE's corporate bond market in February 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------- Market. value of Index Volume of Volume of debt, KASE_BY, Index Index deals, deals, Date USD m. % APR KASE_BP KASE_BC th. USD m. KZT -------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- 31.01.07 12,892.7 7.41 201.65 129.61 19,389.0 2,462.4 01.02.07 12,834.4 7.87 199.94 128.13 4,728.5 596.6 02.02.07 12,842.3 7.86 200.04 128.17 1,705.9 214.9 05.02.07 12,902.6 7.85 200.02 128.08 59,672.9 7,491.3 06.02.07 12,907.8 7.85 200.07 128.10 4,771.7 598.6 07.02.07 12,907.5 7.86 200.06 128.05 17,909.7 2,248.6 08.02.07 12,904.6 7.85 200.21 128.10 297.0 37.3 09.02.07 12,847.6 7.88 199.91 127.89 8,565.3 1,070.6 12.02.07 12,883.8 7.85 200.37 128.15 7,249.7 903.2 13.02.07 12,899.8 7.88 200.12 127.94 35,822.6 4,448.5 14.02.07 12,965.3 7.48 202.77 129.67 30,469.9 3,776.7 15.02.07 12,959.3 7.87 200.61 128.22 4,667.0 579.0 16.02.07 12,678.0 8.01 199.81 127.62 81,343.8 10,112.7 19.02.07 12,686.6 7.85 201.08 128.44 9,333.4 1,161.5 20.02.07 12,757.8 7.88 200.86 128.24 7,823.7 974.9 21.02.07 12,754.8 7.88 200.84 128.18 1,064.8 132.7 22.02.07 12,746.6 7.89 200.87 128.14 6,042.9 752.5 23.02.07 12,801.6 7.89 200.93 128.21 6,327.0 781.6 26.02.07 12,799.0 7.89 201.07 128.22 5,879.7 726.8 27.02.07 12,806.3 8.02 200.37 127.76 5,624.1 695.8 28.02.07 12,781.6 7.87 201.37 128.38 23,757.3 2,950.9 -------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- Trend -43.4 +0.2 +0.5 -0.4 % -0.34 +2.49 +0.26 -0.28 -------------------------------------------------------------------- Summary data on the results of bond trades on KASE in February 2007 (purchase and sale, including offerings, without consideration of nego deals) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yield to maturity for purchaser, % APR: ------------------------------------------- At a last deal: For last Code of 365 days: Volume of bond --------------- ------------ deals, Number on KASE min. max. yield Trend, % min. max. th. USD Of deals ------- ----- ----- ----- -------- ----- ----- --------- -------- aMAG_b1 11.69 11.69 11.69 11.69 11.69 81.6 1 ASBNb1 10.00 12.00 12.00 9.00 12.00 3,861.5 2 ASBNb3 9.80 11.80 11.80 +2.00 7.50 11.80 50.1 2 ASBNb4 10.37 10.37 10.37 8.00 11.50 2.5 1 ASBNb8 9.61 9.70 9.70 9.61 9.70 61,719.1 6 ASFIb3 8.10 8.10 8.10 -0.50 8.10 8.60 40.4 1 ASFIb4 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.39 11.08 19.5 3 ASFIb5 8.83 11.00 9.51 -1.99 8.73 11.50 707.8 6 ASFIb7 8.50 10.50 9.70 +1.20 8.50 11.00 12,913.7 22 ASFIb9 7.50 9.50 7.50 7.50 10.30 7,646.6 2 ATFBb5 8.50 9.10 8.75 +0.25 7.55 9.28 696.8 5 BTAIb10 8.00 8.00 8.00 6.99 8.00 8,031.1 1 BTAIb3 9.50 9.50 9.50 -0.60 8.00 10.10 16.4 1 BTAIb4 8.30 8.30 8.30 -0.50 8.20 10.00 218.3 1 BTAIb6 10.00 10.00 10.00 9.00 10.09 54.8 1 BTAIb7 9.50 9.50 9.50 -0.50 8.60 10.00 16.3 1 BTAIb8 10.50 10.50 10.50 0 8.20 10.50 24.7 2 BTAIb9 7.50 7.90 7.90 7.50 8.51 18.6 2 BTASb1 10.75 10.99 10.75 -0.09 6.50 11.50 35.3 2 BTASb2 9.75 10.40 10.10 +0.10 7.90 11.20 1,178.3 10 BTASb4 7.80 11.10 7.80 +0.30 7.00 11.10 80.7 6 BTASb5 7.50 8.00 8.00 7.40 8.50 2,720.6 3 BTASb7 7.00 8.60 8.60 +1.10 6.85 8.60 68,463.8 11 CCBNb12 7.00 7.60 7.60 7.00 7.93 1,703.7 2 CCBNb14 8.50 8.50 8.50 0 8.50 8.50 6,376.3 4 CSBNb6 9.00 9.00 9.00 -0.60 8.50 9.60 23.8 3 EUBNb3 8.20 8.20 8.20 0 8.00 8.20 4,107.8 2 EXBNb1 9.30 9.30 9.30 9.30 9.70 8,111.9 4 HSBKb11 7.53 7.53 7.53 7.30 7.85 4,027.1 1 HSBKb2 profitability is not calculated 96.5 4 HSBKb7 8.75 8.75 8.75 7.00 8.75 2.0 1 HSBKb8 7.70 7.70 7.70 6.60 9.09 482.1 2 KATRb1 11.48 11.87 11.50 -0.50 10.00 13.00 2,259.4 13 KAZIb1 11.00 11.13 11.13 +0.13 10.70 11.13 473.9 2 KAZIb2 10.30 10.30 10.30 10.10 10.30 4.0 1 KKAGb1 12.06 12.06 12.06 +0.06 9.50 12.30 165.6 1 KKGBb4 6.50 8.20 6.50 -0.50 6.00 8.20 22,032.7 19 KONDb1 10.03 10.03 10.03 +1.03 9.00 10.03 2,808.3 2 KRZHb1 8.80 9.00 9.00 7.88 12.00 3,522.1 4 KZALb1 11.30 11.30 11.30 9.32 11.30 14.7 1 KZAPb1 3.00 5.00 5.00 3.00 8.50 50.4 2 KZASb2 8.00 8.70 8.67 -0.03 8.00 8.90 212.0 3 KZIKb6 7.20 7.20 7.20 6.40 7.20 0.9 1 KZIKb7 7.20 7.35 7.20 5.00 7.35 3,395.8 3 KZIKb8 7.70 7.70 7.70 7.70 7.70 4,388.4 2 KZNHb2 10.80 11.00 11.00 +0.18 9.50 13.50 928.0 6 KZTCb1 8.68 8.68 8.68 7.50 8.68 245.6 1 MREKb2 9.05 9.10 9.10 +0.05 8.75 9.10 553.3 2 MREKb3 9.40 9.40 9.40 -0.10 9.40 9.50 1,043.2 1 NFBNb1 10.65 10.65 10.65 -0.04 10.00 11.77 444.9 2 NRBNb2 9.50 9.61 9.61 -0.01 7.99 9.62 2,764.5 3 NRBNb3 8.30 8.30 8.30 +0.15 8.10 8.70 41.0 1 NRBNb5 8.50 9.10 8.50 -0.60 8.30 9.10 4,678.8 4 ORDBb2 12.50 13.00 12.50 -0.03 10.00 13.50 7,780.4 2 ORDKB1 13.00 13.00 13.00 +1.00 12.00 13.00 2.1 1 ORNKb1 12.00 12.00 12.00 +1.36 9.98 12.00 6,976.4 3 PRKRb1 7.96 7.96 7.96 7.96 8.08 16,455.5 7 TEBNb10 8.00 8.50 8.00 0 8.00 8.50 29,108.1 7 TEBNb9 9.00 9.00 9.00 8.80 9.05 168.9 1 TSBNb4 9.20 9.50 9.20 -1.00 9.02 10.20 1,601.3 5 TSBNb6 8.00 10.00 8.00 -2.20 8.00 10.20 16,172.9 3 TXBNb2 9.50 9.50 9.50 8.70 11.00 95.1 2 UKPFb1 12.00 13.50 12.20 +0.12 9.99 13.50 279.1 3 VITAb4 10.00 10.44 10.00 8.80 11.80 858.6 2 ------- ----- ----- ----- -------- ----- ----- --------- -------- 64 323,055.8 225 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Comments: Securities were sorted in alphabetical order according to codes of bonds. Trends are given in percentage points (1pp = 100 basis points) relative to the last deal of previous month - December 2006. In the code of bond by the number is noted the number of bonds' issue. In case of number absence (old quotation) is meant the first emission. The full list of codes of issuers is available at http://www.kase.kz/instruments/nzb_code.htm. [2007-03-12]