ANALYSIS: As of June 1 of 2006 total state debt of Kazakhstan issued as GS along with servicing totaled KZT814.5 bn. or $6,705.2 m.

/IRBIS, Yelena Korpusenko, Andrey Tsalyuk, June 5, 06/ - As of June 1 of 2006 total state debt of Kazakhstan issued as government securities (GS), including municipal bonds, along with the servicing (amount of coupon payments) equaled in current prices to KZT814.5 bn., or $6.705.2 m. at the rate of KZT121.48 per dollar. Specialists of IRBIS made such conclusion after analyzing its databases. While making the analysis the amounts of future payments on MEIKAM were calculated taking into consideration consumer price index registered for the period from March till May of 2006, on MEUJKAM - from June of 2005 till May of 2006. Within May 1 - 31 of 2006 total debt (taking into account the changes in the rate of the National Bank) increased by KZT100.1 bn. (+14.02%), in dollar equivalent - by 963.4 m. (+16.78%). Similar indicators of debt change in April of 2006 were +KZT77.7 bn. (+12.21%) or +$785.2 m. (+15.84%). Following table contains detailed information. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt ---------------------------- Change as of for the *Currency of May 31, 06 as of period ------------- ---------------- Apr. 30, 06 ----------------- Issuer issue serviсe bn. KZT stake, % bn. KZT m. KZT % ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ----------- ---------- ------ National Bank KZT KZT 318.171 39.1 230.525 +87,646.2 +38.0 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ----------- ---------- ------ Ministry of Finance 490.451 60.2 477.688 +12,763.2 +2.7 incl. face value 375.518 46.1 363.283 +12,234.5 +3.4 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 333.000 40.9 319.736 +13,263.5 +4.15 also, euronotes USD USD 42.518 5.2 43.547 -1,029.0 -2.4 incl. servicing 114.933 14.1 114.404 +528.7 +0.5 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 110.203 13.5 107.137 +3,065.5 +2.9 also, euronotes USD USD 4.730 0.6 7.267 -2,536.8 -34.9 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ----------- ---------- ------ Municipals USD KZT 5.924 0.7 6.186 -262.2 -4.2 incl. face value USD KZT 5.262 0.6 5.389 -127.3 -2.4 incl. servicing USD KZT 0.662 0.1 0.797 -134.8 -16.9 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ----------- ---------- ------ incl. Astana akimat USD KZT 1.992 0.2 2.041 -48.2 -2.4 also, face value USD KZT 1.824 0.2 1.868 -44.1 -2.4 also, servicing USD KZT 0.168 0.02 0.172 -4.1 -2.4 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ----------- ---------- ------ incl. Atyrau region USD KZT 3.931 0.5 4.145 -214.0 -5.2 akimat also, face value USD KZT 3.438 0.4 3.521 -83.2 -2.4 also, servicing USD KZT 0.494 0.1 0.624 -130.8 -20.9 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ----------- ---------- ------ TOTAL 814.545 100.0 714.398 +100,147.2 +14.02 incl. face value 698.951 85.8 599.197 +99,753.3 +16.6 incl. servicing 115.595 14.2 115.201 +393.9 +0.3 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ----------- ---------- ------ OR ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ----------- ---------- ------ incl. internal debt KZT KZT 767.297 94.2 663.584 +103,713.0 +15.6 also, face value KZT KZT 656.433 80.6 555.650 +100,782.3 +18.1 also, servicing KZT KZT 110.865 13.6 107.934 +2,930.7 +2.7 ------------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ----------- ---------- ------ incl. external debt USD USD 47.248 5.8 50.814 -3,565.8 -7.0 also, face value USD USD 42.518 5.2 43.547 -1,029.0 -2.4 also, servicing USD USD 4.730 0.6 7.267 -2,536.8 -34.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. Equivalents as of May 31, 06 were calculated at the rate of KZT121.48 per dollar, as of April 30 , 06 - at KZT124.42. Therefore, the data shown in the table reflect the dynamics due to exchange rate fluctuations besides all other factors. Similar figures in U.S. dollars are given in the table as follows. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt ---------------------------- Change as of for the *Currency of May 31, 06 as of period ------------- ------------------ Apr., 06 ----------------- Issuer issue serviсe m. USD stake, % m. USD th. USD % ------------------- ----- ------- -------- --------- --------- ---------- ------ National Bank KZT KZT 2,619.1 39.1 1,852.8 +766,326.9 +41.4 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- --------- --------- ---------- ------ Ministry of Finance 4,037.3 60.2 3,839.3 +197,981.7 +5.2 incl. face value 3,091.2 46.1 2,919.8 +171,376.0 +5.9 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 2,741.2 40.9 2,569.8 +171,376.0 +6.7 also, euronotes USD USD 350.0 5.2 350.0 0 0 incl. servicing 946.1 14.1 919.5 +26,605.7 +2.9 also, domestic GS KZT, USD KZT 907.2 13.5 861.1 +46,074.5 +5.4 also, euronotes USD USD 38.9 0.6 58.4 -19,468.8 -33.3 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- --------- --------- ---------- ------ Municipals USD KZT 48.76 0.7 49.72 -955.1 -1.92 incl. face value USD KZT 43.3 0.6 43.3 0 0 incl. servicing USD KZT 5.4 0.1 6.4 -955.1 -14.9 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- --------- --------- ---------- ------ incl. Astana USD KZT 16.4 0.2 16.4 0 0 akimat also, face value USD KZT 15.0 0.2 15.0 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 1.384 0.02 1.384 0 0 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- --------- --------- ---------- ------ incl. Atyrau USD KZT 32.4 0.5 33.3 -955.1 -2.9 region akimat also, face value USD KZT 28.3 0.4 28.3 0 0 also, servicing USD KZT 4.1 0.1 5.0 -955.1 -19.0 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- --------- --------- ---------- ------ TOTAL 6,705.2 100.0 5,741.8 +963,353.5 +16.78 incl. face value 5,753.6 85.8 4,815.9 +937,702.9 +19.5 incl. servicing 951.6 14.2 925.9 +25,650.6 +2.8 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- --------- --------- ---------- ------ OR ------------------- ----- ------- -------- --------- --------- ---------- ------ incl. internal debt KZT KZT 6,316.2 94.2 5,333.4 +982,822.3 +18.4 also, face value KZT KZT 5,403.6 80.6 4,465.9 +937,702.9 +21.0 also, servicing KZT KZT 912.6 13.6 867.5 +45,119.4 +5.2 ------------------- ----- ------- -------- --------- --------- ---------- ------ incl. external debt USD USD 388.9 5.8 408.4 -19,468.8 -4.8 also, face value USD USD 350.0 5.2 350.0 0 0 also, servicing USD USD 38.9 0.6 58.4 -19,468.8 -33.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. According to the data of IRBIS, issue volume of the National Bank's GS in May by amounts of offering was KZT317,438.0 m. (in April - KZT230.061.4 m.). At that, the issuer paid off his liabilities to a total sum of KZT230,524.8 (KZT183,149.8 m.).May's net-borrowing balance of the National Bank in GS market was positive KZT86,913.2 m. Corresponding index in April made positive KZT46,911.6 m. ("minus" sign in balance indicator means that the mentioned sum was withdrawn from issuer's budget and remained in investors' possession, "plus" sign - issuer borrowed more than redeemed). In May the Ministry of Finance borrowed KZT15,577.2 m. due to MEKAM offering (in April - KZT22,946.1 m.) and paid face value of bonds and coupons to total sum of KZT6,407.7 m. (KZT15,308.6 m.).May's net- borrowing balance of the Ministry of Finance is estimated by IRBIS as positive KZT9,169.5 m. (in April - positive KZT7,637.5 m.). Total May's net-borrowing balance of all Kazakhstan GS issuers (including municipals) is estimated by IRBIS as positive KZT95,966.4 m. Similar indicator of April -positive KZT54,514.9 m. Given data testify of that under influence of growing inflation risks and strong pressure of USD dollar in domestic market the National Bank in May significantly actualized itself in the aspect of using its bonds for sterilization of excessive tenge liquidity. For analyzed month the announced volume of one offering of notes grew from 60 up to 100 bn. Besides, their issuer came to growing of yield of liabilities increasing their investment attractiveness. In May the Ministry of Finance contributed the share in struggling with inflation. МЕКАМ offering became held more often. The volume of borrowings of the Ministry of Finance is growing up. IRBIS agency draws the attention of its subscribers and mass media to the fact that figures presented above are not official data since it was obtained through analyzing information on primary GS market using databases of the agency. As regards domestic bonds, agency's databases have been checked according to the data presented to IRBIS by Central securities depository JSC (Almaty). [2006-06-05]