ANALYSIS: As of September 1 of 2006 total state debt of Kazakhstan issued as GS along with servicing totaled KZT872.5 bn. or $6,966.5 m.

/IRBIS, Yelena Korpusenko, September 6, 06/ - As of September 1 of 2006 total state debt of Kazakhstan issued as government securities (GS), including municipal bonds, along with the servicing (amount of coupon payments) equaled in current prices to KZT872.5 bn., or $6,966.4 m. at the rate of KZT125.24 per dollar. Specialists of IRBIS made such conclusion after analyzing its databases. While making the analysis the amounts of future payments on MEIKAM were calculated taking into consideration consumer price index registered for the period from June till August of 2006, on MEUJKAM - from September of 2005 till August of 2006. Within August 1 - 31 of 2006 total debt (taking into account the changes in the rate of the National Bank) in tenge equivalent increased by KZT109.5 bn. (+14.3%), in dollar equivalent - by 522.5 m. (+8.1%). Similar indicators of debt change in July of 2006 were -KZT110.3 bn. (-12.6%) or -$914.3 m. (+12.4%). Following table contains detailed information. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt ---------------------------- Change as of for the *Currency of August 31, 06 as of period ------------- ---------------- July 31, 06 ----------------- Issuer issue service bn. KZT stake, % bn. KZT m. KZT % ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ----------- ---------- ------ National Bank KZT KZT 347.532 39.8 295.570 +51,961.7 +17.6 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ----------- ---------- ------ Ministry of Finance 518.895 59.5 461.734 +57,161.6 +12.4 incl. face value 385.380 44.2 350.804 +34,575.9 +9.9 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 341.546 39.1 309.360 +32,185.4 +10.40 also, euronotes USD USD 43.834 5.0 41.444 +2,390.5 +5.8 incl. servicing 133.515 15.3 110.930 +22,585.8 +20.4 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 128.639 14.7 106.319 +22,319.8 +21.0 also, euronotes USD USD 4.877 0.6 4.611 +265.9 +5.8 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ----------- ---------- ------ Municipals USD KZT 6.060 0.7 5.730 +330.5 +5.8 incl. face value USD KZT 5.425 0.6 5.129 +295.8 +5.8 incl. servicing USD KZT 0.636 0.1 0.601 +34.7 +5.8 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ----------- ---------- ------ incl. Astana akimat USD KZT 2.007 0.2 1.898 +109.5 +5.8 also, face value USD KZT 1.881 0.2 1.778 +102.6 +5.8 also, servicing USD KZT 0.127 0.01 0.120 +6.9 +5.8 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ----------- ---------- ------ incl. Atyrau region USD KZT 4.053 0.5 3.832 +221.0 +5.8 akimat also, face value USD KZT 3.544 0.4 3.351 +193.3 +5.8 also, servicing USD KZT 0.509 0.1 0.481 +27.8 +5.8 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ----------- ---------- ------ TOTAL 872.487 100.0 763.034 +109,453.8 +14.3 incl. face value 738.336 84.6 651.503 +86,833.4 +13.3 incl. servicing 134.151 15.4 111.531 +22,620.4 +20.3 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ----------- ---------- ------ OR ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ----------- ---------- ------ incl. internal debt KZT KZT 823.777 94.4 716.980 +106,797.4 +14.9 also, face value KZT KZT 694.502 79.6 610.060 +84,442.9 +13.8 also, servicing KZT KZT 129.274 14.8 106.920 +22,354.5 +20.9 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ----------- ---------- ------ incl. external debt USD USD 48.711 5.6 46.054 +2,656.4 +5.8 also, face value USD USD 43.834 5.0 41.444 +2,390.5 +5.8 also, servicing USD USD 4.877 0.6 4.611 +265.9 +5.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. Equivalents as of August 31, 06 were calculated at the rate of KZT125.24 per dollar, as of July 31, 06 - at KZT118.41. Therefore, the data shown in the table reflect the dynamics due to exchange rate fluctuations besides all other factors. Similar figures in U.S. dollars are given in the table as follows. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt ---------------------------- Change as of for the *Currency of August 31, 06 as of period ------------- ---------------- July 31, 06 ---------------- Issuer issue service m. USD stake, % m. USD th. USD % ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ----------- ---------- ----- National Bank KZT KZT 2,774.9 39.8 2,496.2 +278,768.0 +11.2 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ----------- ---------- ----- Ministry of Finance 4,143.2 59.5 3,899.4 +243,759.2 +6.3 incl. face value 3,077.1 44.2 2,962.6 +114,509.5 +3.9 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 2,727.1 39.1 2,612.6 +114,509.5 +4.4 also, euronotes USD USD 350.0 5.0 350.0 0 0.0 incl. servicing 1,066.1 15.3 936.8 +129,249.7 +13.8 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 1,027.1 14.7 897.9 +129,249.7 +14.4 also, euronotes USD USD 38.9 0.6 38.9 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ----------- ---------- ----- Municipals USD KZT 48.4 0.7 48.4 0 0 incl. face value USD KZT 43.3 0.6 43.3 0 0 incl. servicing USD KZT 5.1 0.1 5.1 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ----------- ---------- ----- incl. Astana USD KZT 16.0 0.2 16.0 0 0 akimat also, face value USD KZT 15.0 0.2 15.0 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 1.011 0.01 1.011 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ----------- ---------- ----- incl. Atyrau USD KZT 32.4 0.5 32.4 0 0 region akimat also, face value USD KZT 28.3 0.4 28.3 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 4.1 0.1 4.1 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ----------- ---------- ----- TOTAL 6,966.5 100.0 6,444.0 +522,527.2 +8.1 incl. face value 5,895.4 84.6 5,502.1 +393,277.5 +7.1 incl. servicing 1,071.2 15.4 941.9 +129,249.7 +13.7 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ----------- ---------- ----- OR ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ----------- ---------- ----- incl. internal debt KZT KZT 6,577.6 94.4 6,055.1 +522,527.2 +8.6 also, face value KZT KZT 5,545.4 79.6 5,152.1 +393,277.5 +7.6 also, servicing KZT KZT 1,032.2 14.8 903.0 +129,249.7 +14.3 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ----------- ---------- ----- incl. external debt USD USD 388.9 5.6 388.9 0 0.0 also, face value USD USD 350.0 5.0 350.0 0 0 also, servicing USD USD 38.9 0.6 38.9 0 0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. According to the data of IRBIS, issue volume of the National Bank's GS in August by amounts of offering was KZT346,551.1 m. (in July - KZT294,787.8 m.). At that, the issuer paid off his liabilities for a total sum of KZT295,570.4 (KZT400,991.2 m.).August net-borrowing balance of the National Bank in GS market was positive KZT50,980.8 m. Corresponding index in July made negative KZT106,203.4 m. ("minus" sign in balance indicator means that the mentioned sum was withdrawn from issuer's budget and remained in investors' possession, "plus" sign - issuer borrowed more than redeemed). In August the Ministry of Finance attracted by offering of its bonds MEKKAM KZT36,665.7 m. (in July no resulted offerings were made) The issuer paid face value of bonds and coupons for a total sum of KZT4,617.1 m. (in July - KZT3,279.0 m.).August net-borrowing balance of the Ministry of Finance is estimated by IRBIS at positive KZT32,048.6 m. (in July - positive KZT3,279.0 m.). Total August net-borrowing balance of all Kazakhstan GS issuers (including municipals) is estimated by IRBIS at positive KZT83,029.4 m. Similar indicator of July -negative KZT109,482.4 m. The given data lets to stay that the last months of summer had radically differed on primary market of GS than several previous. It is obvious that National Bank again became actively use its bonds for sterilization of too much tenge's liquidity on financial market of Kazakhstan. On its behavior in this part did not influence neither significant positive net-borrowing balance of Ministry of finance, nor organized in August ability to sterilize market through selling dollars on KASE. All that together with influence of other factors lead to pressure of monetary base by the totals of August by 5.5% and positively influenced on the level of inflation in the country IRBIS agency draws the attention of its subscribers and mass media to the fact that figures presented above are not official data since it was obtained through analyzing information on primary GS market using databases of the agency. As regards domestic bonds, agency's databases have been checked according to the data presented to IRBIS by Central securities depository JSC (Almaty). [2006-09-06]