ANALYSIS: unlikely the market of shares on KASE had satisfied its participants in September 2006

/IRBIS, Assel Omarova, Andrey Tsalyuk, October 12, 06/ - In September of year 2006 531 deals were registered in shares in all sectors (excluding repo- operations sector) on Kazakhstan stock exchange for a total of KZT20,027.5 m. or $158.6 m. according to the current rate on dates of making deals. The specified amount is 48.4% from the month turnover of the market of corporate securities on KASE (in August - 39.1%) and 1.0% from the entire month exchange's turnover (0.7%). Statistic characteristic of shares market on KASE in September and August of year 2006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Month: -------------------- Trend Sep Aug Sep 2006 to Indicator 2006 2006 Aug 2006 ---------------------------------------- --------- --------- ----------- Trades volume, th. USD 158,605.6 118,937.1 +33.4% Trades volume, m KZT 20,027.5 14,483.2 +38.3% including, on maturity, th. USD 0 0 X including, on maturity, m. KZT 0 0 X Number of deals 531 496 +7.1% Number of instruments, involved in deals 43 32 +34.4% Stake of nego deals (number), % 20.7 11.9 +8.8,pp Stake of nego dealsк (volume), % 76.1 68.2 +7.9,pp Part of pension assets, % on gross 12.0 10.3 +1.7,pp Number of exchange's members, who made deals 33 32 +3.1% Market concentration, %* 75.4 87.8 -12.4,pp --------------------------------------------------------------------------- * it is specified percentage out of the entire shares turnover, which is numbered by most traded securities (their number is 5% out kof the total number of shares titles, included in traded lists of KASE) Despite the significant increase of market activity, which mainly was reached due to growth of volume and number of nego deals, the market of shares in September unlikely had satisfied its participants. By the totals of month by the growth of average weighted day prices were characterized 37 % of shares involved into deals, fall - 51%, the rate reminded unchanged - 12%. The corresponding indicators of August - 59%, 38%, 3%. The positive change in prices for shares in September was observed in the range of 4.1% (HSBKp1) to 1,350.0% (UTMKp) and in average totaled 116.9%, negative - from 0.1% (KZTK) to 33.3% (KZTKp), in average - 11.8%. It failed to raise substantially the prices of usual favorites of market in September. The greatest success here was reached only in working with common shares Kazkommertsbank JSC (KKGB) - the most liquid stake instrument on KASE in September. The average weighted day price of KGB had grown by the month by 28.6%, including on the open market - by 4.7%. More modest results were reached with KZZN (KAZZINC JSC), which had grown by 15.3%, at that on the market deals. The other shares, which rate had the biggest influence on behavior of KASE_Shares index (AMGZ, KZTK, BTAS) were characterized by the slight fallen in price (see tables). Not expecting, that by this reason the brokers had focused in September on the work with preferred securities - KKGBp, TSBNp, MMGZp, rate of which it managed to raise upper then price of favorites. The fall of KASE_Shares index in September was characterized by low-inclined decreasing trend, which analysts of IRBIS consider as slightly expressed correction after growth in August. The forecast for October in this sector of exchange's market seems clear enough. The specialists of IRBIS are waiting for significant revival of market of stake instruments, which will be caused by starting of trades on KASE in common shares of Exploration Production KazMunayGas JSC after conducted IPO. But it doesn't manage to forecast the significant increase of prices. Below there are given the tables, characterizing the market of stake instruments on KASE in September 2006. Changes of KASE_Shares for different periods to the moment of trades' closing on September 29 2006 (basis actual/365) --------------------------------------------------------- Change: ---------------- Period % % APR --------------------------------------- -------- ------ For previous 30 days -8.1 -99.0 Since the beginning of the current year +177.2 +238.7 (since January 1, 06) For the last 365 days (year) +333.0 +333.0 For year 2005 +203.0 +203.0 Since the beginning of year 2004 +1 158.2 +421.9 --------------------------------------------------------- Main indicators of exchange's market of purchase and sales of shares in September of year 2006 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Market ca- Volume of Volume of Number of pitalization, Index deals, deals, deals Data m. USD KASE_Shares th. USD m. KZT ---------- ------------- ----------- --------- --------- --------- Aug 31, 06 29,227.6 1,797.05 6,766.2 847.9 27 Sep 1, 06 29,980.3 1,903.53 57,034.5 7,155.6 23 Sep 4, 06 29,475.0 1,899.68 627.4 78.8 30 Sep 5, 06 30,055.7 1,860.13 4,124.4 518.5 25 Sep 6,06 29,978.5 1,847.97 909.4 114.4 24 Sep 7, 06 29,612.7 1,824.57 578.9 72.9 26 Sep 8, 06 29,151.9 1,786.75 355.1 44.7 20 Sep 11, 06 29,240.0 1,813.85 274.0 34.5 19 Sep 12, 06 29,140.0 1,874.33 460.5 58.1 21 Sep 13, 06 29,035.6 1,862.10 4,281.5 540.1 29 Sep 14, 06 29,323.7 1,798.94 2,615.5 330.0 16 Sep 15, 06 29,299.7 1,878.68 3,814.5 481.2 31 Sep 18, 06 29,813.7 1,865.81 2,380.5 300.6 17 Sep 19, 06 29,300.3 1,846.36 2,411.5 304.8 23 Sep 20, 06 30,007.4 1,861.68 2,764.8 349.7 22 Sep 21, 06 30,012.7 1,806.27 1,315.1 166.5 30 Sep 22, 06 28,972.6 1,897.06 10,966.6 1,389.5 30 Sep 25, 06 29,456.6 1,844.71 252.2 32.0 16 Sep 26, 06 28,909.2 1,846.99 35,742.3 4,535.7 51 Sep 27, 06 29,728.8 1,754.83 8,182.4 1,039.4 28 Sep 28, 06 28,870.8 1,763.23 17,795.6 2,262.2 33 Sep 29, 06 28,698.2 1,791.99 1,718.9 218.7 17 ---------- ------------- ----------- --------- --------- --------- Trend -529.4 -5.06 -1.8% -0.28% ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Changes in list of shares trading on KASE, in September of year 2006 ----------------------------------------- Shares: Issuers: Category of ------------- ------------- admission number trend number trend ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 43 0 29 0 B 42 0 33 0 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 85 0 61 0 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- N 4 0 4 0 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- TOTAL 89 0 63 0 ----------------------------------------- Explanation to the table: "А" - official list of "A" category; "В" - official list of "B" category; "А+В" - official list; to the end of month, changes per month. Results of trades in shares on KASE in September of year 2006 in sector purchase and sales (including nego deals) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Price, tenge per a share: ---------------------------------------------------------------- Volume Num- on the last deal for the last 365 days: ber ------------------- ---------------------- of deals, of Shares trend th. de- code min. max. price % min. max. USD als ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- -------- ---------- ----------- --------- ---- ALKZ 2,000.00 2,800.00 2,000.00 100.00 2,800.00 856.4 8 ALKZp 100.00 80.00 100.00 0 0 AMGZ 99,000.00 99,000.00 99,000.00 -1.0 33,000.00 130,000.00 44.1 5 AMGZp 30,690.00 54,769.00 30,690.00 -31.8 10,500.00 54,769.00 67.9 2 ASBN 30,000.00 42,000.01 40,000.00 +8.1 11,000.00 47,500.00 486.8 20 ASBNp1 12,450.00 16,000.00 12,450.00 -1.6 12,450.00 16,900.00 7,709.2 16 ASFI 7,806.02 8,100.00 7,806.02 -3.6 1,268.84 11,500.00 1,642.4 2 ATFB 7,250.00 8,900.00 7,500.00 -13.8 1,103.00 15,710.00 43,438.9 52 ATFBp 2,150.00 4,200.00 4,049.00 +32.7 1,250.00 4,200.00 232.1 6 ATFBp8 2,200.00 2,400.00 2,200.00 -8.3 1,085.00 4,150.00 1,787.8 5 AZNO 9,500.00 9,200.01 16,000.00 0 0 BTAS 100,000.00 120,000.00 100,000.00 -9.1 20,145.60 190,000.00 318.3 10 CCBN 980.00 1,275.00 1,150.00 +4.6 201.00 2,400.00 148.4 7 CHFM 1,188.00 1,188.00 1,650.00 0 0 CSBN 3,000.00 3,683.99 3,500.00 +12.7 184.00 4,000.00 4,016.9 18 CSBNp 600.00 200.00 700.01 0 0 DAMU 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,000.00 59.0 1 GLOT 5,500.00 5,500.00 5,500.00 -8.3 1,500.00 6,000.00 23.8 3 HSBK 235.00 310.00 270.00 -15.6 38.00 420.00 107.5 5 HSBKp 180.00 180.00 180.00 141.00 180.00 17.2 1 HSBKp1 180.00 180.00 180.00 +4.1 169.00 200.00 0.4 1 KANT 1,450.00 400.10 1,800.00 0 0 KIBN 150.00 150.00 150.00 -6.2 150.00 230.00 16.2 2 KKGB 840.90 1,139.00 1,080.00 +28.4 250.00 1,800.00 8,750.7 124 KKGBp 152.50 450.00 319.39 +219.4 100.00 600.00 59,670.2 31 KZCR 20,000.00 38,000.00 30,000.00 1,000.00 50,000.00 418.2 5 KZCRp 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,000.00 0 0 KZDK 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,000.00 59.0 1 KZIS 28,000.00 28,000.00 28,000.00 -22.2 15,750.00 82,500.00 33.4 1 KZTC 13,125.00 1,450.00 20,000.00 0 0 KZTCp 1,600.01 1,600.01 1,600.01 +0.01 1,600.00 9,000.00 6.3 1 KZTK 29,500.00 31,000.00 29,500.00 -4.84 9,137.00 50,000.00 267.5 16 KZTKp 10,005.00 11,500.00 10,005.00 -33.3 6,700.00 26,000.00 50.5 11 KZZN 7,500.00 11,000.00 8,500.00 +13.3 3,400.00 18,500.00 382.3 43 MMGZp 12,600.00 17,500.00 15,000.00 +50.0 1,000.00 21,250.00 4,361.5 5 NFBN 1,739.60 1,739.60 1,739.60 +16.0 1,321.00 1,739.60 27.4 1 NRBN 44,000.00 44,000.00 44,000.00 25,650.00 62,160.00 64.7 1 NRBNp6 33,499.50 33,499.50 33,499.50 22,000.00 35,000.00 131.8 2 ORDB 3,900.00 4,399.99 4,399.99 2,000.00 4,400.00 5,935.5 8 ORDBp 1,700.00 2,101.00 2,101.00 1,500.00 2,101.00 735.4 2 ORNK 2.00 1.00 2.00 0 0 PDES 900.00 970.01 970.01 -3.0 655.00 14,325.00 744.2 2 RAHT 1,285.00 3,500.00 3,500.00 +175.6 100.00 3,500.00 176.8 4 ROSA 603.32 600.00 680.69 0 0 TEBN 2,588.84 4,350.00 3,000.00 -28.6 811.00 4,855.00 7,542.1 10 TEBNp 1,092.43 1,150.00 1,092.43 1,000.00 1,325.00 963.3 4 TSBN 1,800.00 1,800.00 1,800.00 1,000.00 2,550.00 0.4 1 TSBNp 1,000.00 2,100.00 1,900.00 +18.7 1,000.00 2,110.00 2,891.2 18 UTMK 35,000.00 3,435.00 38,250.00 0 0 UTMKp 100.00 29,000.00 29,000.00 +1,350.0 100.00 29,000.00 300.3 2 VTBN 228.50 350.00 289.99 -3.3 225.00 530.00 3,788.0 47 VTBNp 265.00 350.00 265.00 -29.3 235.00 375.00 327.7 26 ZERD 1.10 1.10 1.10 0.80 1.70 3.9 1 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- -------- ---------- ----------- --------- ---- 53 158,605.6 531 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Notes to the table: In case of deals absence for the period (volume = 0), it is specified the last price of resulting trades. Trends (change, %) are given relative to the last deal of the previous month (August 1 - 31, 2006). If there were no deals last month, trend is not calculated. 10-top most capitalized companies of KASE whose shares are in official securities list of the exchange (to the moment of trades closing by specified dates) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- As of September 29, 06: as of August 30, 06: Change: Short or ---------------------------------------------- -------------- abbreviated po- capi- stake po- capi- stake capi- titleof the si- taliza- of the compa- si- taliza- of the taliza- stake, company ti- tion, ti- tion, compa- tion, % (all - JSC) on m USD ny, % on m USD ny, % m USD points --------------- --- ------- ------------- ---- -------- ------ ------- ------ CNPC-Aktobe- 1 6962.0 24.26 1 7138.9 24.43 -176.9 -0.17 munaygas Bank TuranAlem 2 3581.2 12.48 2 3999.0 13.68 -417.8 -1.20 Kazkommertsbank 3 3520.6 12.27 4 2634.7 9.01 +885.9 +3.25 Kazakhtelecom 4 2564.5 8.94 3 2750.2 9.41 -185.7 -0.47 Halyk bank 5 2056.5 7.17 5 2434.2 8.33 -377.7 -1.16 JNC Kazchrom 6 1691.4 5.89 6 1717.0 5.87 -25.6 +0.02 KAZSYNC 7 1379.3 4.81 8 1235.5 4.23 +143.8 +0.58 ATFBank 8 1118.3 3.90 7 1308.0 4.48 -189.7 -0.58 Alliance Bank 9 903.8 3.15 10 852.3 2.92 +51.5 +0.23 Alluminium of 10 836.5 2.91 9 1102.6 3.77 -266.1 -0.86 Kazakhstan ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Not to the table: Stake of the company, % - indicator, calculated by ratio of market capitalization of the company to total capitalization of exchange's market of shares, listed by KASE, and expressed in percentage. This indicator at the session closing as of September 29, 2006 was $28,698.2 m. There were 85 shares of 61 issuers in official securities list of KASE. [2006-10-12]