U.S. dollar market of Kazakhstan: day results

/IRBIS, October 17, 02/ - Following is the table of major indicators of Kazakhstan market for U.S. dollar (more than 99% of country's all currency market). Trends are shown relative to corresponding figures of previous day. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Trades in U.S. dollars at Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Instrument USD TOD USD TOD USD TOM USD SPOT Session Main Additional. Evening Evening Time of trades (AST) 10:15a-11:00a 11:30a-3:30p 2:00p-6:00p 2:00p-6:00p Rate (KZT/USD) 154.20(+0.02) 154.16(-0.01) - - Volume of session (m) 1.705(-18.550) 8.050(+0.250) 0 0 Bid 154.20(+0.02) 154.15(-0.01) - - Offer 154.21(+0.02) 154.17(-0.01) - - Number of participants 17(+2) 14(-2) 0(-3) - ---------------------- -------------- ------------- ----------- ------------- Indicative U.S. dollar quotations in over-the-counter market in information system REUTERS at closing of KASE sessions (disregarding settlement dates) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bid 154.15(+0.01) 154.10(-0.05) 154.14(+0.01) Offer 154.23(+0.05) 154.15(-0.05) 154.19(+0.01) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Notes: weighted average rate is given for main and evening sessions, for additional - closing rate; best ask and offer prices at closing of the trades are shown as the Exchange's quotations. Events, which were today at US dollar market of Kazakhstan, are evidence of the fact that the market is close to its minimum. Money traders, which were questioned today by REUTERS, say about reaching by the market of "bottom" and possible growth of dollar rate the next week. A typical peculiarity was absence today of the National Bank at stock exchange's trades in currency, which during rather long period of time upheld dollar from below. Today there was not such the necessity for the existing demand from commercial banks and their clients was enough for rather stable rate of USD due to significant decrease of its sale volume. In the first half of the day dollar behaved not the way IRBIS analysts had assumed. According to dealers' information, in the morning one of banks purchased large volumes of dollars out of stock exchange, and as the result of that volume of KASE morning session was low, exporters moved to "interbank", and decrease of offer at KASE allowed some sellers to raise the market. However the day session justified IRBIS forecasts and insignificant potential of dollar towards strengthening. Most likely, in the afternoon all events occurred at the stock exchange, where USD sellers expected the National Bank's support. But it was absent, and during the active phase dollar lost three points. At the "interbank" the day closed with minimal growth. The evident market stabilization in the nearest future is explained by decrease of dollar offer volume (though, it's not excepted that the main turnover was today out of KASE), closing of the day with the growth relative to Wednesday, and also ability of STB to uphold the market from below without National Bank's support. The further gradual tenge strengthening (at any case on Friday) is explained by significant degree of demand monopolization (more than 40% of dollars, which were sold at the stock exchange, were purchased by one bank) and high for latest time need of STB in short money. The latter thing was felt at repo market, where the amount of money attracting by banks increased two times as much relative to Wednesday, National Bank does not "intercepts" pension funds' money, and this all caused growth of indicator TONIA to 5.63% APR. Taking into account all mentioned above, IRBIS analysts expect insignificant decrease of weighted average USD rate at the morning KASE session on Friday relative to Thursday, nonetheless insignificant reverse movement of the market is possible too. [2002-10-17]