Forecast and recommendations of IFH "RESMI" (Kazakhstan) for June 20, 2011

/IRBIS, June 20, 2011/ - "Investment Financial House "RESMI" JCS (Almaty, IFH "RESMI") has provided IRBIS with the review of key events and its investment ideas and forecasts for June 20, 2011 The IFH "RESMI" analysts pay the investors' attention to the following key events on the markets: - The government of Angela Merkel, who spoke in favor of private investors made the Greek exchange their existing holding of bonds, has decided not to insist on this option, because it can cause a default. Thus, the main option for Greece is soft, "re- profiling" of public debt, which would be to lengthen maturities. In any case, the problem of Greece at the moment is the implementation of EU requirements and the IMF to retain some of the budget deficit limits. To perform this action in Greece intends to reduce social spending and sell off some state assets. However, the first measure is faced with a wide disapproval of the population in Greece are demonstration and debate within the government. Against this background, the EU and the IMF may provide only half of Greece's next tranche, which totals 12 billion euros. The amount of 6 billion euros in Greece will serve its debt in July, and further assistance will depend on how effective the measures will reduce the budget deficit. Can be considered a "unit dose" tactics of the EU and the IMF as an option, which will not allow Greece to default, while maintaining political pressure on her. At the moment, the main holder of the Greek public debt is Germany, the amount of bonds in the hands of the Greek which last year totaled $ 22.7 billion in combined share of public debt, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Germany in the portfolio is $ 498.8 billion - The U.S. Department of the Netherlands bank ING, acquires Capital One Financial Corporation. ING Direct USD specializes in direct banking, ie, remote services (Internet telephony), private and corporate clients. Purchase price will be $ 5.7 billion, $ 2 billion, of which Capital One plans to raise the capital markets, and $ 3.7 billion will be borrowed money. ING conditions are a share of 9.9% in the company, as well as the right to appoint a representative to the Board of Directors. This transaction will allow Capital One to become the 5th largest U.S. depositary bank and the leading bank for remote maintenance. Reduce administrative and other costs by optimizing business structures, will be $ 200 million a year. The news was announced 17.06.2011, Friday. At the close of trading price per share was $ Capital One 48.84. On the right is a graph of the dynamics of stock prices over the past 3 months. The fall of the last 2 weeks due to a general negativity in the markets for Greece. Analysts IFD "RESMI" believe that despite the news, today's auction will open with a positive gap, the likely growth potential in the medium term of 10-15%. - As Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller says, the "Golden Age" for gas producers began. By the end of the price of gas will cost $ 500 per thousand cubic meters. Gazprom plans to vertically integrate in the home sales market - in Europe. Although an offer to buy shares in European companies on the distribution of gas and electricity E-on (EONGY) have been brought Gazprom, the desire to acquire the object as a strategic investor remains in force. Gazprom's intention to have direct access to the European consumer is obvious, but the EU anti-monopoly committee under no circumstances would not approve the transaction. In North America also is booming for the development of infrastructure for collection, processing and transportation and storage of liquefied natural gas (LNG). An increasing number of mergers and acquisitions in the sector. So a U.S. company Southern Union, which currently is building the terminal for storage and retrieval of LNG is going to buy Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) for $ 4.2 billion in the EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.87 and P/B of 1.18. Shares of both companies, Southern Union and Energy Transfer Equity, grew up on June 16 to 17% and 7% respectively. Profit from the terminals will come from sales of power to oil and gas companies such as BG Group and Royal Dutch Shell. In addition to Southern Union, potential targets for acquisitions are El Paso Corporation (EP) and Williams Companies (WMB). Analysts of IFH "RESMI" give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: ------------------------------------------------ Last. Prognozed. Up/down from Issuer price price* current price ---------------- ------ ---------- ------------- Kazkommertzbank 428 528 23% Halyk bank 318 519 63% BankCenterCredit 500 921 84% EP KMG 18,150 23,490 29% Kazakhtelecom 19,550 26,300 35% ------------------------------------------------ * Fundamental assessment of "RESMI" as of the end of the year ** Targets according to the prognosis of the analysts asked by Bloomberg *** Relative strength index - an indicator of technical analysis, which determines strength of the trend and the likelihood of change. Overbought/oversold - when the value of the RSI indicator is closer to the mark of 100% / 0% The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material [2011-06-20]