ANALYSIS: In June of 2006 profitability of corporate bonds on KASE kept growing, while the market was less active

/IRBIS, Assel Omarova, Andrey Tsalyuk, July 11, 06/ - In June of 2006 on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) 288 deals were made in corporate bonds in all sectors of the market (excluding repo-transactions sector) for a total of KZT37,771.2 m. or $315.8 m. at the current rate effective on deals making dates. The stated amount is 73.7% of monthly turnover of corporate security market (in May of 2006 - 65.6%) and 2.9% from the exchange's whole monthly turnover (3.4%). Bonds of 36 titles were characterized with positive changes of weighted average dirty prices from the number of 69 bonds titles, involved in deals in June, with negative changes - 24. There was nothing to compare with prices of nine new debt instruments. Growth leaders were (at 11.0%) VTZLb1, fall leaders (at 7.8%) - BTASb5. Eight securities showed the growth of dirty day weighted average prices at 5% and more, whereas just six bonds were marked with meaningful prices fall. Dynamics of weighted average bonds net prices are characterized with following statistics. In analyzed month out of 68 bonds titles, involved in deals on secondary market, liabilities of 26 titles were traded lower than face value, with reward - 42 titles. The most repurchased seemed to be BTASb3 (their weighted average net price this month was 114.77% from the face value). The most resold seemed to be ASFIb9 (86.33%). In May deals in bonds of 72 titles were made on secondary market, securities of 27 titles were traded with discount, with reward - 45. The most repurchased seemed to be KZIKb2 (127.75%), resold - also ASFIb9 (85.92%). Weighted average net price of corporate bonds on secondary market in June was 99.37%, in May - 102.47%. In June bonds profitability to maturity on concluded deals increased among 34 corporate bonds, decreased among 26. The main reason of growth of bonds profitability to maturity for buyers, which is reflected adequately by KASE_BY indicator (the table below), IRBIS specialists consider to be growing inflation rate in year expression. Value of this indicator, calculated from month consuming prices indexes, which are published by Statistic agency of Republic of Kazakhstan, by the end of May was the highest within last several years and reached 9.265%. By the end of analyzed month, this indicator decreased to 9.157%. Seeing that, coupon interest size of most corporate bonds, traded on KASE, directly correlated with inflation indicator in year expression, liabilities profitability is growing even at unchanged net prices. The table, reflecting exchange market of corporate bonds on KASE in June of 2006, is given bellow. Change of lists of corporate bonds, traded on KASE, in June of 2006 ----------------------------------------- Bonds: Issuers: Category of ------------- ------------- admission number trend number trend ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 167 +5 53 -1 B 12 +1 11 +1 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 179 +6 64 0 ----------------------------------------- Notes: "A" - official "A" listing category; "B" - official "B" listing category; "A+B" - official list; by the end of the month, change for the month. Statistical characteristics of corporate bond market on KASE in June of 2006 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Month: -------------------- Trend June May June 2006 to Indicator 2006 2006 May 2006 ---------------------------------------- --------- --------- ------------ Trade volume, th. USD 315,760.7 347,373.6 -9.1% Trade volume, m. KZT 37,771.2 42,523.6 -11.2% incl. on offerings, th. USD 14,893.6 98.4 +151.4 times incl. on offerings, m. KZT 1,797.5 12.1 +148.2 times incl. secondary market deals, th. USD 300,867.1 347,275.3 -13.4% incl. secondary market deals, m. KZT 35,973.7 42,511.5 -15.4% Number of deals 288 342 -15.8% incl. at offerings 6 1 +6.0 times incl. on secondary market 282 341 -17.3% Number of instruments involved in deals 69 73 -5.5% Stake of nego deals (number), % 12.5 9.9 +2.6 pp Stake of nego deals (volume), % 7.3 11.5 -4.2 pp Pension assets participation, % gross 22.7 33.2 -10.5 pp Number of exchange's members, made deals 32 39 -17.9% Market concentration, %* 65.7 52.0 +13.7 pp ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- * percentage from total bond turnover, which falls to the stake of most tradable securities (their number is 5% from total number of names of bonds, included in KASE's trade lists, is shown) Main indicators of KASE's corporate bond market in June of 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------- Market. value of Index Volume of Volume of debt, KASE_BY, Index Index deals, deals, Date USD m. % APR KASE_BP KASE_BC th. USD m. KZT -------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- 31.05.06 10,580.6 7.41 192.71 129.53 2,200.57 266.8 01.06.06 10,572.7 7.48 192.66 129.45 25,767.3 3,124.5 02.06.06 10,580.0 7.50 192.99 129.34 9,489.4 1,149.3 05.06.06 10,625.5 7.48 192.86 129.50 8,485.1 1,018.2 06.06.06 10,627.8 7.47 193.03 129.56 3,201.7 384.2 07.06.06 10,635.7 7.48 193.10 129.56 27,329.2 3,274.6 08.06.06 10,635.3 7.49 192.93 129.46 26,339.5 3,156.3 09.06.06 10,623.2 7.50 192.92 129.43 17,791.5 2,138.2 12.06.06 10,590.8 7.48 193.29 129.61 30,673.1 3,689.7 13.06.06 10,630.1 7.47 193.47 129.73 447.6 53.4 14.06.06 10,859.6 7.49 193.37 129.63 3,586.7 427.9 15.06.06 10,805.1 7.50 193.29 129.53 7,288.1 879.2 16.06.06 10,855.2 7.49 193.53 129.68 687.6 82.5 19.06.06 10,942.8 7.50 193.62 129.64 14,048.4 1,674.3 20.06.06 10,986.3 7.52 193.54 129.56 9,098.4 1,076.0 21.06.06 10,964.9 7.53 193.51 129.53 3,781.3 448.7 22.06.06 10,963.7 7.54 193.51 129.48 7,685.6 911.8 23.06.06 10,922.7 7.52 193.67 129.57 16,719.1 2,001.3 26.06.06 10,924.4 7.54 193.66 129.47 8,922.0 1,068.0 27.06.06 10,931.8 7.56 193.63 129.38 9,155.9 1,095.2 28.06.06 11,014.1 7.57 193.65 129.38 15,779.5 1,881.1 29.06.06 12,081.4 7.62 193.44 129.17 33,314.34 3,954.1 30.06.06 12,089.6 7.66 193.69 129.14 36,169.2 4,282.8 -------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- Trend +1,509.0 +0.25 +0.98 -0.39 +14.3% +3.37% +0.51% -0.30% -------------------------------------------------------------------- Summary data by the results of bond trades on KASE in June of 2006 (purchase and sale, including primary offerings) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Volume of deals: Code Brief ------------------ Num- Market Price of name of th. m. ber of share, change, security Issuer USD KZT deals % % -------- ---------------------------- --------- -------- ------ ------ ------- ASFIb9 Astana-Finance JSC 53,237.2 6,352.2 11 16.86 +1.85 FRMPb1 Fund of small enterprise development JSC 39,593.2 4,735.6 12 12.54 X EUBNb3 Eurasian bank JSC 36,770.4 4,407.9 9 11.65 X TEBNb7 Temirbank JSC 20,632.9 2,460.3 9 6.53 X PRKRb2 Product contract corporation JSC 16,944.5 2,048.6 8 5.37 +1.90 CCBNb7 Bank CenterCredit JSC 13,794.1 1,657.9 12 4.37 +5.96 KZIKb14 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 10,797.0 1,309.2 3 3.42 X NRBNb5 Nurbank JSC 8,650.6 1,041.8 3 2.74 +2.01 ROSAb2 ROSA JSC 8,641.1 1,030.1 1 2.74 X VITAb5 VITA JSC 7,531.2 894.8 8 2.39 +0.26 VTBNb3 Valut-Transit-Bank JSC 6,394.5 759.6 34 2.03 -3.29 VTBNb4 Valut-Transit-Bank JSC 6,018.7 714.4 2 1.91 -2.59 ASBNb4 Alliance Bank JSC 5,434.5 643.5 1 1.72 +1.05 ASFIb5 Astana-Finance JSC 4,704.4 559.0 7 1.49 +0.78 TSBNb1 Tsesnabank JSC 4,678.3 560.0 1 1.48 -3.34 TEBNb9 Temirbank JSC 4,287.9 512.9 2 1.36 X ASBNb6 Alliance Bank JSC 4,192.4 499.6 5 1.33 X CSBNb4 BANK CASPIAN JSC 4,145.8 494.2 3 1.31 -5.99 TSSMb1 Transstroymost JSC 3,947.1 471.8 9 1.25 +1.55 KKGBb3 Kazkommertsbank JSC 3,890.3 463.6 1 1.23 +1.00 KZALb1 Mining and smelting concern Kazakhaltyn JSC 3,701.1 441.5 2 1.17 +7.11 BTAIb4 Daughter mortgage organization of joint stock company Bank TuranAlem BTA Mortgage JSC 3,534.9 424.0 9 1.12 +1.28 ASBNb3 Alliance Bank JSC 3,493.7 416.3 3 1.11 +1.12 KKAGb2 Kzakhstan Kagazy JSC 3,206.1 380.5 4 1.02 X ATFBb5 ATFBank JSC 2,742.1 327.0 4 0.87 -2.55 ASFIb4 Astana-Finance JSC 2,707.4 323.4 4 0.86 +6.14 GLOTb1 GLOTUR JSC 2,628.0 315.1 5 0.83 +1.49 ASFIb7 Astana-Finance JSC 2,282.3 272.9 10 0.72 +7.33 BTAIb6 Daughter mortgage organization of joint stock company Bank TuranAlem BTA Mortgage JSC 2,131.5 254.7 5 0.68 -5.34 BTASb3 Bank TuranAlem JSC 1,755.7 207.9 4 0.56 +0.68 AKFIb1 Aktobemunay-finance JSC 1,645.4 199.5 1 0.52 X NRBNb2 Nurbank JSC 1,637.5 196.0 2 0.52 +3.13 BTAIb9 Daughter mortgage organization of joint stock company Bank TuranAlem BTA Mortgage JSC 1,538.9 186.6 3 0.49 +2.33 VTBNb1 Valut-Transit-Bank JSC 1,374.7 163.7 6 0.44 +0.82 KASTb1 Holding KAZEXPORTTASTYK 1,372.4 162.5 1 0.43 +0.73 JSC KZNHb2 Kazneftechim JSC 1,305.9 155.8 4 0.41 +2.31 KASSb1 NSCC KazStroyService JSC 1,230.6 147.2 8 0.39 +0.62 ASFIb6 Astana-Finance JSC 1,222.4 146.6 2 0.39 +6.09 TSBNb3 Tsesnabank JSC 1,198.7 143.0 2 0.38 +0.96 VTZLb1 Kazyuvelirprom JSC 1,094.2 129.7 5 0.35 +11.00 BTASb2 Bank TuranAlem JSC 1,067.6 128.9 4 0.34 -0.45 VITAb4 VITA JSC 968.7 117.5 2 0.31 +1.80 RGBRb3 RG BRANDS JSC 939.8 112.0 1 0.30 +3.06 BTASb4 Bank TuranAlem JSC 930.1 111.4 4 0.29 -0.91 KAZIb1 KPACI JSC 832.3 100.0 1 0.26 +2.63 CSBNb6 BANK CASPIAN JSC 814.8 98.8 1 0.26 -2.81 KATRb1 KazAgroTrade+ JSC 560.1 67.2 9 0.18 -1.37 KRZHb1 Karagandy Zharyk JSC 480.9 57.1 4 0.15 +1.94 BTASb1 Bank TuranAlem JSC 477.6 56.9 1 0.15 -7.02 VTBNb2 Valut-Transit-Bank JSC 299.8 35.7 2 0.09 -3.51 CHFMb1 Chimfarm JSC 267.5 31.9 2 0.08 +5.56 ASBNb2 Alliance Bank JSC 256.4 30.3 2 0.08 +3.30 TXBNb3 TEXAKABANK JSC 231.7 27.9 2 0.07 -0.56 ATFBb3 ATFBank JSC 206.4 25.0 1 0.07 -3.95 PDESb1 PAVLODARENERGOSERVICE 188.9 22.5 1 0.06 +1.12 JSC KZIKb3 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 187.5 22.2 1 0.06 +2.41 HSBKb2 Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 182.8 21.9 2 0.06 +0.85 KZIKb4 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 180.8 21.5 3 0.06 -2.98 TXBNb2 TEXAKABANK JSC 167.7 19.9 1 0.05 -2.37 BTASb5 Bank TuranAlem JSC 113.7 13.5 1 0.04 -7.76 HSBKb3 Halyk savings bank JSC 99.7 11.9 1 0.03 -5.05 ALKSb2 ALMATY KUS JSC 60.4 7.3 4 0.02 -4.35 ASBNb1 Alliance Bank JSC 56.0 6.7 6 0.02 -5.20 KKGBb2 Kazkommertsbank JSC 52.8 6.3 1 0.02 -2.10 HSBKb Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC 30.7 3.7 2 0.01 -5.58 CSBNb5 BANK CASPIAN JSC 9.7 1.2 1 0.003 +0.60 CSBNb3 BANK CASPIAN JSC 4.1 0.5 1 0.001 +9.05 UKPFb1 UST-KAMENOGORSK POALTRY FABRIC JSC 1.5 0.2 1 <0.001 -0.67 KZIKb7 Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC 0.9 0.1 1 <0.001 -0.04 -------- ---------------------------- --------- -------- ------ ------ ------- 69 315,760.7 37,771.2 288 100.0 , ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Comments: Securities were sorted in descending order based on the volumes of deals expressed in U.S. dollars. Figure means ordinal number of bond issue. Absence of figure (old coding) means this is the first issue. "X" - change of price is not calculated, as this security got the first estimation on KASE in the analyzed period. [2006-07-11]