ANALYSIS: In August of 2006 parameters of market of corporate bonds on KASE practically did not change

/IRBIS, Assel Omarova, Andrey Tsalyuk, September 11, 06/ - In August of 2006 on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) 211 deals were made in corporate bonds in all sectors of the market (excluding repo-transactions sector) for a total of KZT22,796.5 m. or $185.0 m. at the current rate effective on deals making dates. The stated amount is 61.2% of monthly turnover of corporate security market (in July of 2006 - 72.3%) and 1.1% from the exchange's whole monthly turnover (1.5%). Statistic characteristic of the corporate bonds market on KASE in August and July of year 2006 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Month: ------------------- Trend August July August 2006 Indicator 2006 2006 against July 2006 ---------------------------------------- --------- --------- ----------- Trades volume, th., USD 184,998.2 180,219.7 +2.7% Trades volume, m., KZT 22,796.5 21,283.2 +7.1% including, on offerings, th. USD 27,007.1 0 X including, on offerings, m. KZT 3,372.5 0 X Number of deals 157,991.2 180,219.7 -12.3% number of instruments, involved in deals 19,424.0 21,283.2 -8.7% Stake of nego deals (number), % 211 255 -17.3% Stake of nego deals (volume), % 62 72 -13.9% Part of pension assets, % on gross 3.3 16.9 -13.6 bp Number of exchange's members, of those, 3.5 9.2 -5.7 bp who made deals Market concentration, %* 33.6 27.1 +6.5 bp ------------------------------------------------------------------------ *it is specified the percentage out of total turnover of corporate bonds, which are numbered by the most traded securities (their quantity is 5% out of the total quantity of titles of corporate bonds, included in trading list of KASE) As it is seen from the represented tables, the growth of turnover of exchange deals in the given sector was reached owing to primary market, on which in August were offered bonds of Central Asia Cement JSC (Temirtau) KZ2C0Y05C101 issue (KASE's official list of "A" category, CACMb1, KZT1, KZT2,7 bn., August 7, 06 - August 7, 11, semi-annual coupon 9.00% APR, 30/360) and Holding group ALMEX (Almaty) of KZ2C0Y05C168 issue (KASE's official "A" listing category, ALMXb1, KZT1, KZT8,0 bn., August 22, 06 - August 22, 11, annual coupon 8.00% Apr, 30/360). At the secondary exchange market the volume of deals with corporate bonds falls third month running, which can be estimated as tendency. IRBIS's specialists explain it by weak replenishment of the secondary market by the primary during the summer months. The evident widening of exchange's list of bonds was fixed only in the end of August and it doesn't bring its fruits yet. Change of lists of corporate bonds, traded on KASE, in August of 2006 ------------------------------------- Bonds: Issuers: Category of ------------ ------------ admission number trend number trend ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 176 +10 58 +6 B 11 0 10 0 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 187 +10 68 +6 ------------------------------------- Notes: "A" - official "A" listing category; "B" - official "B" listing category; "A+B" - official list; by the end of the month, change for the month. Negative role on the sector of corporate bonds had influenced the abstraction of money of banks to the trade by US dollar, and also sharpening oppositions between bonds buyers and sellers. The last were conditioned mainly by summer and autumn innovations of regulators, which made money of banks more expensive. In such situation compromise between buyers and sellers of debt papers is reaching more harder, and it negatively influences on indicators of secomdary market's liquidity. From 60 names of bonds, entrained to deals of August, by positive change of average weighted dirty prices papers of 35 names were characterized, by negative - 23. Prices of two new debt instruments were nothing to compare with. Leaders of growth (by 11.8%) became CCBNb9, of fallen - (by 8.1%) - ASFIb4. Growth of average weighted day dirty price by 5% and more showed one paper, while by the significant fall of price were characterized four bonds. Dynamics of weighted average net prices is characterized by the following statistical data. Out of 60 titles of bonds, involved in deals at the secondary market in the analyzed month, 32 titles were traded under face value, 25 titles - with bonus. The most over-purchased seemed to be CCBNb9 (their net price per month made 113.52% from the face value), the most resold - ASFIb4 (96.66%). 72 titles of bonds took part in deals at the secondary market, 33 titles were traded with discount, 30 - with bonuses. The most repurchased seemed to be KZIKb2 (122.59%), resold - also ASFIb9 (83.67%). Weighted average net price of corporate bonds at the secondary market in August made 104.96%, in July - 103.35%. In August 29 corporate bonds increased their profitability to maturity for purchasers 29 - decreased. Основные индикаторы рынка корпоративных облигаций на KASE в августе 2006 года ------------------------------------------------------------------ Market cost Index Volume Volume of the debt, KASE_BY, Index Index of deals, of deals, Date m., USD % APR KASE_BP KASE_BC th. USD m. KZT -------- ------------ -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- 31.07.06 11,944.6 7.03 196.06 130.29 10,113.1 1,197.5 01.08.06 11,929.2 7.03 196.03 130.26 6,388.5 758.2 02.08.06 11,908.9 7.03 196.12 130.26 1,455.4 173.3 03.08.06 11,891.0 7.03 196.10 130.22 3,606.5 429.9 04.08.06 11,934.0 7.03 196.28 130.32 22,044.0 2,653.2 07.08.06 12,156.4 7.02 196.44 130.35 0.0 0.0 08.08.06 12,156.4 7.02 196.57 130.38 1,233.3 150.9 09.08.06 12,384.9 7.29 194.69 129.12 16,137.6 1,977.8 10.08.06 12,386.4 7.28 194.86 129.21 11,475.7 1,406.2 11.08.06 12,378.1 7.05 196.46 130.25 11,501.1 1,409.8 14.08.06 12,378.0 7.03 196.86 130.45 355.1 43.5 15.08.06 12,373.9 7.04 196.75 130.35 9,186.7 1,126.8 16.08.06 12,339.2 7.04 197.01 130.49 566.5 69.9 17.08.06 12,325.4 7.06 196.84 130.37 15,855.3 1,963.5 18.08.06 12,325.6 7.04 197.16 130.53 5,928.6 734.5 21.08.06 12,306.6 7.05 197.13 130.44 12,999.3 1,615.0 22.08.06 12,424.5 7.05 197.29 130.51 1,562.1 194.7 23.08.06 12,429.5 7.04 197.33 130.56 18,400.1 2,295.6 24.08.06 12,427.0 7.04 197.36 130.55 4,929.0 615.3 25.08.06 12,413.8 7.04 197.42 130.56 24,017.6 3,004.4 28.08.06 12,406.9 7.12 197.54 130.57 6,221.6 779.1 29.08.06 12,408.8 7.12 197.51 130.52 7,197.4 901.4 31.08.06 12,402.9 7.12 197.51 130.49 3,937.1 493.4 -------- ------------ -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- Trend +458.3 +0.10 +1.46 +0.21 +3.8% +1.38% +0.74% +0.16% ------------------------------------------------------------------ Summary data by the results of bond trades on KASE in July of 2006 (purchase and sale, including offerings) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Volume of deals: Brief ------------------ Num- Market Price Code of name of th. m. ber of share, change, security Issuer USD KZT deals % % -------- -------------------------- --------- -------- ------ ------ ------- KZIKb4 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 13,249.9 1,609.3 2 8.39 +0.35 NRBNb5 Nurbank JSC 12,799.6 1,576.6 4 8.10 -0.05 KZIKb12 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 11,199.8 1,360.8 2 7.09 -0.43 BTASb7 Bank TuranAlem JSC 10,630.8 1,302.9 4 6.73 -1.57 TEBNb8 Temirbank JSC 9,880.8 1,232.7 2 6.25 +0.59 TSBNb2 Tsesnabank JSC 9,344.6 1,161.0 4 5.91 -2.17 TEBNb9 Temirbank JSC 8,460.0 1,036.7 1 5.35 +1.06 DTJLb1 Doszhan temir zholy (DTZh) JS0C 8,398.1 1,047.7 1 5.32 X BTASb3 Bank TuranAlem JSC 6,915.0 861.3 3 4.38 +2.81 KZIKb3 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 5,870.7 712.9 2 3.72 +0.78 KZIKb2 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 5,234.8 636.0 2 3.31 +0.79 KKAGb2 Kazakhstan Kagazy JSC 3,784.0 457.6 5 2.40 +2.68 ASBNb3 Alliance Bank JSC 3,688.1 441.4 7 2.33 +0.48 BTAIb4 Daughter mortgage organization of the joint company Bank TuranAlem BTA Ipoteka JSC 3,581.3 447.1 16 2.27 +0.80 CSBNb6 BANK CASPIAN JSC 3,469.4 433.8 5 2.20 +2.53 HSBKb7 Halyk savings bank JSC 3,440.8 430.4 1 2.18 -1.91 KZNHb2 Kazneftechim JSC 3,254.2 407.6 3 2.06 -6.92 TSNAb1 Corporation Tsesna JSC 3,130.8 390.6 2 1.98 +1.28 HSBKb Halyk savings bank JSC 2,594.7 309.3 6 1.64 +0.53 ASFIb8 Astana-Finance JSC 2,308.4 276.5 4 1.46 -1.23 VITAb5 VITA JSC 2,187.6 273.6 4 1.38 +2.56 TEBNb3 Temirbank JSC 2,164.8 265.9 4 1.37 +4.36 KKGBb5 Kazkommertsbank JSC 2,085.5 258.3 4 1.32 +4.36 VTBNb2 Valyut-Transit-Bank JSC 2,040.1 250.0 1 1.29 +0.27 ATFBb5 ATFBank JSC 1,988.6 248.8 2 1.26 +4.09 CCBNb9 Bank TsentrCredit JSC 1,833.8 227.1 2 1.16 +11.82 PRKRb2 Food Contract Corporation JSC 1,712.2 206.1 1 1.08 -0.19 ASBNb2 Alliance Bank JSC 1,338.9 165.3 5 0.85 -4.48 VITAb4 VITA JSC 1,252.0 152.0 6 0.79 +1.33 ASBNb1 Alliance Bank JSC 1,195.7 148.6 2 0.76 +2.16 PDESb1 PAVLODARENERGOSERVICE JSC 1,123.7 139.0 17 0.71 -3.18 KZIKb6 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 996.1 122.7 3 0.63 -0.82 PRKRb1 Food Contract Company JSC 883.7 108.3 1 0.56 -3.81 ASFIb7 Astana-Finance JSC 865.5 106.1 3 0.55 +0.40 NFBNb1 OILBANK JSC 825.6 98.6 1 0.52 +2.41 TSBNb3 Tsesnabank JSC 811.2 97.6 2 0.51 -1.61 KASSb1 NSCC KazStroyService JSC 637.6 78.3 4 0.40 -5.22 ASFIb4 Astana-Finance JSC 521.9 63.0 5 0.33 -8.11 UKPFb1 Ust-Kamenogorsk poultry fabrics JSC 495.2 60.9 4 0.31 -3.77 TXBNb2 TEXAKABANK JSC 342.7 42.1 2 0.22 -0.21 VTBNb3 Valyut-Transit-Bank JSC 339.5 42.1 2 0.21 +2.48 ASFIb5 Astana-Finance JSC 278.0 34.2 2 0.18 +0.85 BTASb1 Bank TuranAlem JSC 161.9 20.0 4 0.10 -1.46 BRKZb1 Bank of Development of Kazakhstan JSC 143.8 17.8 10 0.09 -1.67 VTBNb1 Valyut-Transit-Bank JSC 107.3 13.2 3 0.07 +1.50 HSBKb2 Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 78.6 9.7 5 0.05 +0.55 VTBNb4 Valyut-Transit-Bank JSC 66.6 8.3 4 0.04 -2.80 BTASb2 Bank TuranAlem JSC 48.9 6.1 1 0.03 -3.99 ATFBb3 ATFBank JSC 39.3 4.8 1 0.02 +0.66 KZASb2 KOSTANAY MINERALS JSC 35.5 4.3 2 0.02 -0.53 HSBKb5 Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 33.7 4.2 1 0.02 +1.58 KKGBb2 Kazkommertsbank JSC 29.8 3.7 3 0.02 -5.37 HSBKb3 Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 22.2 2.6 1 0.01 +0.12 NRBNb2 Nurbank JSC 21.5 2.7 2 0.01 +1.12 HSBKb4 Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 15.8 2.0 1 0.01 +4.88 KZIKb14 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 13.4 1.7 1 0.01 X KATRb1 KazAgroTrade+ JSC 10.6 1.3 2 0.01 +1.14 CCBNb4 Bank TsentrCredit JSC 3.6 0.4 1 0.002 +1.29 ATFBb4 ATFBank JSC 1.7 0.2 1 0.001 +2.65 BTASb4 Bank TuranAlem JSC 1.4 0.2 1 0.001 +2.88 -------- -------------------------- --------- -------- ------ ------ ------- 60 157,991.2 19,424.0 197 100.0 , ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Comments: Securities were sorted in descending order based on the volumes of deals expressed in U.S. dollars. Figure means ordinal number of bond issue. Absence of figure (old coding) means this is the first issue. "X" - change of price is not calculated, as this security got the first estimation on KASE in the analyzed period. [2006-09-11]