ANALYSIS: As of July 1 of 2006 total state debt of Kazakhstan issued as GS along with servicing totaled KZT873.4 bn. or $7,358.3 m.

/IRBIS, Yelena Korpusenko, Andrey Tsalyuk, July 5, 06/ - As of July 1 of 2006 total state debt of Kazakhstan issued as government securities (GS), including municipal bonds, along with the servicing (amount of coupon payments) equaled in current prices to KZT873.4 bn., or $7,358.3 m. at the rate of KZT118.69 per dollar. Specialists of IRBIS made such conclusion after analyzing its databases. While making the analysis the amounts of future payments on MEIKAM were calculated taking into consideration consumer price index registered for the period from April till June of 2006, on MEUJKAM - from July of 2005 till June of 2006. Within June 1 - 30 of 2006 total debt (taking into account the changes in the rate of the National Bank) in tenge equivalent increased by KZT58.8 bn. (+7.22%), in dollar equivalent - by 653.1 m. (+9.74%). Similar indicators of debt change in May of 2006 were +KZT101.7 bn. (+14.02%) or +$963.4 m. (+16.78%). Following table contains detailed information. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt ---------------------------- Change *Curren- as of for the cy of June 30, 06 period ---------- --------------- as of ---------------- ser- stake, May 31, 06 Issuer issue vice bn. KZT % bn. KZT m. KZT % ------------------- ----- ---- ------- ------ ----------- --------- ----- National Bank KZT KZT 400.991 45.9 318.171 +82 820.2 +26.0 ------------------- ----- ---- ------- ------ ----------- --------- ----- Ministry of Finance 466.622 53.4 490.451 -23 828.8 -4.9 incl. face value 353.488 40.5 375.518 -22 029.8 -5.9 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 311.947 35.7 333.000 -21 053.3 -6.3 also, euronotes USD USD 41.542 4.8 42.518 -976.5 -2.3 incl. servicing 113.134 13.0 114.933 -1 799.0 -1.6 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 108.513 12.4 110.203 -1 690.4 -1.5 also, euronotes USD USD 4.621 0.5 4.730 -108.6 -2.3 ------------------- ----- ---- ------- ------ ----------- --------- ----- Municipals USD KZT 5.743 0.7 5.924 -180.3 -3.0 incl. face value USD KZT 5.141 0.6 5.262 -120.8 -2.3 incl. servicing USD KZT 0.602 0.1 0.662 -59.5 -9.0 ------------------- ----- ---- ------- ------ ----------- --------- ----- incl. Astana akimat USD KZT 1.902 0.2 1.992 -90.1 -4.5 also, face value USD KZT 1.782 0.2 1.824 -41.9 -2.3 also, servicing USD KZT 0.120 0.01 0.168 -48.2 -28.6 ------------------- ----- ---- ------- ------ ----------- --------- ----- incl. Atyrau region USD KZT 3.841 0.4 3.931 -90.3 -2.3 akimat also, face value USD KZT 3.359 0.4 3.438 -79.0 -2.3 also, servicing USD KZT 0.482 0.1 0.494 -11.3 -2.3 ------------------- ----- ---- ------- ------ ----------- --------- ----- TOTAL 873.356 100.0 814.545 +58 811.1 +7.2 incl. face value 759.620 87.0 698.951 +60 669.6 +8.7 incl. servicing 113.736 13.0 115.595 -1 858.5 -1.6 ------------------- ----- ---- ------- ------ ----------- --------- ----- OR ------------------- ----- ---- ------- ------ ----------- --------- ----- incl. internal debt KZT KZT 827.193 94.7 767.297 +59 896.3 +7.8 also, face value KZT KZT 718.079 82.2 656.433 +61 646.1 +9.4 also, servicing KZT KZT 109.115 12.5 110.865 -1 749.9 -1.6 ------------------- ----- ---- ------- ------ ----------- --------- ----- incl. external debt USD USD 46.163 5.3 47.248 -1 085.1 -2.3 also, face value USD USD 41.542 4.8 42.518 -976.5 -2.3 also, servicing USD USD 4.621 0.5 4.730 -108.6 -2.3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. Equivalents as of June 30, 06 were calculated at the rate of KZT118.69 per dollar, as of May 31, 06 - at KZT121.48. Therefore, the data shown in the table reflect the dynamics due to exchange rate fluctuations besides all other factors. Similar figures in U.S. dollars are given in the table as follows. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt ---------------------------- Change *Curren- as of for the cy of June 30, 06 period ---------- --------------- as of ----------------- ser- stake, May 31, 06 Issuer issue vice bn. KZT % bn. KZT m. KZT % ------------------- ----- ---- ------- ------ ----------- ---------- ----- National Bank KZT KZT 3,378.5 45.9 2,619.1 +759,352.9 +29.0 ------------------- ----- ---- ------- ------ ----------- ---------- ----- Ministry of Finance 3,931.4 53.4 4,037.3 -105,861.7 -2.6 incl. face value 2,978.2 40.5 3,091.2 -112,944.2 -3.7 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 2,628.2 35.7 2,741.2 -112,944.2 -4.1 also, euronotes USD USD 350.0 4.8 350.0 0 0 incl. servicing 953.2 13.0 946.1 +7,082.5 +0.7 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 914.3 12.4 907.2 +7,082.5 +0.8 also, euronotes USD USD 38.9 0.5 38.9 0 0 ------------------- ----- ---- ------- ------ ----------- ---------- ----- Municipals USD KZT 48.39 0.7 48.76 -373.2 -0.8 incl. face value USD KZT 43.3 0.6 43.3 0 0 incl. servicing USD KZT 5.1 0.1 5.4 -373.2 -6.9 ------------------- ----- ---- ------- ------ ----------- ---------- ----- incl. Astana USD KZT 16.0 0.2 16.4 -373.2 -2.3 akimat also, face value USD KZT 15.0 0.2 15.0 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 1.011 0.01 1.384 -373.2 -27.0 ------------------- ----- ---- ------- ------ ----------- ---------- ----- incl. Atyrau USD KZT 32.4 0.4 32.4 0 0 region akimat also, face value USD KZT 28.3 0.4 28.3 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 4.1 0.1 4.1 -0 0 ------------------- ----- ---- ------- ------ ----------- ---------- ----- TOTAL 7,358.3 100.0 6,705.2 +653,118.0 +9.7 incl. face value 6,400.0 87.0 5,753.6 +646,408.7 +11.2 incl. servicing 958.3 13.0 951.6 +6,709.3 +0.7 ------------------- ----- ---- ------- ------ ----------- ---------- ----- OR ------------------- ----- ---- ------- ------ ----------- ---------- ----- incl. internal debt KZT KZT 6,969.4 94.7 6,316.2 +653,118.0 +10.3 also, face value KZT KZT 6,050.0 82.2 5,403.6 +646,408.7 +12.0 also, servicing KZT KZT 919.3 12.5 912.6 +6,709.3 +0.7 ------------------- ----- ---- ------- ------ ----------- ---------- ----- incl. external debt USD USD 388.9 5.3 388.9 0 0 also, face value USD USD 350.0 4.8 350.0 0 0 also, servicing USD USD 38.9 0.5 38.9 0 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. According to the data of IRBIS, issue volume of the National Bank's GS in June by amounts of offering was KZT491,657.6 m. (in May - KZT317,438.0 m.). At that, the issuer paid off his liabilities to a total sum of KZT410,058.3 (KZT230,524.8 m.).June net-borrowing balance of the National Bank in GS market was positive KZT81,599.3 m. Corresponding index in May made positive KZT86,913.2 m. ("minus" sign in balance indicator means that the mentioned sum was withdrawn from issuer's budget and remained in investors' possession, "plus" sign - issuer borrowed more than redeemed). In June the Ministry of Finance conducted offering of its bonds. The issuer paid face value of bonds and coupons for total sum of KZT22,020.14 m. (in May - KZT6,407.7 m.).June net-borrowing balance of the Ministry of Finance is estimated by IRBIS as negative KZT22,020.4 m. (in May - positive KZT9,169.5 m.). Total June net-borrowing balance of all Kazakhstan GS issuers (including municipals) is estimated by IRBIS as positive KZT59,534.2 m. Similar indicator of May -positive KZT95,966.4 m. The given data testify that Ministry of finance let down National bank as it by unspecified reason refused of borrowing volume, planned for June. As a result, efficiency of market sterilization from "extra" money in analyzed month was lower than in May. From its side National bank did not completely compensate the absence of Ministry of finance on primary market, although its issuer activity notably increased. IRBIS specialists are inclined to explain it with the following factors: inflation rate decreased and volume of dollar purchase by National bank meaningfully fell relative to May on KASE. That is, there was no necessity to grow net borrowing balance up to May level. IRBIS agency draws the attention of its subscribers and mass media to the fact that figures presented above are not official data since it was obtained through analyzing information on primary GS market using databases of the agency. As regards domestic bonds, agency's databases have been checked according to the data presented to IRBIS by Central securities depository JSC (Almaty). [2006-07-05]