ANALYSIS: In January 2006 turnover of purchase-sale sector of corporate bonds practically did not change at KASE

13.02.07 21:02
/IRBIS, Natalya Khoroshevskaya, Andrey Tsalyuk, January 13, 07/ - In January 2006 at Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) 246 deals were made in corporate bonds in all sectors of the market (excluding repo-transactions sector) for a total of KZT30,408.0 m. or USD241.9 m. at the current rate effective on dates of concluding deals. The stated amount is 53.9% of monthly turnover of market of corporate securities (in December 2006 - 26.2%) and 1.0% of exchange's monthly turnover (1.1%). Statistic characteristic of corporate bonds market on KASE in December and November of 2006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Month: ------------------- Trend January December Jan 2007 Indicator 2007 2006 compared to Dec 2006 ------------------------------------------- --------- --------- ----------- Trades volume, th., USD 241,858.1 242,336.5 -0.2% Trades volume, m., KZT 30,408.0 30,977.3 -1.8% including, on offerings, th. USD 0 0 X including, on offerings, m. KZT 0 0 X including, on secondary market 241,858.1 242,336.5 -0.2% deals, th. USD including, on secondary market 30,408.0 30,977.3 -1.8% deals, m. KZT Number of deals 246 394 -37.6% Number of instruments, 70 78 -9.1% involved in deals Stake of nego deals (number), % 5.3 10.9 -5.6пп Stake of nego deals (volume), % 12.2 9.5 +2.7пп Participation of pension assets, % gross 14.1 18.2 -4.1пп Participation of physical entities, % gross 9.6 26.0 -16.4пп Number of exchange's members, 39 38 +2.6% who made deals Market concentration, %* 53.2 32.2 +21.0пп --------------------------------------------------------------------------- *it is specified the percentage out of total turnover of corporate bonds, which are numbered by the most traded securities (their quantity is 5% out of the total quantity of titles of corporate bonds, included in trading list of KASE) January at the exchange market of corporate bonds slightly differed from December. The statistics given in the table allows marking out some peculiarities of the month: substantial growth of market concentration - participants primarily worked with ASFIb7, BTASb7, TEBNb11, 47% of the exchange turnover comes to these bonds' share; continuation of fall of participation share of pension assets at the exchange corporate bond market, which in the analyzed month decreased to 14.1% (in 2006 - 25.7% with minimum - 16.4% in January); considerable decline of activity of physical entities in the given market segment. In terms of price the market still looks sufficiently balanced. Dynamics of weighted average net prices is described by the following statistics. In the analyzed month out of 70 bonds denominations, involved in deals at the secondary market, 38 denominations were traded lower than the nominal value; 32 were traded with premium. BTASb4 looked the most overpurchased (their weighted average net price for the month totaled 116.81% of the face value), the most oversold - NRBNb5 (90.17%). In December deals at the secondary market were carried out with bonds of 78 denominations, securities of 36 denominations were traded with discount, 42 - with premium. KRZHb1 looked most overpurchased (120.28%), most oversold - ASNDb1 (92.31%). The weighted average net price of corporate bonds at the secondary market in January totaled 101.24%, in December - 100.13%. In January on concluded deals the yield to maturity for a buyer of 31 corporate bonds increased, of 25 decreased. There was nothing to compare with the yield of four new securities. In December the corresponding indicators are 31,40 and 7. Dynamics of indexes of KASE_B* series, provided in the following table of main indicators of the market, was notable for the fact that yield index in the third ten-day period of January broke through the two-month horizontal channel and fixed in the area of 7.70% APR. it was caused by an adequate yield growth on quotations BTASb7 - bonds, which had the largest influence upon index in view of issue volume (KZT125 bn.). As it was specified above, these securities in the analyzed month were in the field of trades' attention. Only in the open market of KASE 10 deals for a total of $28.8 m. were closed with them. Price indexed of corporate bonds worked through a small correction downwards. Tables, which additionally characterize the exchange market of corporate bonds in January, are given below. Change of lists of corporate bonds, traded on KASE, in January 2007 ------------------------------------- Bonds: Issuers: Category of ------------ ------------ admission number trend number trend ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 181 -3 61 0 B 19 +1 18 +1 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 200 -2 79 +1 ------------------------------------- Notes: "A" - official "A" listing category; "B" - official "B" listing category; "A+B" - official list; by the end of the month, change for the month. Main indicators of KASE's corporate bond market in January 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------- Market. value of Index Volume of Volume of debt, KASE_BY, Index Index deals, deals, Date USD m. % APR KASE_BP KASE_BC th. USD m. KZT -------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- 29.12.06 12,892.7 7.41 201.65 129.61 19,389.0 2,462.4 03.01.07 12,927.7 7.20 202.48 130.60 282.4 35.8 04.01.07 12,924.6 7.20 202.54 130.60 1,634.8 206.9 05.01.07 12,953.5 7.19 202.68 130.68 4,771.3 601.6 08.01.07 12,960.2 7.21 202.53 130.49 4,509.2 567.1 09.01.07 12,979.9 7.21 202.60 130.52 4,492.3 563.6 10.01.07 12,989.1 7.41 201.25 129.59 66,248.3 8,294.3 11.01.07 12,994.8 7.21 202.74 130.55 7,540.9 946.7 12.01.07 13,008.2 7.18 203.07 130.78 4,866.8 611.0 15.01.07 13,021.6 7.43 201.71 129.77 3,000.2 375.9 16.01.07 12,964.9 7.23 203.10 130.67 3,870.8 484.9 17.01.07 12,967.7 7.23 203.15 130.68 5,188.3 649.4 18.01.07 12,977.0 7.24 203.05 130.58 4,988.0 623.5 19.01.07 12,984.6 7.23 203.24 130.69 2,931.0 366.0 22.01.07 12,962.2 7.23 203.36 130.69 2,049.8 256.8 23.01.07 12,938.8 7.24 203.27 130.60 978.0 122.9 24.01.07 12,940.7 7.23 203.44 130.67 8,228.1 1,034.4 25.01.07 12,940.4 7.84 199.89 128.28 25,045.7 3,149.5 26.01.07 12,921.7 7.82 200.14 128.43 55,122.9 6,958.2 29.01.07 12,911.9 7.85 199.90 128.17 5,662.5 714.0 30.01.07 12,845.3 7.66 201.06 128.91 13,825.2 1,745.3 31.01.07 12,825.0 7.68 200.85 128.74 16,621.5 2,100.3 -------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- Trend -67.7 +0.3 -0.8 -0.9 -0.5% +3.6% -0.4% -0.7% -------------------------------------------------------------- Summary data on the results of bond trades on KASE in January 2007 (purchase and sale, including offerings, without consideration of nego deals) ------------------------------------------------------------------- Yield to maturity for purchaser, % APR: ---------------------------------------- Code of At a last deal: For last Volume of bond --------------- ----------- deals, Number on KASE min. max. yield Trend, % min. max. th. USD Of deals ------- ------ ----- ------ -------- ----- ----- --------- -------- ALMXb1 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 2,851.3 1 ASBNb3 9.80 9.80 9.80 +0.66 7.50 9.85 25.5 1 ASFIb3 8.60 8.60 8.60 8.60 8.60 120.1 1 ASFIb5 11.00 11.50 11.50 +0.02 8.73 11.50 221.9 3 ASFIb6 9.50 11.00 11.00 8.50 11.94 7,646.3 3 ASFIb7 8.50 11.00 8.50 -1.80 8.50 11.00 53,077.8 14 ASNDb1 8.90 8.90 8.90 -2.10 8.90 11.00 4,027.0 1 ATFBb5 8.50 9.28 8.50 7.55 9.28 1,493.1 7 BTAIb1 10.00 10.00 10.00 +0.75 8.50 10.00 61.8 2 BTAIb11 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.30 8.50 3,303.1 2 BTAIb12 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.49 8.50 3,729.3 5 BTAIb3 10.10 10.10 10.10 7.70 10.10 15.6 1 BTAIb4 8.80 8.80 8.80 +0.04 8.20 10.00 420.0 1 BTAIb5 10.00 10.00 10.00 +1.22 8.45 10.00 67.2 1 BTAIb7 10.00 10.00 10.00 8.60 10.00 15.5 1 BTAIb8 9.50 10.50 10.50 8.20 10.50 45.9 2 BTASb1 10.84 11.00 10.84 +1.84 6.50 11.50 54.0 2 BTASb2 9.50 10.00 10.00 +0.50 7.90 11.20 98.1 2 BTASb4 7.50 7.50 7.50 -2.42 7.00 10.13 12.7 1 BTASb7 7.00 7.50 7.50 +0.50 6.85 7.50 28,849.7 10 CCBNb10 7.89 7.89 7.89 -0.01 7.89 8.25 1,834.6 2 CCBNb13 8.30 8.30 8.30 8.20 8.30 2,192.6 3 CCBNb14 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 2,113.8 1 CHFMb1 4.50 5.50 5.50 -1.00 4.50 10.00 43.1 3 CSBNb4 9.70 9.75 9.75 +0.05 8.75 9.87 91.9 2 CSBNb6 9.50 9.60 9.60 8.50 9.60 371.0 2 EUBNb3 8.20 8.20 8.20 0 8.00 8.20 6,650.3 2 GLOTb1 9.00 10.00 9.00 -1.00 9.00 10.00 786.6 2 HSBKb 11.00 12.00 11.00 -0.60 7.00 12.00 74.2 3 HSBKb10 7.49 7.49 7.49 0 6.10 8.46 4,250.2 2 HSBKb2 3.00 8.00 9.10 3.00 10.50 1,836.7 18 KASSb1 9.47 9.47 9.47 0 8.80 9.50 54.2 1 KASTb2 8.40 8.50 8.40 -1.78 8.40 10.20 494.1 2 KATRb1 12.00 13.00 12.00 0 10.00 13.00 6,090.1 12 KAZIb1 11.00 11.00 11.00 0 10.70 11.00 244.1 1 KIBNb1 11.50 12.87 11.64 +0.14 11.00 12.87 6,354.8 3 KKAGb1 12.00 12.00 12.00 +1.00 9.50 12.30 163.5 1 KKAGb3 9.20 9.20 9.20 -0.05 9.20 9.25 3,314.2 3 KKGBb2 9.92 9.92 9.92 +2.42 6.25 9.92 9,397.4 1 KKGBb3 7.50 7.51 7.51 5.10 9.00 59.3 4 KKGBb4 6.00 7.00 7.00 6.00 8.00 81.0 5 KONDb1 9.00 9.00 9.00 -0.20 9.00 9.20 5,961.1 1 KZASb2 8.70 8.70 8.70 0 8.00 8.90 332.3 2 KZIKb14 5.50 5.50 5.50 +2.00 3.00 5.50 32.2 2 KZNHb2 10.80 12.00 10.82 -1.18 9.50 13.50 2,290.4 15 MREKb1 8.50 8.50 8.50 0 8.50 8.75 89.6 6 MREKb2 9.05 9.05 9.05 0 8.75 9.05 271.0 1 MREKb3 9.50 9.50 9.50 0 9.50 9.50 1,544.2 1 NFBNb1 10.68 10.69 10.69 10.00 11.77 2,597.5 2 NRBNb2 9.00 9.62 9.62 +1.42 7.99 9.62 5,536.6 2 NRBNb3 8.15 8.15 8.15 -0.05 8.10 8.70 40.3 1 NRBNb4 8.35 8.45 8.45 +0.10 7.80 8.45 131.1 7 NRBNb5 8.30 9.10 9.10 +0.80 8.30 9.10 3,244.4 8 ORDBb2 11.50 12.53 12.53 +0.03 10.00 12.53 5,266.9 7 ORDKB1 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 127.1 3 ORNKb1 10.64 10.64 10.64 +0.64 9.80 12.00 582.2 1 RGBRb3 8.10 8.10 8.10 8.00 8.10 13.6 1 ROSAb1 10.00 14.00 14.00 10.00 14.00 102.4 7 TEBNb10 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 4,161.1 1 TEBNb11 8.50 8.76 8.71 +0.21 8.50 8.76 17,415.4 5 TEBNb2 16.00 16.00 16.00 0 13.50 16.50 6.8 1 TEBNb3 9.00 9.00 9.00 0 9.00 9.00 219.7 1 TSBNb1 9.20 9.60 9.60 +0.10 9.20 10.50 980.8 4 TSBNb4 9.02 10.20 10.20 +0.21 9.02 10.20 5,348.5 3 TSBNb5 10.00 10.00 10.00 0 10.00 10.52 238.0 2 TSBNb6 10.20 10.20 10.20 10.20 10.20 2,241.2 1 TXBNb3 8.70 8.70 8.70 -1.84 8.50 10.54 538.2 3 UKPFb1 12.00 13.00 12.08 +0.08 9.99 13.00 300.8 10 VITAb5 9.40 9.40 9.40 9.12 9.60 144.8 1 ------- ------ ----- ------ -------- ----- ----- --------- -------- 69 212,392.1 233 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Comments: Securities were sorted in alphabetical order according to codes of bonds. Trends are given in percentage points (1pp = 100 basis points) relative to the last deal of previous month - December 2006. In the code of bond by the number is noted the number of bonds' issue. In case of number absence (old quotation) is meant the first emission. The full list of codes of issuers is available at http://www.kase.kz/instruments/nzb_code.htm. [2007-02-13]