QUESTIONING - Forecast of bonds' yield in Kazakhstan

/REUTERS, Almaty, Oljas Auezov, August 8, 03/ - Traders in Kazakhstan expect some growth and further stabilization of yield of the National Bank's notes and bonds of the Ministry of finance within the nearest six months and point to direct dependence of Kazakhstan eurobonds' quotations on prices of the US government bonds. According to the data of questioning of Reuters, which was made on Thursday, most questioned traders of largest banks believe that yield of government securities will be growing due to decrease of the volume of exported proceeds and the started strengthening of dollar's rate relative to tenge. "By the end of the year yield of government securities will grow without fail because the rate of tenge to dollar will fall", - trader of bank TuranAlem thinks. "Yield of bonds of the Ministry of finance and notes (of the National Bank) can not decrease anymore", - trader of Kazkommertsbank agrees with him. Within the first seven months of 2003 tenge's rate was almost constantly strengthening in presence of high volumes of exported proceeds. National Bank of Kazakhstan was buying currency in big volumes, and banks faced the problem concerning lending big sums in tenge that resulted in falling of yield of all government securities, which were nominated in the National currency. However in the beginning of August dollar started fluent strengthening that gave traders reason for optimism after the long hunger. "Rate (of dollar to tenge) is growing, proceeds fall, no sellers (of dollar) are observed at the market", - trader of Kazkommertsbank comments on the situation. At the same time, most traders are not sure that growth of dollar's rate will cause increasing of prices of sovereign and corporate eurobonds. "Corporate and government eurobonds will go after US Treasuries,.. the market starts reacting adequately, supporting certain spreads", - said Kazkommertsbank's trader. "Spreads (of Kazakhstan eurobonds to US Treasuries) will not change", - trader of bank CenterCredit supported him. Below are forecasts of yield on various instruments (for National Bank's notes and bonds of the Ministry of finance - weighted average yield at forthcoming auctions, for corporate securities - average index between demand and offer, as percentage per annum, by the end of the period - month, three months and half-year): --------------------------------------------------- in 1 month 3 months 6 months ----------------- ---------- --------- --------- Semiannual (182/189 days) NBK's notes (yield at the last auction on August 7 - 5.09% APR) ABN AMRO Bank 5.00-5.15 5.00-5.15 5.00-5.15 ATFBank 5.30 - - Kazkommertsbank 5.40-5.50 5.40-5.50 5.40-5.50 Bank TuranAlem 5.00 5.20 5.20 Bank CenterCredit 5.20-5.30 5.20-5.30 5.20-5.30 ----------------- ---------- --------- --------- Two-year MEOKAM (GTB) (yield at the last auction on July 14 - 5.98% APR) ABN AMRO Bank 6.00 5.70 5.70 ATFBank 6.20 - - Kazkommertsbank 6.00 6.00 6.00 Bank TuranAlem 6.00 6.20 6.20 Bank CenterCredit 6.00 6.00 6.00 ----------------- ---------- --------- --------- Three-year MEOKAM (GTB) (yield at the last auction on August 4 - 6.00% APR) ABN AMRO Bank 6.00-6.10 5.80 5.80 ATFBank 6.20 - - Kazkommertsbank 6.00 6.00 6.00 Bank TuranAlem 6.00 6.30 6.40 Bank CenterCredit 6.00 6.50 6.50 ----------------- ---------- --------- --------- Eurobonds of Kazakhstan with maturity in 2007 ATFBank 4.10 - - Kazkommertsbank 3.80 3.80 3.80 Bank TuranAlem 3.90 3.90 3.90 Bank CenterCredit 4.00-4.20 3.75-4.00 3.75-4.00 ----------------- ---------- --------- --------- Eurobonds of Kazkommerts International B.V. - 2007 ATFBank 7.90 - - Bank TuranAlem 7.40 7.20 7.00 Bank CenterCredit 8.00 - - ----------------- ---------- --------- --------- Eurobonds of TuranAlem Finance B.V. - 2007 ATFBank 8.40 - - Bank TuranAlem 7.60 7.40 6.80 Bank CenterCredit 8.00 - - --------------------------------------------------- [2003-08-08]