ANALYSIS: As of October 1 of 2006 total state debt of Kazakhstan, issued as GS, along with servicing totaled KZT797.1 bn. or $6,265.2 m.

/IRBIS, Yelena Korpusenko, Andrey Tsalyuk, October 5, 06/ - As of October 1 of 2006 total state debt of Kazakhstan, issued as government securities (GS), including municipal bonds, along with the servicing (amount of coupon payments) equaled in current prices to KZT797.1 bn., or $6,265.2 m. at the rate of KZT127.22 per dollar. Specialists of IRBIS made such conclusion after analyzing its databases. While making the analysis the amounts of future payments on MEIKAM were calculated taking into consideration consumer price index registered for the period from July till September of 2006, on MEUJKAM - from October of 2005 till September of 2006. Within September 1 - 30 of 2006 total debt (taking into account the changes in the rate of the National Bank) in tenge equivalent decreased by KZT75.4 bn. (-8.6%), in dollar equivalent - by 701.3 m. (-10.1%). Similar indicators of debt change in August of 2006 were plus KZT109.5 bn. (+14.3%) or plus $522.5 m. (+8.1%). Following table contains detailed information. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt ---------------------------- Change as of as of for the *Currency of Sep 30, 06 Aug 31, 06 period ------------- ----------------- ---------- ---------------- Issuer issue service bn. KZT stake, % bn. KZT m. KZT % ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- National Bank KZT KZT 244.123 30.6 347.532 -103,409.3 -29.8 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- Ministry of Finance 547.567 68.7 518.895 +28,672.0 +5.5 incl. face value 412.655 51.8 385.380 +27,275.0 +7.1 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 368.128 46.2 341.546 +26,582.0 +7.8 also, euronotes USD USD 44.527 5.6 43.834 +693.0 +1.6 incl. servicing 134.912 16.9 133.515 +1,397.0 +1.0 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 129.959 16.3 128.639 +1,320.0 +1.0 also, euronotes USD USD 4.954 0.6 4.877 +77.1 +1.6 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- Municipals USD KZT 5.375 0.7 6.060 -685.4 -11.3 incl. face value USD KZT 4.761 0.6 5.425 -663.2 -12.2 incl. servicing USD KZT 0.613 0.1 0.636 -22.2 -3.5 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. Astana akimat USD KZT 2.039 0.3 2.007 +31.7 +1.6 also, face value USD KZT 1.910 0.2 1.881 +29.7 +1.6 also, servicing USD KZT 0.129 0.02 0.127 +2.0 +1.6 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. Atyrau region USD KZT 3.336 0.4 4.053 -717.2 -17.7 akimat also, face value USD KZT 2.851 0.4 3.544 -692.9 -19.6 also, servicing USD KZT 0.485 0.1 0.509 -24.2 -4.8 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- TOTAL 797.065 100.0 872.487 -75,422.7 -8.6 incl. face value 661.539 83.0 738.336 -76,797.5 -10.4 incl. servicing 135.526 17.0 134.151 +1,374.8 +1.0 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- OR ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. internal debt KZT KZT 747.584 93.8 823.777 -76,192.8 -9.2 also, face value KZT KZT 617.012 77.4 694.502 -77,490.5 -11.2 also, servicing KZT KZT 130.572 16.4 129.274 +1,297.7 +1.0 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- incl. external debt USD USD 49.481 6.2 48.711 +770.1 +1.6 also, face value USD USD 44.527 5.6 43.834 +693.0 +1.6 also, servicing USD USD 4.954 0.6 4.877 +77.1 +1.6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. Equivalents as of September 30, 06 were calculated at the rate of KZT127.22 per dollar, as of August 31, 06 - at KZT125.24. Therefore, the data shown in the table reflect the dynamics due to exchange rate fluctuations besides all other factors. Similar figures in U.S. dollars are given in the table as follows. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt ---------------------------- Change as of as of for the *Currency of Sep 30, 06 Aug 31, 06 period ------------- ----------------- ---------- ----------------- Issuer issue service m. USD stake, % m. USD th. USD % ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ------ National Bank KZT KZT 1,918.9 30.6 2,774.9 -856,026.5 -30.8 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ------ Ministry of Finance 4,304.1 68.7 4,143.2 +160,890.6 +3.9 incl. face value 3,243.6 51.8 3,077.1 +166,501.2 +5.4 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 2,893.6 46.2 2,727.1 +166,501.2 +6.1 also, euronotes USD USD 350.0 5.6 350.0 0 0 incl. servicing 1,060.5 16.9 1,066.1 -5,610.6 -0.5 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 1,021.5 16.3 1,027.1 -5,610.6 -0.5 also, euronotes USD USD 38.9 0.6 38.9 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ------ Municipals USD KZT 42.25 0.7 48.4 -6,140.9 -12.69 incl. face value USD KZT 37.4 0.6 43.3 -5,887.1 -14 incl. servicing USD KZT 4.8 0.1 5.1 -253.8 -5.0 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ------ incl. Astana USD KZT 16.0 0.3 16.0 0 0 akimat also, face value USD KZT 15.0 0.2 15.0 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 1.011 0.02 1.011 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ------ incl. Atyrau USD KZT 26.2 0.4 32.4 -6,140.9 -19.0 region akimat also, face value USD KZT 22.4 0.4 28.3 -5,887.1 -20.8 also, servicing USD KZT 3.8 0.1 4.1 -253.8 -6.2 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ------ TOTAL 6,265.2 100.0 6,966.5 -701,276.8 -10.07 incl. face value 5,200.0 83.0 5,895.4 -695,412.4 -11.8 incl. servicing 1,065.3 17.0 1,071.2 -5,864.5 -0.5 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ------ OR ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ------ incl. internal debt KZT KZT 5,876.3 93.8 6,577.6 -701,276.8 -10.7 also, face value KZT KZT 4,850.0 77.4 5,545.4 -695,412.4 -12.5 also, servicing KZT KZT 1,026.3 16.4 1,032.2 -5,864.5 -0.6 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ---------- ------ incl. external debt USD USD 388.9 6.2 388.9 0 0 also, face value USD USD 350.0 5.6 350.0 0 0 also, servicing USD USD 38.9 0.6 38.9 0 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. According to the data of IRBIS, issue volume of the National Bank's GS in September by amounts of offering was KZT360,750.7 m. (in August - KZT346,551.1 m.). At that, the issuer paid off his liabilities for a total sum of KZT465,262.2 (KZT295,570.4 m.).August net-borrowing balance of the National Bank in GS market was minus KZT104,511.5 m. Corresponding index in August was plus KZT50,980.8 m. ("minus" sign in balance indicator means that the mentioned sum was withdrawn from issuer's budget and remained in investors' possession, "plus" sign - issuer borrowed more than redeemed). In September the Ministry of finance borrowed by offering of MEKAM KZT31,913.0 m. (in August - KZT36,665.7) and paid face value of bonds and coupons for a total of KZT6,205.1 m. (in August - KZT4,617.1 m.). September net-borrowing balance of the Ministry of finance is estimated by IRBIS at plus KZT25,709.9 m. (in August - plus KZT32,048.6 m.). Total September net-borrowing balance of all Kazakhstan GS issuers (including municipals) was estimated by IRBIS at minus KZT79,581.7 m. Similar indicator of August -plus KZT83,029.4 m. The given data allow confirming that on initial GS market again there are changes. Active sterilization of excessive tenge liquidity through sale of dollars on KASE let the National Bank work out September with negative net- borrowings balance. At that inflation risks have not increase, and the amount of debt of the National Bank in circulation has declined. IRBIS agency draws the attention of its subscribers and mass media to the fact that figures presented above are not official data since it was obtained through analyzing information on primary GS market using databases of the agency. As regards domestic bonds, agency's databases have been checked according to the data presented to IRBIS by Central securities depository JSC (Almaty). [2006-10-05]