Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of IFH RESMI (Kazakhstan) for September 29, 2010

/IRBIS, September 29, 2010/ - Finance & Investment House RESMI JSC (Almaty, IFH RESMI) provided IRBIS overview of major events and their investment ideas and projections for September 29, 2010. Analysts of IFH RESMI are paying attention to investors on the following important events in the markets now: - In the II quarter of 2010, residential real estate markets of most countries continued to increase the pace of recovery after the crisis. In some countries, a fall in prices is still ongoing, but in general it is not as significant as in the previous quarter. If in the first quarter of 2010, leading to increased cost of housing units has been Hong Kong, where a price for residential buildings rose to 29.6% during this period, in the second quarter, "locomotive" of global growth in the value of residential real estate has become Singapore. The prices here rose by 38.2% compared with the II quarter of 2009 and 5% relative to I quarter of this year. This trend is alarming for the market, because it reveals the formation of a bubble. In this regard, the local authorities to take appropriate measures to tighten mortgage lending rules, introducing new taxes and allocating additional land. Danger of overheating of the market also exists in Australia. The Australian government is struggling with rising housing prices due to limitations in the construction. However, the market marked influx of investors and buyers of primary residence, which is a breeding ground for new growth in prices. Currently, the prices and mortgage rates have stabilized. In this situation, the primary buyers of housing in Australia in a hurry to make a purchase until prices or mortgage rates have not started to grow even faster. Investors have also invested in real estate - with the expectation of its further appreciation. Additional factors increasing prices is the lack of new supply and population growth. Moderate growth in housing prices or they registered a slight decrease in developed countries - those whose real estate markets are gradually recovering from the crisis (the UK, USA, France), and those who survived the recession, comparatively well-off (Switzerland, Germany, Finland). "Outsiders" are still Ukraine, Ireland and Lithuania, where prices are compared with the II quarter of last year decreased by 15-17%. The main reason is the weakness of the macroeconomic indicators. Thus, by mid-2010 prices on the world's housing markets fell on average by 9% compared to pre-crisis years of 2006-2008. It is expected that in the developed European countries (Britain, Germany, France, Italy), housing price will rise by 2-3%. In Asia, price growth slowed in most countries: Singapore - up to 3% in China - up to 5%. However, in Hong Kong, the cost of residential properties continues to grow at significant rates: in 2011, is expected to increase in house prices by 12%. Significantly reduced the expected rate of increase in house prices in Brazil - with 20% in 2010 to 5% in 2011. But in Australia the prices next year will remain unchanged - the same as in the U.S.. It is generally assumed that the increase in housing values will be constrained by government regulation of the market and rising interest rates. Thus, analysts of IFD "RESMI" recommend investing in residential property of the expected increase in prices or real estate funds in the aforementioned regions, specializing in residential real estate. - BP Plc plans to issue bonds for the first time after an oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Energy Company plans to sell securities of $ 3.5 billion, which is housed in a 5 - and 10 - year notes through a financial unit BP - BP Capital Markets Plc. BP to regain the investment status in the eyes of investors after more than 2 months that have elapsed since an oil spill. The company was awarded an investment rating from Moody's Investors Service to Baa3, the lower level of investment ratings. CDS on the 5-year bonds BP declined to 191.6 points from the previous values of 631 basis points. Analysts of IFH RESMI give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Issuer Last price Predicted price* Up/down from Target RSI. Current price price** %*** ------------------ ---------- ---------------- ------------- ------- ----- Kazkommertsbak 420 796 89.5% 385 55.93 Halyk bank 307 409 33.2% 353 47.35 Bank Center Credit 526 1,218 131.6% 869 45.42 RD KMG 16,000 24,895 55.6% 23,277 46.45 Kazkhtelekom 15,200 33,842 122.6% 28,524 71.20 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fundamental evaluation IFH RESMI for 12 months (weekly review) ** Target according to the consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg *** Relative strength index - an indicator of technical analysis. determines strength of trend and likelihood of change. Overbought / oversold - when RSI indicator value is closer to 100% / 0%. - Cost of common shares Kazkommertsbank assessment IFD "RESMI" will cost no less than KZT796 per share by the end of 2010; - Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan is estimated IFD "RESMI" as the most promising in terms of business development financial institution in Kazakhstan. Analysts see the growth of the bank's shares up to KZT409 per share; - Shares of Bank CenterCredit in the long term analysts IFD "RESMI" about the outlook for growth in securities of the bank to the level of 1.230 m.; - Stocks of Kazakhtelecom are looking most attractive for investment in the long term. Analysts IFD "RESMI" recommend buying simple shareholders of the issuer. - The updated target price of shares of JSC Exploration Production KMG is KZT24.895 per share. The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2010-09-29]