ANALYSIS: In June of 2006 KASE's share market was calm

/IRBIS, Assel Оmarova, Andrey Tsalyuk, July 11, 06/ - In June of 2006 on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) in all sectors of the share market (excluding repo transactions sector) 386 deals were registered for total amount of KZT13,509.5 m. или USD112.8 m. at the current rate effective on deals making dates. The mentioned amount is 26.3% from monthly turnover of KASE's corporate securities market (in May - 34.4%) and 1.0% from the exchange's whole monthly turnover (1.8%). The shown data, as well as information published in the tables below, evidence about the only thing: June was very calm on KASE\s share market. KASE_Shares index after the spring correction does not give traders a treat regarding the dynamics. On May 18 the index went to "a horizontal sailing" and fluctuated within 1,600 - 1,750 not willing to go upward as well as downward. Maximum fluctuation amplitude of the index is a bit higher than 9%. Taking into account the fact that exchange market-makers must keep a 50% spread on obligatory quotations, the mentioned index fluctuations should be considered just as working ones. Judging on results of June it seems that the share market, unfortunately, had come back to the condition, in which it was until the middle of 2005. Effect of almost all factors able to push KASE_Shares down have remained behind. And for giving a positive impulse to the market there is necessity in results of activity of most capitalized listing companies at least for the first half of this year as well as full placement of announced shares by leading banks and, the major thing, - very big willingness of participants to push the market upward again in a speculative way. In this situation non-market factors, which traditionally complicate share trading on KASE, make the key influence upon the conjuncture. Analysts of IRBIS assume one of the main problems now is closing of the so called "hidden repo" transactions by pension funds, opened on many shares during "the price boom". These deals were not declared on KASE as repo. Difference of opening prices and current rates significantly troubles pension assets managers and their counteragents, that sometimes results in an inconsistent behavior of prices. Judging on results of June analysts of IRBIS consider that until autumn the share market will stay on the reached price levels, its activity will not be high, market participants will be interested in corporate bonds trading sector, and on the share market brokers will "work out" instruments, prices of which do not (or almost do not) influence upon KASE_Shares. For example, in the analyzed month among such the instruments there were common shares of BANK CASPIAN JSC (CSBN), preferred shares of Ust-Kamenogorsk titanium-magnesium combine JSC (UTMKp), common shares of Rakhat JSC (RAHT) and Ornek XXI JSC (ORNK). Tables below illustrate KASE's share market in June of 2006. Statistical description of share market on KASE in June and in May of 2006 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Month ------------------- Trend June May June 2006 to Indicator 2006 2006 May 2006 ------------------------------------------ --------- --------- ------------- Trade volume, USD th. 112,783.9 182,142.7 -38.1% Trade volume, KZT m. 13,509.5 22,316.4 -39.5% including offerings, USD th. 0 0 X including offerings, KZT m. 0 0 X Number of deals 386 608 -36.5% Number of instruments, involved in delas 38 44 -13.6% Stake of nego deals (quantity), % 22.0 26.5 -4.5 pp Stake of nego deals (volume), % 37.8 37.4 +0.4 pp Participation of pension assets, % gross 21.4 27.8 -6.4 pp Number of exchange members, who made deals 29 29 0 Market concentration, %* 55.4 57.0 -1.6 pp ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- * percent form total turnover of shares, which falls to the stake of most tradable securities (their quantity is 5% from total number of titles of shares, included in trade lists of KASE) is indicated. Change of lists of shares traded on KASE, in June of 2006 ------------------------------------- Shares: Issuers: Category of ------------ ------------ admission number trend number trend ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 42 -5 28 -1 B 42 -3 33 -3 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 84 -8 60 -4 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- N 6 0 6 0 ----------- ------ ----- ------ ----- TOTAL 90 -8 64 -4 ------------------------------------- Note: "А" - official "A" listing category; "В" - official "B" listing category; "А+В" - official list; at the end of the month, changes during month. Main indicators of exchange's shares purchase-sale market in June of 2006 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Market Volume Volume capitalization KASE_Shares of deals, of deals, Number Date USD m. index th. USD m. KZT of deals ----------- -------------- ----------- --------- --------- -------- May 31, 06 32,074.6 1,677.56 2,105.8 255.4 11 June 1, 06 34,350.4 1,747.04 10,781.1 1,307.3 34 June 2, 06 32,364.8 1,671.56 19,626.8 2,377.0 26 June 5, 06 31,472.8 1,589.38 1,557.8 186.9 16 June 6, 06 33,213.6 1,689.25 794.9 95.4 19 June 7, 06 32,293.9 1,765.88 16,662.7 1,996.5 15 June 8, 06 31,220.0 1,687.62 1,639.0 196.4 17 June 9, 06 31,767.6 1,702.01 2,217.4 266.5 24 June 12, 06 30,776.4 1,680.89 1,480.4 178.1 13 June 13, 06 30,893.7 1,676.73 174.7 20.9 14 June 14, 06 30,680.7 1,668.58 796.9 95.1 16 June 15, 06 30,509.1 1,725.94 1,349.9 162.9 17 June 16, 06 30,745.8 1,684.39 6,046.9 725.7 13 June 19, 06 30,861.3 1,654.73 90.4 10.8 11 June 20, 06 30,781.7 1,663.64 1,466.7 173.5 14 June 21, 06 30,313.1 1,669.23 1,067.6 126.7 22 June 22, 06 31,459.0 1,650.84 446.2 52.9 13 June 23, 06 30,089.3 1,654.58 5,482.0 656.2 14 June 26, 06 30,331.3 1,658.71 565.1 67.7 9 June 27, 06 31,631.1 1,817.79 9,461.7 1,131.8 12 June 28, 06 29,324.6 1,689.40 704.2 83.9 15 June 29, 06 29,443.0 1,690.69 4,157.0 493.4 21 June 30, 06 30,278.5 1,679.03 26,214.5 3,104.1 31 ----------- -------------- ----------- --------- --------- -------- Trend -1,796.1 +1.47 -5.6% +0.09% ------------------------------------------------------------------- Change of KASE_Shares index in various period at closing of trades on June 30, 2006 (basis actual/365) --------------------------------------------------------- Change --------------- Period % % APR ----------------------------------------- -------- ------ For the last 30 days (month) +8.1 +98.2 From this year beginning (from Jan 1, 06) +180.5 +365.9 For the last 365 days (year) +481.3 +481.3 For year 2005 +203.0 +203.0 From the beginning of 2004 +1,172.9 +469.9 --------------------------------------------------------- Results of share trades on KASE in June of 2006 in purchase-sale sector (including nego deals) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Price, KZT per share -------------------------------------------------------- Volume last deal: for last 365 days of Num- Share ----------------- ------------------ deals, ber of symbol min max price trend,% min max th. USD deals ------ --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- --------- -------- ------ ALKS 10.00 10.00 10.00 -25.93 10.00 20.25 8.6 1 ALKSp 10.00 ALKSp3 10.00 ALKZ 1716.00 2565.00 1716.00 +23.45 100.00 2565.00 5107.6 2 ALKZp 100.00 80.00 100.00 AMGZ 95665.00 95665.00 95665.00 +5.13 18900.00 130000.00 16.1 1 AMGZp 47364.00 47364.00 47364.00 2000.00 47364.00 4000.0 3 ASBN 40000.00 43000.00 40000.00 -15.08 10933.75 47500.00 21.7 2 ASBNp1 12650.00 16000.00 12650.00 12650.00 16900.00 14936.3 5 ASFI 7900.00 7900.00 7900.00 690.00 11500.00 19.5 1 ATFB 4450.00 9000.00 4450.00 -44.38 1000.00 15710.00 23462.1 34 ATFBp 3000.00 3600.00 3050.00 +5.17 1250.00 3600.00 279.8 4 ATFBp8 2448.00 3600.00 2448.00 +31.98 1085.00 3600.00 2162.9 13 AZNO 9500.00 9500.00 9500.00 0 9200.01 16000.00 2240.0 2 BTAS 105000.00 130000.00 110000.00 +10.00 18100.00 190000.00 714.0 9 CCBN 951.00 1652.00 1652.00 +15.26 200.00 2400.00 240.0 16 CCBNp 1350.00 200.00 1350.00 CHFM 1188.00 600.00 1650.00 CSBN 2801.35 3850.00 3500.00 +30.34 171.00 4000.00 2953.6 15 CSBNp 700.01 700.01 700.01 171.00 700.01 8.8 1 GLOT 4000.00 1500.00 4000.00 HSBK 250.00 345.00 270.00 -20.59 38.00 420.00 376.0 6 HSBKp 141.00 141.00 187.00 HSBKp1 200.00 200.00 200.00 +11.11 164.00 200.00 0.0 1 KANT 1450.00 1450.00 1450.00 -19.44 400.10 1800.00 3.6 1 KIBN 225.00 150.00 230.00 KKGB 605.13 1490.00 740.00 -22.11 181.00 1800.00 1712.3 70 KKGBp 300.00 300.00 300.00 0 139.00 570.00 0.3 1 KZCR 28000.00 30000.00 30000.00 +7.25 1000.00 50000.00 1424.0 3 KZCRp 1000.00 500.00 1000.00 KZIS 35000.00 45000.00 35000.00 -36.36 15750.00 82500.00 20.1 2 KZTC 13125.00 1450.00 16000.00 KZTCp 8000.00 6750.00 8000.00 KZTK 28500.00 35000.00 29000.00 -27.50 9137.00 50000.00 1305.5 17 KZTKp 11500.00 16500.00 16000.00 -20.17 4100.00 26000.00 611.2 12 KZZN 9135.00 17355.00 12063.85 -7.17 1400.00 18500.00 5562.7 22 MMGZp 13000.00 16600.00 13500.00 -18.67 1000.00 21250.00 1003.0 11 NFBN 1321.00 1321.00 1321.00 0 1321.00 1486.20 4307.6 8 NRBN 50109.59 25650.00 62160.00 NRBNp6 22000.00 15120.00 23400.00 ORDB 4000.00 4001.00 4001.00 -9.07 1620.62 4400.00 3220.2 3 ORDBp 2000.00 1500.00 2100.00 ORNK 2.00 2.00 2.00 +100.00 1.00 2.00 13086.3 1 PDES 655.00 1432.40 1432.40 -84.92 655.00 14325.00 10993.4 5 RAHT 3000.00 3000.00 3000.00 100.00 3000.00 275.7 1 ROSA 603.32 574.59 680.69 TEBN 2100.00 4499.00 3950.00 -0.38 801.00 4855.00 866.9 65 TEBNp 1080.00 1090.00 1089.53 -0.62 952.00 1315.00 1370.1 14 TSBN 1800.00 1800.00 1800.00 1000.00 2550.00 8.8 1 TSBNp 1005.00 2110.00 1005.00 -4.74 1005.00 2110.00 8143.0 9 TXBN 30900.00 30900.00 30900.00 UTMK 35000.00 3400.00 38250.00 UTMKp 4500.00 4500.00 4500.00 +199.80 1000.00 4500.00 3.8 1 VTBN 280.00 336.00 300.00 0 235.00 530.00 2309.7 21 VTBNp 337.00 320.00 395.00 VTZL 234.00 289.00 289.00 +11.15 1.30 289.00 8.7 2 VTZLp 255.00 ZERD 1.00 0.80 1.70 ------ --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- --------- -------- ------ 58 112783.9 386 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Comments to the table: In case of deals' absence during the period (volume = 0), last price of successful trades is indicated. Trends (change, %) are given relative to last deal of previous month (May 1-31, 2006). If there are no deals in previous month, trend is not computed. Top-10 of KASE's most capitalized listing companies, whose shares are in the exchange's official securities list (at closing of trades on the mentioned dates) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- as of June 30, 06 as of May 30, 06 Change Short or ---------------------- ---------------------- ----------------- contracted title po- capita- stake po- capita- stake capita- stakes, of the company si- lization, of com- si- lization, of com- lization, perc. (all - JSC) tion m. USD pany, % tion m. USD pany, % m. USD points ----------------- ---- --------- ------- ---- --------- ------- --------- ------- CNPC-Aktobe- 1 7228.0 22.53 1 6713.9 20.93 +514.1 +1.60 munaygas Bank TuranAlem 2 4232.4 13.20 2 3757.2 11.71 +475.2 +1.48 Kazakhtelecom 3 2708.9 8.45 3 3641.9 11.35 -933.0 -2.91 Kazkommertsbank 4 2659.4 8.29 4 3246.3 10.12 -586.9 -1.83 Halyk bank 5 2214.9 6.91 5 2668.6 8.32 -453.7 -1.41 KAZZINC 6 2103.2 6.56 6 2212.3 6.90 -109.1 -0.34 TNC Kazkhrome 7 1817.2 5.67 7 1655.0 5.16 +162.2 +0.51 Bank CenterCredit 8 1120.5 3.49 10 942.5 2.94 +178.0 +0.55 Alliance-Bank 9 934.3 2.91 9 1075.2 3.35 -140.9 -0.44 Aluminium of Kazakhstan 10 771.8 2.41 12 611.3 1.91 +160.5 +0.50 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Note: Stake of a company, % - indicator, obtained by referring company's market capitalization to total capitalization of exchange market of shares of KASE's official securities list and expressed as percentage. At market closing on June 30, 2006 this indicator totaled USD30,278.5 m. 84 shares of 60 issuers were in KASE's official securities list. [2006-07-11]