Market reviews and recommendations of BCC Invest JSC (Kazakhstan) analysts for April 28, 2011

/IRBIS. April 28, 2011/ - BCC Invest JSC has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, market reviews and investment ideas for April 27, 2011. The analysts are expecting a mixed and multidimensional opening on KASE in the inconsistent exterior background. During the day, the KASE index stock quotations dynamics will depend on Western investors. Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" expect the following developments in international markets today: - The money supply increased 3.7% in March. The money supply in Kazakhstan went up 3.7% in March (4.4% from the beginning of the year) up to 8,923,9 billion KZT, the National Bank reported. The cash volume increased 0.5% as a month (4.5% decrease from the beginning of the year) up to 1 trillion 97.1 billion KZT, the banking system deposits - 4.2% (5.8% from the beginning of the year) up to 7,826.7 billion KZT. The stand-by funds increased 6.8% for March (9.2% from the beginning of the year) up to 2,810.2 billion KZT, thin funds (excluding the fixed deposits of STB in National Bank) - 9.7% (9.7%) up to 2,351.4 billion KZT. - SP predicts the Kazakhstani GDP to increase 7% between 2011-2013. Kazakhstani GDP would increase over 7% between 2011-2013, on the version of Standard Poor's rating agency. The possibility of doubling the oil production by 2020 and structurally stable net DFI making 8% of GDP for the year, strengthens our standpoint, according to which the GDP will grow more than 7% in 2011-2013. Such huge economic restore would probably lead to the cyclic improvement to the balanced level of extended government's fiscal activity by 2013", - the report informs. In particular, the Kazakhstani GDP would increase 8%, due to the prognosis. It's notable that the raw materials sector is still dominating in the economics of Kazakhstan, it's due not only to small-sized economics, but also to great raw materials stock. While the state sector finances will always suffer the corrections connected with the trade conditions, the predicted growth of raw materials extraction will differentiate Kazakhstan from many other "oil" economics. 25% of the GDP and 60% of export goes to oil production sector. 75% of DFI are sent to oil-and-gas sector. SP expects the proficit balance of current operations account to change indo deficit in 2011 because of import increase, and the gap would be financed from DFI. The agency expects DFI to make 6% of the GDP and increase to 8% during the prognosis period. Probably, the lack of financial possibilities for crediting at banks would restrain the restoration of domestic demand and the service sector. Low increase of crediting is one of the main reasons of the banking system assets. "Problems with the credit portfolio quality lowered a bit, but most of the banks will have to drop a great part of doubtful and hopeless credits. With the lack of the strict algorithm of the pledged estate the government and the banks act cautiously and don't hurry with selling the estate on low-volume market. So we don't expect the "reload" of banking sector or the settlement of most problems-causing credits in 2011", - the report says. Kazakhstan has the following sovereignty ratings: on the liability in foreign currency - BBB/Stable/A-3, on liability in domestic currency - BBB+/Stable/A-2, on national scale - kzAAA. - Bank Center Credit had published its financial audit report for 2010. The year has ended with loss for the bank. The main problem is the decrease of net percentage margin, which is the result of high liquidity level and the increase of provision on credit assets. Soon the analysts would review their model of estimating "BankCenterCredit" JCS stocks. - Kazkommertzbank starts the road show on Eurobond production on May, 2. Kazakhstani Kazkomertzbank (KKB) has set JP Morgan and UBS Investment Bank as the rulers of Eurobond production on 144a/RegS rule, the bank's message reports. According to it, keeping the market conjuncture into account, the dealing is expected to be arranged after the meeting with the American and British investors, which is to start from May 2, 2011. As informed, the KKB governing declared on the beginning of April that they don't exclude the possibility of Eurobond production in 2011. KKB adopted the new euroobligations in amount of $2 billion. Great Britain's listing service has approved the basic prospect of this program last autumn. The bank has thought of a possibility of placing the Eurobond for the period of 7 years and to the amount of $750 million, but dropped it after the October road show. "BCC Invest" JCS analysts don't expect this news to affect the stock quotations and GDR of Kazkommertsbank, because the governing of the bank earlier declared about the possibility of obtaining extra funds by producing the Eurobond in 2011. The analysts keep the recommendation "NEUTRAL" on bank's stocks and GDR. Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" also expect the following developments in international markets today: - The publication of international reserves is expected today in Russia. - Today the import price index at 12:00 (AST) and data on unemployment level at 13:55 (AST) will be published in Germany. France will publish the data on consumption expenses at 12:45(AST), and Italy - the data on trade books at 14:00 (AST). - USA will publish the data on the economic activity of the Chicago FRB, personal consumption, GDP price index, basic consumption price index and also on primary and secondary applies for unemployment benefit at 18:30 (AST). The index of consumption comfort from Bloomberg will be published at 19:45(AST). The data on incomplete estate dealings will be published at 20:00 (AST). The reports will be provided by the following companies: Exxon Mobil Corp, Microsoft Corp, Procter & Gamble Co, Royal Dutch Shell PLC, PepsiCo Inc, China Telecom Corp Ltd, China Petroleum & Chemical Corp, Bank of China Ltd, China Construction Bank Corp, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd, Rosneft Oil Co, Gazprom OAO, Honda Motor Co Ltd, Nomura Holdings Inc, Bayer AG, and others. Analysts of BCC Invest JSC are giving the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in internal market: ------------------------------------------------------------------ Last price Target Potential, Issuer Code price % Recommenda- tion ------------------------------------------------------------------ Kazkommertsbank KKGB 485 583 +20.21 Neutral KKGBp 225 196 -12.89 Neutral Halyk Bank HSBK 362 415 +14.64 Hold Bank CenterCredit CCBN 515 646 +25.44 Hold Tsesnabank TSBN 865 1,030 +19.08 Neutral KazMunaiGaz RDGZ 19,550 20,500 +4.86 Hold Kazakhmys PLC GB_KZMS 3,270 3,870 +18.35 Buy ENRC PLC GB_ENRC 2,220 2,550 +14.86 Hold Kazakhtelekom KZTK 19,600 Review KZTKp 9,700 9,300 -4.12 Hold MREK MREK 1,100 1,130 +0.03 Hold ------------------------------------------------------------------ The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2011-04-28]