Market reveiws and recommendations of Financial Company REAL INVEST.KZ (Kazakhstan) analysts on October 25, 2010

/IRBIS, October 25, 2010/ - JSC Finance Company REAL Invest.kz (Almaty, REAL Invest.kz) provided to IRBIS overview of major developments in Kazakhstan and the world markets on October 25, 2010. JSC Financial Company REAL Invest.kz notes the following significant developments on the world stock, commodity and currency market: - major venues in Europe and the U.S. have closed a small multidirectional change quotations. The final trading session of the eventful week has turned out not too effective. On the background of the lack of publication of important macroeconomic indicators as well as a short respite, taken corporate reporting season, market participants were in no hurry to force things, the more so for the upcoming weekend is expected to G20 finance ministers' meeting in Seoul. Despite the fact that the real productivity of the summit "Big Twenty" is now very few people expect, yet it is clear that the statements of leaders of top-20 countries, may affect market sentiment, and thus its dynamics. Trades in Europe on Friday ended a moderate decrease in the range 0.3%, with less than all the lost German DAX (-0.1%), which contributed to the publication of current values of the index of business optimism IFO, which is contrary to the expectations of analysts falling to 0.3 points instead increased by 0.8 points. Trades in the U.S. were sluggish, while if the Dow Jones index during the session lazily consolidated below the opening level, the S&P 500 showed similar dynamics, trading in positive territory. Following the auction, Dow Jones fell by 0.13%, S & P 500 rose 0.24%. Over the past week's CAC 40 rose 1.07%, reaching a new six-month peak at around 3,878 points, DAX increased by about 1.76%, FTSE has grown by 0.67%. Dow Jones up to the reporting of five trading sessions added to the capitalization of 0.63%, S & P 500 showed a similar result, an increase of 0,6%. This week in the U.S. will be published the most important market data of primary and secondary real estate, as well as changes in demand for durable goods - quite optimistic analysts expect growth rate to 1.9%. Corporate reporting season in the U.S. next week will culminate, among the most important note out on Tuesday a report Arcelor Mittal and US Steel, on Wednesday, ConocoPhillips, and Visa, on Thursday, Coca-Cola Ent, Exxon Mobil, Motorola and Microsoft, on Friday, is worth paying attention to the report of Chevron. In the euro area, there are data on the dynamics of new production orders, posting the current value of new loans, and on Friday will be known September rate of unemployment - it is expected that the rate remained unchanged at a level of 10.1%. - the site of the developing countries on Friday closed mostly decreasing bids. Major indices Four BRIC during the final trading session of the week pretty much was feverish, and managed to close in positive territory but the Russian RTS, adding up to the day 0.25%. The remaining trio has fallen in the range 0.3% - 0.47%, against a background correction of the basic raw material assets on Thursday. As a result of the week three of the four BRIC countries have added an index in the capitalization - BSE and the Shanghai Composite rose 0.2% and 0.13% respectively, RTS for the week rose by 1.68%. And only on the basis of accounting Bovespa five trading sessions collapsed 3.06%, which contributed to the statements by the Minister of Finance of the country that soon may top foreign wars. The upcoming G20 summit can lift the mood of the regional market participants - is expected to shift the balance in the developing world by more than 6%, which is quite clearly shows the interest of Western countries in developing the capacity of developing countries. - The cost of a barrel of oil brand "WTI" following Friday's trading grew by 1,1% to level of $ 81.9. As a result of volatile week, during which the quotation of "black gold" was first achieved growth of more than 2%, then approximately the same amount falls below the opening week, quote changes are similar to the Friday - the final day of the week, market participants have decided to start all over beginning. Overall, three out of four weeks last October in a fairly narrow consolidation within the price range of $ 81-83 per barrel, and almost daily change of the candle from red to green and vice versa, suggests tension and uncertainty, always accompanied the market participants. The last time a similar pattern has developed just under a year ago when the rather weak reports from companies, have transformed the consolidation of oil prices in the three-week slide. This time, however, the situation is somewhat different - most of the companies report showed a profit for the third quarter, and a protracted period of consolidation quotes summer, may well become one of the drivers for purchases. In anticipation of the Fed meeting, which will probably be launched "quantitative easing program 2", "REAL Invest.kz" does not see significant reasons for the decline in oil prices, while at the same time talking on the formed an uptrend, at least, premature. - The cost of ounce of gold on the results of the last six trading sessions to adjust on 4.37%. During the Friday session is implemented the second part of the forecast "REAL Invest.kz" - to achieve the quotations of "yellow metal" level of $ 1,300 per ounce, in particular, bidding took place at the level of $ 1,315 - not enough for quite a bit. Nevertheless, "REAL Invest.kz" believes that traders still have a chance to change and subject to the immutability of the current external background, next week is quite likely to trigger the psychological level of $ 1,300. In general, the overall situation in the medium term is more favorable for the growth of gold prices, rather than for their slides, and the current correction can, according to "REAL Invest.kz", significantly improve the upward trend, giving it fresh impetus. Until the end of this year, expected to reach the mark at $ 1,450 an ounce, while the level of $ 1,500, being too large, is unlikely to be conquered in the past year. - currency pair EUR/USD reconsolidated throughout the trading session Friday and has not changed in value, closing at about the start of trading. In general, create tensions in the currency market, after the statements of some officials of the need for drastic measures to reform the current global monetary system, the most direct impact on trading on the currency market, where market participants, not wanting to take additional risks, almost retired, that was the reason that the euro is consolidating around the same price level during the entire month. As an additional stopper serves a two-month non-stop rally of European currencies, which, according to several players, led to the overvalued euro. However, given the prospects of beginning a "policy of quantitative easing in February", "REAL Invest.kz" evaluates opportunities for growth in the euro as more realistic than the strengthening of the dollar. - British pound on the results of Friday's trading has lost about 0.6%, to stay close to the level of support at around 1.565. Over the past week GBP/USD pair has lost about 2%, and on the daily chart clearly emerged script speedy completion of the upward trend, with its subsequent transition to trend downward. "REAL Invest.kz" predicts decrease in British currency in the short term to a level of 1.55, and unless there is something substantial, capable of 180 degrees to change the situation, the pair GBP/USD will continue to decrease in quotations. Analysts of "REAL Invest.kz" noted that the most attractive stories among the shares of Kazakh companies are RD Kazmunaigas, Kazakhtelecom and Halyk Bank. Especially attractive look and EP Kazakhtelecom, as both companies are very strong balance sheet with low debt burden, the EP's net debt at all negative, i.e. cash flows of the company exceed liabilities. Besides their business generates more free cash flow, which allows them to pay a very solid dividends. Dividend income on preferred shares of KMG and Kazakhtelecom is 6-8% and 3- 4% of ordinary shares. Shares of these companies are traded much cheaper than the shares of similar companies in other emerging markets. This material is for informational purposes and is not an offer or recommendation to perform any transaction in securities. Agency IRBIS is not responsible for the opinions expressed in this material. [2010-10-25]