Forecast and recommendations of IFH "RESMI" (Kazakhstan) for June 13, 2011

/IRBIS, June 13, 2011/ - "Investment Financial House "RESMI" JCS (Almaty, IFH "RESMI") has provided IRBIS with the review of key events and its investment ideas and forecasts for June 13, 2011 The IFH "RESMI" analysts pay the investors' attention to the following key events on the markets: - The volume of industrial production for April in UK m/m decreased by 1.7%, with expectations of zero growth, and y/y value decreased by 1.2%, while expectations of growth at 1.3%. Gaps in the forecasts and the actual indicators are significant - in the summer of growth can not be expected, so the only hope is 4K11. - Inflation in Germany on May m/m was 0% and the value of y/y 2.3% - both values coincided with forecasts. What is already the second month inflation in the EU shows the dynamics within the forecast says that the ECB refinancing rate may not increase, considering that the current trend of inflation is quite manageable. In addition, the ECB will take into account the situation of public debt peripheral countries, as high rate of refinancing can affect their future creditability. - Loan in China in May amounted to $ 85 billion, with expectations of $ 100 billion and this despite the fact that y/y value of this indicator amounted to $ 99 billion in M2 money supply in May rose by 15.1%, which is the lowest dynamics since 2008. Despite what some analysts believe that scenario is possible "hard landing" analysts of IFH "RESMI" have the opinion that China's economy will gradually cool down for 2H11. In addition, the reduction in lending, as a natural reason for the reduction of M2, in turn, was the medium to the Chinese Central Bank, which is thus trying to reduce the real estate bubble. And the measures that the Central Bank has made, have been increasing the refinancing rate and the minimum reserve banks (see chart). So that the delay should be considered with the positive side, because it prevents the market from excessive shock, which could be caused by a collapse of real estate bubble, which inevitably would have come. - Majid Al Futtaim Group plans to expand its business in an attractive retail market of Egypt. In this regard, last week the company wrote an application for permission to build a shopping center in Cairo. GLA of claimed Mall - 160,800 square meters, valued at U.S. $760 million. For the construction of a shopping center Majid Al Futtaim Group plans to raise 337 million U.S. dollars in banks in Egypt. The opening and commissioning of the mall is planned in 2014. Egypt's retail market is one of the most attractive. The country is 16th in the world by population. The average annual growth rate of 2%. In addition to the Egyptian population, continued growth in retail trade provide the tourists, because Egypt - traditionally a tourist country. Thus, the presence of Majid Al Futtaim Group to Egyptian market is certainly a priority in the company. To date, the Majid Al Futtaim Group already owns two shopping centers in Egypt (Cairo and Alexandria) and four plots of land in the Egyptian capital, where the planned construction of new shopping centers. Apparently, the company chose a strategy of investing in developing countries in the Arab world. Thus, under this strategy, the company plans to open a mall in Beirut in October 2012. Also, Majid Al Futtaim Group is developing a project in Syria, which includes a mall, 3 hotels, a business center and residential buildings. The first phase of the project costs the company $ 1 billion. Half of this amount, the company raised from local banks. To date, the Majid Al Futtaim Group owns 10 malls in the world and plans to double the number by 2020. - June 10 ENRC shares fell 7.8% to 742 pence. Factor in the fall was the departure of four independent board members due to disputes on the issue of corporate governance. European investors are unhappy with a high level of turnover on the board ever since the London IPO. In this connection, the company plans to review during the next three months on the principles of corporate governance. Also, according to Western analysts, the current contract prices of sales of ferrochrome in the third quarter should be adjusted by 6% to $ 1.35 per pound. Spot prices for ferrochrome at $ 1.25 per pound reached the bottom due to oversupply in the market of ferrochrome and a temporary decline in demand from the steel industry. Despite the negative news, at the current P / E multiplier at 3.71, the shares of ENRC are traded with discount to Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton. Analysts of IFH "RESMI" give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: ------------------------------------------------ Last. Prognozed. Up/down from Issuer price price* current price ---------------- ------ ---------- ------------- Kazkommertzbank 406 528 30% Halyk bank 320 519 62% BankCenterCredit 518 921 78% EP KMG 18,600 23,490 26% Kazakhtelecom 19,600 26,300 34% ------------------------------------------------ * Fundamental assessment of "RESMI" as of the end of the year ** Targets according to the prognosis of the analysts asked by Bloomberg *** Relative strength index - an indicator of technical analysis, which determines strength of the trend and the likelihood of change. Overbought/oversold - when the value of the RSI indicator is closer to the mark of 100%/0% The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2011-06-13]