ANALYSIS: As of November 1 of 2006 total state debt of Kazakhstan, issued as GS, along with servicing totaled KZT829.4 bn. or $6,488.9 m.

/IRBIS, Yelena Korpusenko, Andrey Tsalyuk, November 8, 06/ - As of November 1 of 2006 total state debt of Kazakhstan, issued as government securities (GS), including municipal bonds, along with the servicing (amount of coupon payments) equaled in current prices to KZT829.4 bn., or $6,488.9 m. at the rate of KZT127.82 per dollar. Specialists of IRBIS made such conclusion after analyzing its databases. While making the analysis the amounts of future payments on MEIKAM were calculated taking into consideration consumer price index registered for the period from August till October of 2006, on MEUJKAM - from November of 2005 till October of 2006. Within October 1 - 31 of 2006 total debt (taking into account the changes in the rate of the National Bank) in tenge equivalent increased by KZT32.4 bn. (+4.1%), in dollar equivalent - by 223.7 m. (+3.6%). Similar indicators of debt change in September of 2006 were minus KZT75.4 bn. (-8.6%) or minus $701.3 m. (-10.1%). Following table contains detailed information. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Amount and structure of debt ---------------------------- Change as of for the *Currency of Oct 31, 06 as of period ------------- ----------------- Sep 30, 06 --------------- Issuer issue service bn. KZT stake, % bn. KZT m. KZT % ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- National Bank KZT KZT 276.313 33.3 244.123 +32,189.9 +13.2 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- Ministry of Finance 548.536 66.1 547.567 +968.8 +0.2 incl. face value 408.599 49.3 412.655 -4,056.0 -1.0 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 363.862 43.9 368.128 -4,266.0 -1.2 also, euronotes USD USD 44.737 5.4 44.527 +210.0 +0.5 incl. servicing 139.937 16.9 134.912 +5,024.8 +3.7 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 134.960 16.3 129.959 +5,001.4 +3.8 also, euronotes USD USD 4.977 0.6 4.954 +23.4 +0.5 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- Municipals USD KZT 4.566 0.6 5.375 -808.8 -15.0 incl. face value USD KZT 3.984 0.5 4.761 -777.6 -16.3 incl. servicing USD KZT 0.582 0.1 0.613 -31.2 -5.1 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- incl. Astana akimat USD KZT 1.214 0.1 2.039 -824.5 -40.4 also, face value USD KZT 1.119 0.1 1.910 -791.0 -41.4 also, servicing USD KZT 0.095 0.01 0.129 -33.5 -26.0 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- incl. Atyrau region USD KZT 3.352 0.4 3.336 +15.7 +0.5 akimat also, face value USD KZT 2.865 0.3 2.851 +13.4 +0.5 also, servicing USD KZT 0.487 0.1 0.485 +2.3 +0.5 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- TOTAL 829.415 100.0 797.065 +32,350.0 +4.1 incl. face value 688.895 83.1 661.539 +27,356.4 +4.1 incl. servicing 140.519 16.9 135.526 +4,993.6 +3.7 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- OR ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- incl. internal debt KZT KZT 779.701 94.0 747.584 +32,116.6 +4.3 also, face value KZT KZT 644.158 77.7 617.012 +27,146.4 +4.4 also, servicing KZT KZT 135.542 16.3 130.572 +4,970.2 +3.8 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- --------- ----- incl. external debt USD USD 49.714 6.0 49.481 +233.4 +0.5 also, face value USD USD 44.737 5.4 44.527 +210.0 +0.5 also, servicing USD USD 4.977 0.6 4.954 +23.4 +0.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ *USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. Equivalents as of October 31, 06 were calculated at the rate of KZT127.82 per dollar, as of September 30, 06 - at KZT121.22. Therefore, the data shown in the table reflect the dynamics due to exchange rate fluctuations besides all other factors. Similar figures in U.S. dollars are given in the table as follows. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt ---------------------------- Change as of for the *Currency of Oct 30, 06 as of period ------------- ----------------- Sep 31, 06 ---------------- Issuer issue service m. USD stake, % m. USD th. USD % ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- National Bank KZT KZT 2,161.7 33.3 1,918.9 +242,830.4 +12.7 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- Ministry of Finance 4,291.5 66.1 4,304.1 -12,624.4 -0.3 incl. face value 3,196.7 49.3 3,243.6 -46,958.1 -1.4 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 2,846.7 43.9 2,893.6 -46,958.1 -1.6 also, euronotes USD USD 350.0 5.4 350.0 0 0 incl. servicing 1,094.8 16.9 1,060.5 +34,333.6 +3.2 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 1,055.9 16.3 1,021.5 +34,333.6 +3.4 also, euronotes USD USD 38.9 0.6 38.9 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- Municipals USD KZT 35.72 0.6 42.25 -6,525.6 -15.4 incl. face value USD KZT 31.2 0.5 37.4 -6,258.9 -16.7 incl. servicing USD KZT 4.6 0.1 4.8 -266.7 -5.5 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. Astana USD KZT 9.5 0.1 16.0 -6,525.6 -40.7 akimat also, face value USD KZT 8.8 0.1 15.0 -6,258.9 -41.7 also, servicing USD KZT 0.744 0.01 1.011 -266.7 -26.4 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. Atyrau USD KZT 26.2 0.4 26.2 0 0 region akimat also, face value USD KZT 22.4 0.3 22.4 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 3.8 0.1 3.8 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- TOTAL 6,488.9 100.0 6,265.2 +223,680.3 +3.6 incl. face value 5,389.6 83.1 5,200.0 +189,613.4 +3.6 incl. servicing 1,099.4 16.9 1,065.3 +34,066.9 +3.2 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- OR ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. internal debt KZT KZT 6,100.0 94.0 5,876.3 +223,680.3 +3.8 also, face value KZT KZT 5,039.6 77.7 4,850.0 +189,613.4 +3.9 also, servicing KZT KZT 1,060.4 16.3 1,026.3 +34,066.9 +3.3 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. external debt USD USD 388.9 6.0 388.9 0 0 also, face value USD USD 350.0 5.4 350.0 0 0 also, servicing USD USD 38.9 0.6 38.9 0 0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. According to the data of IRBIS, issue volume of the National Bank's GS in October by amounts of offering was KZT275,455.7 m. (in September - KZT360,750.7 m.). At that, the issuer paid off his liabilities for a total sum of KZT244,122.7 (KZT465,262.2 m.). October net-borrowing balance of the National Bank in GS market was plus KZT31,333.0 m. Corresponding index in September was minus KZT104,511.5 m. ("minus" sign in balance indicator means that the mentioned sum was withdrawn from issuer's budget and remained in investors' possession, "plus" sign - issuer borrowed more than redeemed). In October the Ministry of finance borrowed by offering of MEKAM KZT7,753.2 m. (in September - KZT31,913.0) and paid face value of bonds and coupons for a total of KZT13,250.1 m. (in September - KZT6,205.1 m.). October net-borrowing balance of the Ministry of finance is estimated by IRBIS at minus KZT5,496.9 m. (in September - minus KZT25,709.9 m.). Total October net-borrowing balance of all Kazakhstan GS issuers (including municipals) was estimated by IRBIS at plus KZT25,004.4 m. Similar indicator of September - minus KZT79,581.7 m. The given data display that in October the National Bank came back to the policy of sterilization of the excess tenge liquidity through the issue of its liabilities. IRBIS analysts are inclined to explain this phenomenon with changes, which took place on Kazakhstan USD market, where USD rate, to all appearances, reached the appropriate value for the head bank. In the current sates of affairs the further sterilization process through the currency floor of KASE has abruptly dropped down, which makes the National Bank come back to growing its short-term debt. IRBIS agency draws the attention of its subscribers and mass media to the fact that figures presented above are not official data since it was obtained through analyzing information on primary GS market using databases of the agency. As regards domestic bonds, agency's databases have been checked according to the data presented to IRBIS by Central securities depository JSC (Almaty). [2006-11-08]