/IRBIS, June 25, 01/ - Agency IRBIS has made the first attempt to compare
the effectiveness of the activities of Accumulative Pension Funds (APF) of
Kazakhstan and the companies managing their assets (PAMC) based on the
results of the analysis of the Conditional Pension Unit (CPU) dynamics
based on the results of 2000, from January 1, 2000 through June 1, 2001
and in May 2001.
As it has been informed earlier, the values of CPU were presented to the
agency IRBIS by the Accumulative Pension Funds Regulatory Committee of
the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of Kazakhstan (Committee). The
data has been published by IRBIS earlier. When compiling the resulting
table, shown below, the IRBIS has also used the data of the National
Securities Commission of Kazakhstan (NSC) on the coefficients of real and
nominal incomes of APF calculated for May 2000 - May 2001, as well as
data of NSC on the proportion of each APF assets as of June 1, 2001.
The value of the Increment of CPU Per Day of the Period (IPDP) was used
as a basis for compiling the next table, which is expressed in terms of tenge.
Actually, this figure reflects average growth rate of CPU during the period. It
is a quotient obtained by dividing the difference of CPU value at the
beginning and end of the period by the number of days in the period. Based
on this figure each fund was assigned a position during a certain period in
the order of descending IPDP. In this table the data was sorted in
descending order of IPDP for the longest period - 2000 - 2001, namely, from
January 1, 00 through June 1, 01. In the opinions of IRBIS analysts, such
approach was the most correct one. Also, by sorting the data this way, the
dynamics of each fund can be traced separately for the year 2000, for the
first 5 months of 2001 and for the last month.
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In 5 months In May
For 2000 For 2000-2001 of 2001 2001 Propor-
Brief ------------ ------------- ------------ ------------ tion
title in the Date of
of the IPDP, Posi- IPDP, Posi- IPDP, Posi- IPDP, Posi- sys- first
fund KZT tion KZT tion KZT tion KZT tion К3 К2 tem, % deposit
------- ------ ----- ------- ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- ---- ----- ------- --------
Umit 0.1362 1 0.1278 1 0.1085 2 0.0740 11 7.73 18.18 8.7 13.03.98
HPF 0.0977 4 0.0992 2 0.1034 3 0.1901 1 6.89 17.26 1.5 22.03.98
Kaz-mys 0.1005 2 0.0986 3 0.0948 6 0.0894 4 6.00 16.29 3.8 19.04.98
HBK 0.0932 5 0.0952 4 0.1006 4 0.0762 8 6.14 16.43 20.6 24.02.98
NGD 0.0875 8 0.0949 5 0.1133 1 0.0750 9 NA NA 2.1 07.06.98
VTF 0.0981 3 0.0943 6 0.0857 9 0.1196 2 6.65 17.00 1.9 20.03.98
Ular 0.0921 6 0.0910 7 0.0889 7 0.0833 7 5.34 15.56 8.1 20.04.98
Kaz-n 0.0875 9 0.0907 8 0.0991 5 0.0862 5 6.56 16.90 2.5 28.04.98
Kunaev 0.0911 7 0.0893 9 0.0857 8 0.0937 3 6.06 16.35 0.3 24.03.98
Kurmet 0.0688 11 0.0733 10 0.0846 10 0.0666 12 5.63 15.88 3.3 01.01.99
SAPF 0.0746 10 0.0726 11 0.0682 11 0.0744 10 4.50 14.64 34.9 15.01.98
AAKMG 0.0594 12 0.0611 12 0.0657 12 0.0839 6 4.35 14.47 6.2 03.03.99
SENIM 0.0499 13 0.0491 13 0.0473 13 0.0558 13 5.59 15.83 4.9 20.07.99
Korgau 0.0376 14 0.0403 14 0.0472 14 0.0406 14 NA NA 0.9 01.12.99
PMK 0.0086 15 NA NA 0.1 07.04.01
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For simplicity, following abbreviations have been used in the table: Umit - APF
Umit CJSC; VTF - PAPF Valut-tranzit fund CJSC; Kunaev - PAPFOT after Kunaev
CJSC; HPF - OAPF Halyk Pension Fund CJSC; Kaz-n - PAPF Kazakhstan CJSC; HBK -
APF Halyk Bank of Kazakhstan; Kaz-mys - APF Kazakhmys CJSC; Ular - OAPF Ular
CJSC; NGD - PAPF NefteGas-Dem; Kurmet - POAPF Kurmet; AAKMG - APF ABN AMRO -
KaspiiMunaiGas CJSC; SENIM - OAPF SENIM CJSC; Korgau - APF Korgau CJSC; PMK -
KAPF Philip Morris Kazakhstan CJSC; SAPF - State Accumulative Pension Fund
CJSC; K3 - coefficient of real income on assets; K2 - coefficient of nominal
income of the fund; NA - (not available) data not presented; "-" - no data on
the coefficients of the assets of PAPF NefteGas-Dem CJSC and APF Korgau CJSC
because during the period being analyzed the assets of these funds were being
transferred from one PAMC to another, for KAPF Philip Morris Kazakhstan CJSC -
because the fund started working on February 1, 2001 (license was obtained). It
should be also noted that OAPF Federation of Trade Unions of Kazakhstan CJSC
was reorganized on September 29, 2000 by merging with APF Umit CJSC; APF
KaspiiMunaiGas CJSC was reorganized on February 16, 2001 by merging with APF
ABN-AMRO CJSC with subsequent change in the title of the latter into APF ABN
AMRO - KaspiiMunaiGas CJSC.
When analyzing the table, it should be kept in mind, that the funds, who have
started working prior to the currency regulatory regime in Kazakhstan (till
early April 1999), have certain advantages over other funds, since they have
received an income from exchange rate difference due to tenge devaluation
due to the measures taken by the government and the NSC to protect the
assets of the depositors from devaluation. It is clear from the table thanks to
a one-time first deposit. Not many funds, who were the leaders in 2000, were
able to maintain the CPU growth rate.
The table illustrates the main pattern observed in the pension assets
management activities under a total decline in the returns of instruments
available to PAMC. In last months traditional leaders of IPDP are losing their
positions, since their portfolios had been formed earlier from more profitable
securities. When these securities mature or get sold on secondary market,
the result is a profit fixing and high value of IPDP, however, it certainly
leads to subsequent sharp decline of this value due to impossibility of
investing the money received this way into high return instruments.
In this context, in the opinions of IRBIS analysts, the funds, whose positions
remained almost unchanged and in the first lines of the list, deserve a
special attention. Such dispositions of these funds indicate that the PAMC of
these companies react (somewhat better than others) to the change in
market situation on time and conduct restructuring of the portfolios of their
APF in order to reach the optimal and stable return on the assets. These are
the following funds:
- OAPF Halyk Pension Fund CJSC (PAMC ABN AMRO Asset
Management);
- APF Kazakhmys CJSC and OAPF Ular CJSC (PAMC JETYSU);
- APF of Halyk Bank of Kazakhstan CJSC (Halyk Bank of Kazakhstan
pension assets management company).
Unfortunately, very solid positions of APF Umit CJSC (PAMC Ak nyiet) were
lost in May 2001 (average monthly IPDP in 2001 = 0.11, in May - only 0.07).
Although, it does not mean that CPU growth rate has been lost for this
company.
The table also illustrates a number of other patterns.
It should be noted that the analysis of IRBIS concerns only the dynamics of
CPU - one of the main indicators of a fund's profitability and not more. The
positions obtained this way can not be used as ratings, since such
assessments should be made based on the analyses of a number of
indicators. As an example, PAPFOT after Kunaev D.A. can be used, whose
IPDP let the company to become the third in the list in May 2001. Also, it has
been said previously, that it had been a single fund, whose assets fell in May
(from KZT424.2m as of May 1, 01 to KZT421.3m as of June 1, 01). As the
Pension Reforms Department of the NSC informed the IRBIS, on April 6,
2001 the license of this fund was suspended by the Committee for one
month, and on May 11, 2001 - for another month. These facts certainly do
not speak in favor of this APF.
The volume of assets has an important role in rating assessment of the fund.
Therefore, the agency IRBIS found it necessary to put the data on the
proportion of assets of each fund in a whole pension system of the country.
The comments of the NSC specialists also deserve an attention, who
mention that APF received investment income as a result of dividend
payments for the year 2000 made by the issuers, whose shares had been in
the portfolios of the funds, which has sharply affected the IPDP rating of the
funds in May. Considering the specifics of accounting of the transactions
related to the reception of investment income as dividends, some PAMC
achieved an increase in the profitability figures of pension assets during the
period, when these payments were made. However, no payments will be
made till the next year, which will have certain impact on the dynamics of
IPDP in the next months.
Comments of IRBIS: the agency had not double checked the data
presented by the Committee and the NSC, therefore, the agency IRBIS does
not assume any liability on the reliability of the data by referring to
original sources.
The agency IRBIS is open to publishing any analytical work on pension
system of Kazakhstan, which can be presented to the agency by the
participants of the system and independent experts.
Information agency for financial markets "IRBIS",
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tel. (3272) 638892, fax (3272) 638980;
e-mail: an@kase.kz;
http://www.kase.kz/market/fmnews/