Market reveiws and recommendations of Financial Company REAL INVEST.KZ (Kazakhstan) analysts on October 13, 2010

/IRBIS, October 13, 2010/ - JSC Finance Company REAL Invest.kz (Almaty, REAL Invest.kz) provided to IRBIS overview of major developments in Kazakhstan and the world markets on October 13, 2010. JSC Financial Company REAL Invest.kz notes the following significant developments on the world stock, commodity and currency market: - trading on major U.S. and European markets once again ended differently. Uncertainty amid expectations the Fed meeting short reined most of the last trading session in Europe, coupled with the intentions of the Chinese authorities to withdraw a substantial amount of liquidity from the economy made by reason of the decrease in European venues ranging from 0.2% -08%. U.S. indices, in turn, most of the session actually consolidated in the run-up to "minute FOMC", but the completion of the session was still in positive territory. Even despite the fact that the specific responses of monetary authorities, market participants have not heard. Fed officials only said that if the current situation, the alarming rate of recovery of the U.S. economy in the short term will not change for the better, need to adopt new measures of quantitative easing would be so obvious that none of the arguments conservatives are no longer able to influence the views of most members of the Central Bank. Model Candlesticks "Dodge", established on the daily chart of the American index S & P 500 after a month of growth and confident of breaking through the psychological mark of 1,150 points, according to some American analysts, able to speak the decisive factor for the beginning of a downward correction. - Four BRIC, which determines the mood of sites emerging markets, up to the day closed mostly growth. Indian BSE, fell by 0.67% once again tainted the statistics of the regional sites, which mostly show growth. A remarkable fact may be called the fact that the Chinese SSEC-up session, added more than 1%, contrary to the Chinese government measures to toughen monetary policy. Premarket for regional areas to the present moment is characterized as a positive - despite the weak closure of the Western indices, a significant supporting factor is the published accounts of computer giant Intel, whose profits in the third quarter increased by 59% compared to the same period last year totaled $ 1.86 billion ., or 52 cents per common share. - quotes a barrel of oil, at the end of last session, grew slightly more than half a percent, while a substantial part of the growth came in the period after the publication of results shortened the Fed meeting. Prices of "black gold" can be kept above a mark of $ 80 for eight sessions, with most analysts believe that in the short-term price of a barrel of oil will adjust below that mark. - roughly similar dynamics demonstrated and quotes troy ounces of gold, reaching up to a maximum session on Monday. Regarding attempts to predict future price changes, "precious metal" analysts of "REAL Invest.kz" is not ambiguous, as when assessing the prospects for oil prices - according to "REAL Invest.kz", the current situation may have begun as a continuation of the correction and the restoration of the impressive recent uptrend. A clearer picture may emerge only over the next few sessions. - majors Forex EUR/USD and GBP/USD up to the last session closed multi-directional changes in quotes, so if the euro managed to add about 0.9% to close near the mark of 1.40, the British pound by about the same quantity dropped, and concluded the session is only slightly above the mark to 1.58. In the short term, according to the "REAL Invest.kz", looks likely to increase in the EUR/USD in the case of overcoming the psychological level at around 1.40 and continued correction of the British pound, which can achieve a pair of quotation marks in 1.57. Financial company "REAL Invest.kz" notes the following significant events in the Kazakh market: - State budget revenues amounted to KZT2,992.9 billion or 97.9% of the plan. Compared to the same period last year, revenues increased by 16.2% due to tax revenues. Tax revenues for the first 9 months of this year amounted to KZT1,970.5 billion, or 109.2% of the plan in excess to 166.8 billion. Compared with the corresponding period last year an increase of 406.5 billion. During the first 9 months of 2010 the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Kazakhstan has placed state-issued securities amounting to 558.8 billion. In the first 9 months of this year cost the national budget (excluding repayment of loans) amounted to KZT3,073.4 billion or 97.1%. The amount of default payment plan for the reporting period amounted to 92.4 billion. On 1 October the Republican budgetary programs administrator pending commitments in the amount of KZT899.9 billion. As part of the development of targeted transfers received from the state budget, will be implemented and the implementation of the program "Road Map Business - 2020". Want to note that the region is very poorly mastered the funds for the program. Thus, in the national budget for 2010 (excluding the fall clarification) on the program "Road Map Business -2020" provided KZT14.0 billion, for the 9 months of this year regions allocated KZT4.0 billion from which local authorities mastered KZT2.1 billion, or 52.5%. Remained unfulfilled 1.9 billion. - In January-September this year, Kazakhstan increased oil and gas exports by 5.9%. On Tuesday in Astana at the Cabinet meeting said Vice-Minister of Oil and Gas Mr. Asset Magauov. "According to the oil companies, for the first nine months of 2010 produced 58.9 million tons of oil, including gas condensate, which amounted to 104.8% compared to last year. Exports of crude oil and natural gas and gas condensate production amounted to 52.9 million tons, 105.9% compared to last year ", - said Mr. A. Magauov. "Plan for oil and gas production for 2010 is 80 million tons and 104.6% compared to last year. Exports in 2010 are expected 73 million tons and 105.5% compared to last year," - he added. According to Vice-Minister, in the refineries is expected to process 13.1 million tons of oil, 108.1% compared to last year, including produce 2.8 million tons of gasoline, diesel fuel, 3.9 million tons. Gas production in Kazakhstan amounted to nine months of 27.2 billion cubic meters - 103.7% compared to last year. In 2010, the volume of gas production is projected to reach 37 billion cubic meters, accounting for 102.7% compared to last year, concluded Mr. A. Magauov. - Total external borrowings by issuers in Kazakhstan in 2011 will be approximately equal to the amount of payments on foreign debt and about $ 8 billion. This forecast provided Citibank economist for Russia and CIS countries Mrs. Natalia Novikova. "All loans in the coming year will approximately cover the payments required in 2011. According to the forecast of the National Bank, about $ 2 billion in the quarter amounted to foreign debt payments. Accordingly, for the year of about $ 8 billion to be paid. And I'm laying around in its forecast that these borrowings will be sufficient to simply cover these payments, "- explained Mrs. N. Novikova. Deputy Chairman of the Board of JSC "Citibank Kazakhstan" Mrs. Aigul Dzhaylaubekova noted that the bank expects 2011 output to external debt markets a number of companies with state participation after Kazatomprom and Kazakhstan Temir Zholy. They are placed in the current year Eurobonds. In her opinion, within a year of debt issue by Kazakhstan issuers will be carried out more than the issue of equity in the form of IPO. "Unless the government decides to privatize some of its state assets through the issuance of these companies on public markets," - she added. Mrs. A. Dzhaylaubekova believes that investors may show interest in issues of debt securities of the banking sector, despite some misgivings about appearing in connection with the recent restructuring of external debt of several large banks from Kazakhstan. According to her, with very great interest to investors will be met by the paper of banks that do not just stand, but also benefited from the crisis and the rearrangement of forces in the Kazakh banking sector, reports IA News-Kazakhstan. "Another thing is that as time many of these banks, which potentially can get (market borrowings), now in the media do not need" - she added. Analysts of "REAL Invest.kz" noted that the most attractive stories among the shares of Kazakh companies are RD Kazmunaigas, Kazakhtelecom and Halyk Bank. Especially attractive look and EP Kazakhtelecom, as both companies are very strong balance sheet with low debt burden, the EP's net debt at all negative, i.e. cash flows of the company exceed liabilities. Besides their business generates more free cash flow, which allows them to pay a very solid dividends. Dividend income on preferred shares of KMG and Kazakhtelecom is 6-8% and 3- 4% of ordinary shares. Shares of these companies are traded much cheaper than the shares of similar companies in other emerging markets. This material is for informational purposes and is not an offer or recommendation to perform any transaction in securities. Agency IRBIS is not responsible for the opinions expressed in this material. [2010-10-13]