Fitch has changed the forecast on ratings of "Gazprom" to "Positive", confirming the ratings at "BBB" level
03.08.11 15:48
/IRBIS, August 3, 2011/ - Fitch Ratings has changed from "stable" to
"positive" outlook on long-term Issuer Default Ratings ("IDR"), of JCS
Gazprom, Russia's foreign and local currency stated in the report
released August 2 Fitch.
At the same time the agency affirmed the long-term issuer default
rating of Gazprom's foreign and local currency at "BBB", its senior
unsecured foreign currency rating to "BBB" and short-term foreign
currency IDR "F3". Rating debt issuance program Gaz Capital SA
affirmed at "BBB". Rating issuance program of commercial paper
Gazprom ECP SA affirmed at "F3".
According to Fitch "positive" outlook reflects the strengthening of the
financial position of Gazprom in 2010 and an expected further
improvement of Fitch credit rating company in 2011-2012. Also more
favorable state of the gas market, both for export and for domestic
sales. As stated in the report, Gazprom will continue to generate
positive free cash flow in 2011-2012.
At the same time, Fitch expects that the net adjusted leverage of the
group will remain below 1x in 2011 (0.9 x in 2010) and an adjusted
leverage of funds from operations (FFO) will continue to be in a
narrow range 1.3 x - 1.4 x in 2011-2012 (1.4 x in 2010) based on
conservative assumptions of Fitch's oil price of $ 75 per barrel in
2011 and $ 65 per barrel in 2012
By assumption of Fitch business and financial results continue to
support Gazprom's long-term contracts at prices mostly linked to
market prices for oil products in European sales of gas. Long-term
contracts, on the one hand, allow gas producers to carry out highly
capital projects with long preparatory phase, and potential delays
and, on the other hand, lay the foundation for a reliable supply to
customers.
Furthermore, as stated in the report, Fitch expects to reduce excess
supply in the European gas market in the next 2-3 years, against a
background of slow economic recovery, growth in demand in Japan,
the ever-increasing consumption in China and the planned phasing
out of nuclear power stations in Germany.
With regard to the projected rating of the company, Gazprom
receives the benefits of improved economic performance in sales in
Russia and the former Soviet Union. Fitch expects that the Russian
government continues to liberalize the domestic gas market by
raising gas prices by an average of 15% per year for industrial
customers to provide the same return on domestic and export sales
of gas by 2015
Another positive factor supporting the Company's financial results
was the transition to market prices and improving the payment
discipline of sales to countries of the former USSR. The favorable
financial impact of these factors is more than sufficient to offset the
negative financial impact of increasing the tax on mineral production
in 2011, Fitch reports.
Fitch also notes the declining transit risk in lucrative Gazprom's
export sales of gas to Europe, since the construction of the Nord
Stream pipeline with a capacity of up to 55 billion cubic meters going
according to schedule, and commissioning of the first phase
expected in 2011, also believes that most of the state influence -
both positive and negative - are already built into the structure of
business groups, and thus are part of the ratings.
[2011-08-03]