Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of IFH RESMI (Kazakhstan) for February 10, 2010

/IRBIS, February 10, 2010/ - Finance & Investment House RESMI JSC (Almaty, IFH RESMI) provided IRBIS overview of major events and their investment ideas and projections for February 10, 2010. Analysts now paying attention to the following investors' significant events: Analysts IFD "RESMI" is now paying attention to the following investors' significant events in the markets, and in particular to review the rating of "Kazakhstan Temir Joly", which led to a decrease in quotations on its Eurobonds. Yesterday it became known that the credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service, plans to review the issuer rating of "Baa3" Kazakhstan's national railway company "Kazakhstan Temir Joly" in the direction of a possible downgrade. Moody's has placed on review and rating of "Baa3" senior unsecured Eurobond issue of $ 800 million (issuer - Kazakhstan Temir Zholy Finance BV). Moody's concerned about the credit performance of KTZ, which could potentially deviate from the rating of the recommendations in the medium term. Also, the agency notes that the group has a debt of $ 450 million, which is due for payment in 2011. Moody's analysts believe that the plans KTZ attract government subsidies for its investment program, negotiating with banks, the implementation of investment plans would increase the capital by 2011. The same time Moody's has placed on review for possible reduction of the corporate rating of the subsidiary KTZ - JSC "KazTemirtrans" "Ba1". News of a possible lowering of ratings of "Kazakhstan Temir Joly" negative impact on the quotation of its Eurobonds. For example, Eurobonds for $ 350 million maturing in 2016 fell by 81 basis points and their value amounted to 97.53 of face value, eurobonds on $ 450 million maturing in 2011 fell by 23 basis points and amounted to 99.51. Analysts IFD "RESMI" believe that a drop in prices, in the first place, due to a reduction of interest from foreign investors, who react strongly to ratings of issuers. Secondly, Kazakhstan institutional investors, lower interest securities denominated in foreign currency in connection with the gradual strengthening of the tenge. Analysts IFD "RESMI" believe that despite the downgrade, the issuer stable and solvent. Analysts of IFH RESMI give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Issuer Last price Predicted price* Up/down from Target RSI, Current price price** %*** ------------------ ---------- ---------------- ------------- ------- ----- Kazkommertsbak 645.01 796 +23.4% 1,999 44.70 Halyk bank 372 409 +9.9% 1,006 Bank Center Credit 790 1,218 +54.2% 865 51.63 ENRC 2,201 On review 2,755 47.60 Kazakhmys 3,059.1 On review 3,523 46.21 RD KMG 21,900 26,380 +20.5% 26,734 46.81 Kazkhtelekom 18,000 33,842 +88.0% n/a 39.81 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fundamental evaluation IFH RESMI for 12 months (weekly review) ** Target according to the consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg *** Relative strength index - an indicator of technical analysis. determines strength of trend and likelihood of change. Overbought / oversold - when RSI indicator value is closer to 100% / 0% - Cost of ordinary shares of Kazkommertsbank assessment IFD "RESMI" will cost no less than KZT796 per share by the end of 2010; - Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan is estimated IFD "RESMI" as the most promising in terms of business development financial institution in Kazakhstan. Analysts see the growth of bank shares to KZT409 per share; - Shares of Bank CenterCredit in the long term, analysts IFD "RESMI" about the outlook for growth in bank securities to a level 1,230 m.; - Shares of Kazakhtelecom look the most attractive for investment in the long term. Analysts IFD "RESMI" recommend buying ordinary shareholders of the issuer. - JSC Exploration Production KazMunaiGas - the company is actively consolidating oil and gas sector in Kazakhstan, which exports about 80% of its oil. Provision is 5% of the total volume of proven reserves in Kazakhstan. Analysts IFD "RESMI" sees upside of 22% in the conservative approach, ie, while maintaining the production level as in 2008, increasing capex in 1.5 times, acquiring 50% stake in Mangistaumunaigaz and at an average price of oil at $ 65/barrel. The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2010-02-10]