SURVEY - Dollar rates in Kazakhstan - dealers' prognosis

/IRBIS, November 26, 04/ - Information below is translated abstract of REUTER's news. Dollar rate against tenge for the end of 2004 will be 128.50-130.00, participants of currency market of Kazakhstan forecast, interrogated by Reuter on Friday. In the first quarter of 2005, according to their prognosis, rate may fluctuate in limits of KZT125.0-131.0 per dollar. On trades on Friday average weighted rate of tenge against dollar increased up to 130.0 from 130.05 the day before. Dealers consider, that situation in many respects will depend upon policy of National bank, which is the main buyer of American currency. "We see that National bank does not want to let go below KZT130.00 per $1. It fixed and just keeps", - said dealer of Halyk bank. In survey prognoses are given, made by representatives of five banks. PROGNOSIS OF TENGE AGAINST DOLLAR FOR THE PERIOD END ------------------------------------------------------------------- I quarter 2004 of 2005 November 2004 -------------- -------------- average rate min max min max -------------------- ------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ TuranAlem 130.00 129.50 130.00 127.00 130.50 Halyk bank 130.00 129.50 130.00 129.00 131.00 Citybank Kazakhstan 129.85 129.50 130.00 125.00 130.00 CenterCredit 130.00 128.00 129.50 126.00 129.00 Alfa-bank Kazakhstan 130.00 128.50 129.50 125.00 127.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Below opinions of dealers, participated in survey are given. CITYBANK KAZAKHSTAN "In the whole nothing change at Kazakhstan market. Regarding external market, US dollar is approaching minimal level to the middle of 1995. Certainly, market did not come to these levels, but, nevertheless, this will happen - maybe, not to the end of the year, but during nearest three months." TURANALEM "We expect that till the end of November National bank will keep its bid at the level of KZT130 per $1. Most likely that in some moments in December it will take its bid away, and at the end of the year demand from clients will appear, and we are waiting, that dollar will grow a little." CENTERCREDIT "Everything will depend upon National bank." HALYK BANK "Changes in legislation may affect situation at currency market. The essence is to decrease coefficient of currency positions." ALFA-BANK KAZAKHSTAN "At the end of the first quarter huge dollar supply is expected. In January there is usually silence, in February, in principle, also (but situation ma be balanced), and in March - always huge. Besides all other factors season factor will be added: corporate taxes, submission of declarations and so on". [2004-11-26]