ANALYSIS: In November 2006 turnover of purchase-sale sector of corporate bonds decreased by 36.8% to $170.2 m.

/IRBIS, Natalya Khoroshevskaya, Andrey Tsalyuk, December 12, 06/ - In November 2006 on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) 244 deals were made in corporate bonds in all sectors of the market (excluding repo- transactions sector) for a total of KZT21,773.8 m. or USD170.2 m. at the current rate effective on dates of concluding deals. The stated amount is 29.0% of monthly turnover of market of corporate securities (in October 2006 - 55.9%) and 0.8% of exchange's monthly turnover (1.2%). Statistic characteristic of corporate bonds market on KASE in November and October of 2006 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Month: -------------------- Trend November October Nov 2006 compared to Indicator 2006 2006 Oct 2006 ---------------------------------- --------- --------- -------------------- Trades volume, th., USD 170,171.3 269,037.5 -36.7% Trades volume, m., KZT 21,773.8 34,325.1 -36.6% including, on offerings, th. USD 0 6,330.8 Х including, on offerings, m. KZT 0 808.3 Х including, on secondary market 170,171.3 262,706.7 -35.2% deals, th. USD including, on secondary market 21,773.8 33,516.9 -35.0% deals, m. KZT Number of deals 244.0 266.0 -8.3% Number of instruments, 63.0 74.0 -14.9% involved in deals Stake of nego deals (number), % 9.8 0.4 +9.4 bp Stake of nego deals (volume), % 4.2 4.2 0 bp Part of pension assets, % on gross 31.7 28.2 +3.5 bp Number of exchange's members, 36.0 37.0 -2.7% of those, who made deals Market concentration, %* 27.0 33.9 -6.9 bp ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ *it is specified the percentage out of total turnover of corporate bonds, which are numbered by the most traded securities (their quantity is 5% out of the total quantity of titles of corporate bonds, included in trading list of KASE) As one can see from the data given in tables, fall of turnover in this sector was caused by some reduction of the quantity of deals and instruments involved in them. IRBIS specialists explained this phenomenon of the analyzed month with the fact of absence of offerings, and also redeployment of investors' funds in the adjoining sectors of the market, mainly in shares market, which seemed to be more attractive. Out of 63 bond denominations, involved in November deals, securities of 36 denominations were characterized by the positive change of weighted average dirty prices, 25 - by negative. There was nothing to compare with prices of two new loan instruments. BTASb4 have become the growth leaders (by 5.7%), having replaced in this position DTJLb1 (+22.9% in October), which in its turn have become the fall leaders in the analyzed month (by 17.1%). Such a radical range of DTJLb1 prices fluctuation was caused by the single nego deal, made in October, and November market deal stabilized the rate of this instrument. In all, 9 bonds were characterized by the decline of weighted average day prices by 5% and over, while BTASb4 demonstrated the meaningful growth. Dynamics of weighted average net prices is described by the following statistics. In the analyzed month out of 63 bonds denominations, involved in deals at the secondary market, 32 denominations were traded lower than the nominal value; 31 were traded with premium. CCBNb4 look more repurchased (its weighted average net price as 113,59% of the face value), HSBKb10 (89.67%) - more resold. In October deals at the secondary market were carried out with bonds of 74 denominations, securities of 37 denominations were traded with discount, the same quantity - with premium. DTJLb1 (124.91%) looked more repurchased, BTAIb12 (90.19%) - more resold. The weighted average net price of corporate bonds at the secondary market in November totaled 99.57%, in October - 100.78%. In November on concluded deals earnings yield of called bonds to maturity for a purchaser increased at 25 corporate bonds, decreased at 36. There was nothing to compare with the yield of two securities. In October the corresponding indicators are 41, 29 and 3. The data give, and also tables drawn below allow to talk about minimal changes in he analyzed sector. It previously seems to be balanced in terms of prices. Tables, which additionally characterize the exchange market of corporate bonds in November, are given below. Change of lists of corporate bonds, traded on KASE, in November of 2006 ----------------------------------------- Bonds: Issuers: Category of ------------- ------------- admission number trend number trend ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 178 +2 58 0 B 17 +2 14 +2 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 195 +4 72 +2 ----------------------------------------- Notes: "A" - official "A" listing category; "B" - official "B" listing category; "A+B" - official list; by the end of the month, change for the month. Main indicators of KASE's corporate bond market in November of 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------- Market. value of Index Volume of Volume of debt, KASE_BY, Index Index deals, deals, Date USD m. % APR KASE_BP KASE_BC th. USD m. KZT -------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- 31.10.06 12,636.6 7.20 199.42 130.15 9,576.4 1,218.3 01.11.06 12,578.6 7.2 199.4 130.1 6,036.8 771.7 02.11.06 12,577.0 7.2 199.6 130.2 148.3 19.0 03.11.06 12,592.4 7.2 199.9 130.2 6,228.0 796.7 06.11.06 12,588.7 7.2 199.7 130.1 10,066.4 1,288.0 07.11.06 12,587.5 7.2 199.7 130.2 3,124.7 399.7 08.11.06 12,589.7 7.2 200.1 130.3 1,558.9 199.4 09.11.06 12,591.1 7.2 200.4 130.5 1,401.1 179.2 10.11.06 12,575.0 7.2 199.9 130.2 7,332.2 937.4 13.11.06 12,670.5 7.2 200.1 130.2 94.3 12.1 14.11.06 12,668.0 7.4 198.8 129.3 4,217.0 539.4 15.11.06 12,669.1 7.2 200.4 130.4 1,878.5 240.3 16.11.06 12,685.5 7.2 200.6 130.6 18,053.2 2,310.6 17.11.06 12,683.0 7.2 200.3 130.3 47,882.4 6,128.0 20.11.06 12,681.9 7.2 200.4 130.3 15,973.7 2,044.5 21.11.06 12,684.8 7.2 200.5 130.3 4,067.2 520.2 22.11.06 12,688.0 7.2 200.9 130.6 7,873.8 1,007.2 23.11.06 12,683.0 7.2 200.7 130.3 12,654.8 1,618.8 24.11.06 12,682.1 7.2 200.7 130.4 2,233.7 285.8 27.11.06 12,627.8 7.3 200.3 130.0 1,950.4 249.6 28.11.06 12,693.6 7.2 201.0 130.5 4,974.5 636.6 29.11.06 12,693.1 7.2 201.2 130.5 7,626.3 976.0 30.11.06 12,694.2 7.2 201.2 130.6 4,795.1 613.7 -------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- Trend +57.6 -0.03 +1.8 +0.4 +0.46% -0.37% +0.88% +0.32% -------------------------------------------------------------------- Summary data on the results of bond trades on KASE in November of 2006 (purchase and sale, including offerings) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Volume of deals: Code Brief ------------------ Num- Market Price of name of an th. m. ber of share, change, security Issuer USD KZT deals % % -------- ------------------------------- --------- -------- ------ ------ ------- ASBNb4 Alliance Bank JSC 17,895.5 2,289.4 13 10.52 -1.70 ORNKb1 Ornek XXI JSC 15,865.1 2,029.9 9 9.32 +2.78 PRKRb2 Food contract 2 corporation JSC 12,131.6 1,552.7 7.13 +0.82 VITAb5 VITA JSC 11,845.1 1,516.0 4 6.96 -3.26 CSBNb5 BANK CASPIAN JSC 8,976.3 1,148.7 4 5.27 +1.12 CCBNb14 Bank CenterCredit JSC 8,157.9 1,043.6 1 4.79 X ASFIb7 Astana-Finance JSC 8,050.6 1,030.3 8 4.73 -7.69 NRBNb4 Nurbank JSC 7,229.4 925.2 4 4.25 +0.61 NRBNb3 Nurbank JSC 6,494.5 831.1 4 3.82 +0.38 CSBNb3 BANK CASPIAN JSC 6,272.6 802.8 1 3.69 +0.56 KKAGb3 Kazakhstan Kagazy JSC 6,068.1 776.5 5 3.57 +1.61 CSBNb4 BANK CASPIAN JSC 5,642.6 722.1 1 3.32 +1.19 VITAb4 VITA JSC 4,238.2 542.3 6 2.49 -7.40 TSBNb5 Tsesnabank JSC 4,095.3 524.0 8 2.41 -0.58 NRBNb5 Nurbank JSC 4,039.1 517.0 2 2.37 -2.76 ASBNb7 Alliance Bank JSC 4,010.0 512.9 1 2.36 +0.58 KKGBb4 Kazkommertsbank JSC 3,947.5 504.7 1 2.32 +0.92 HSBKb11 Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 3,910.8 500.0 1 2.30 -7.98 ASFIb9 Astana-Finance JSC 2,985.1 382.1 1 1.75 +0.82 CCBNb4 Bank CenterCredit JSC 2,556.4 326.8 2 1.50 +0.93 TSBNb3 Tsesnabank JSC 2,363.5 302.5 3 1.39 +0.01 TSBNb2 Tsesnabank JSC 2,206.1 282.3 1 1.30 -0.93 BTAIb12 The daughter mortgage organization of the joint stock company Bank TuranAlem 1,974.5 252.6 3 1.16 +0.15 BTA Ipoteka JSC BTAIb3 The daughter mortgage organization of the joint stock company Bank TuranAlem 1,705.6 218.0 2 1.00 +1.06 BTA Ipoteka JSC TEBNb9 Temirbank JSC" 1,666.2 213.2 16 0.98 +1.99 MREKb3 Mangistau electric networks distributive company JSC 1,594.2 204.0 4 0.94 X HSBKb3 Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 1,521.4 194.7 2 0.89 +0.49 HSBKb10 Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 1,494.8 191.3 1 0.88 -4.23 ASFIb5 Astana-Finance JSC 1,405.7 179.8 27 0.83 +0.12 CCBNb13 Bank CenterCredit JSC 1,104.2 141.3 3 0.65 -3.43 CACMb1 Central Asia Cement JSC 850.4 108.8 3 0.50 +0.46 ASFIb6 Astana-Finance JSC 787.5 100.8 2 0.46 -6.28 BTAIb4 The daughter mortgage organization of the joint stock company Bank TuranAlem 743.0 95.1 4 0.44 -6.06 BTA Ipoteka JSC HSBKb2 Halyk savings bank of 564.3 72.2 6 0.33 +0.39 Kazakhstan JSC EUBNb3 Eurasian Bank 563.8 72.2 1 0.33 +1.03 of Kazakhstan JSC TXBNb3 TEXAKABANK JSC 487.1 62.3 4 0.29 +1.12 KZASb2 KOSTANAY MINERALS JSC 472.0 60.4 2 0.28 +1.26 TSSMb1 Transstroymost JSC 447.7 57.3 3 0.26 +1.69 KZALb1 Mining and smelting concern Kazakhaltyn JSC 428.0 54.7 2 0.25 +0.21 ATFBb5 ATFBank JSC 422.9 54.1 1 0.25 -8.49 KKAGb1 Kazakhstan Kagazy JSC 408.6 52.3 4 0.24 +1.12 ASFIb4 Astana-Finance JSC 363.8 46.5 4 0.21 +0.49 TXBNb2 TEXAKABANK JSC 350.9 44.9 7 0.21 +1.73 DTJLb1 Doszhan temir zholy JSC (DTZh) 297.1 38.0 1 0.17 -17.08 KAZIb1 Karaganda asbest- cement stuffs 235.8 30.2 1 0.14 +1.26 plant JSC GLOTb1 GLOTUR JSC 190.8 24.4 2 0.11 -3.18 KATRb1 KazAgroTrade + LLP 176.8 22.6 7 0.10 +0.74 HSBKb Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 160.0 20.5 11 0.09 -4.94 TEBNb2 Temirbank JSC 150.8 19.3 11 0.09 +0.56 TEBNb6 Temirbank JSC 100.2 12.8 1 0.06 +2.70 ATFBb3 ATFBank JSC 86.6 11.1 2 0.05 +1.32 BTASb4 Bank TuranAlem JSC 81.0 10.4 4 0.05 +5.66 UKPFb1 Ust-Kamenogorsk poultry plant 78.9 10.1 3 0.05 -0.03 JSC HSBKb5 Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 69.5 8.9 5 0.04 -2.37 BTAIb1 The daughter mortgage organization of the joint stock company Bank TuranAlem 51.8 6.6 1 0.03 -4.12 BTA Ipoteka JSC BTASb5 Bank TuranAlem JSC 46.9 6.0 2 0.03 -5.16 ASBNb3 Alliance Bank JSC 33.3 4.3 3 0.02 -4.86 TEBNb3 Temirbank JSC 20.4 2.6 1 0.01 -5.16 CSBNb6 BANK CASPIAN JSC 19.0 2.4 2 0.01 -4.48 BTAIb8 The daughter mortgage organization of the joint stock company Bank TuranAlem 15.3 2.0 1 0.01 -4.01 BTA Ipoteka JSC KZAPb1 NAC Kazatomprom JSC 10.7 1.4 1 0.01 +1.62 KZIKb3 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company 7.6 1.0 1 0.004 -0.49 JSC BTASb7 Bank TuranAlem JSC 0.8 0.1 1 0.0005 +0.27 -------- ------------------------------- --------- -------- ------ ------ ------- 63 170,171.3 21,773.8 244 100.00 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Comments: Securities were sorted in descending order based on the volumes of deals expressed in U.S. dollars. Figure means ordinal number of bond issue. Absence of figure (old coding) means this is the first issue. "X" - change of price is not calculated, as this security got the first estimation on KASE in the analyzed period. [2006-12-12]