ANALISIS: In May of 2006 prices correction on KASE shares market finished, and index KASE_Shares stabilized

/IRBIS, Assel Omarova, Andrey Tsalyuk, June 9, 06/ - In May of 2006 608 deals on shares were registered for the total amount of KZT22,316.4 m. or $182.1 m. on the current rate on dates of deals making in all market sectors (excepting repo-operations sector) on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE). Indicated sun is 34.4% from month KASE corporate securities market takeover (in April - 45.7%) and 1.8% from the whole month exchange's takeover (2.2%). Results of the month verified April results. "Price boom" period passed on Kazakhstan shares market. Historical maximum of index KASE_Shares fell on the beginning of the third April ten-days. That was the point, from which investors started to fix profit on made price difference, switching from purchase and expectancy to shares selling. It led to the fact that index KASE_Shares was falling not as faster during the last 30 as it was growing days in the recent past. Starting from the third ten-days of May, it stabilized, giving hint on soon correction movement completion. Thus, the market threw down the part of speculatively made points. Analysts of IRBIS used dynamic of shares prices of six big KASE listing companies as indicators, by means of which it is possible to explain the nature of correction and to judge on the extent of its completion. These prices affect decisively at present behavior of index KASE_Shares. As it is followed from the table "Top-10 of the most capitalized KASE listing companies..." (see bellow), common shares of CNPC - Aktobemunaygas JSC (AMGZ), Bank TuranAlem JSC (BTAS), Kazakhtelecom JSC (KZTK), Kazakhkommertsbank JSC (KKGB), Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC (HSBK), KAZCYNK JSC (KZZN) are related to these instruments. All of them were market favorites at the time of "prices boom", that essentially happened due to unexampled growth of the mentioned securities cost. AMGZ - most pronounced market leaders, as they are shares of oil Production Company. Unfortunately, such shares are rarity on stock exchange. As it is known, conjuncture of oil world market is exclusively propitious at present. Profit of CNPC - Aktobemunaygas by the results of year 2005 relatively to year 2004 has grown on data of audit more than two times. Other indicators at unchangeable authorized capital present good dynamic also. There is the factor of not less importance that this year the company was not the center of any negative news and rumors (besides, possible transformation into LLP, but this information was not widely spread). It is not surprising that market correction applied to AMGZ to the least extent. Existing minorite shareholders prefer to own shares of the company, despite fall of demand price. By this reason, the last deal on AMGZ was conducted on open KASE market on May 15 at KZT110 th. per one share at historical maximum of KZT130 th. The fact of CNPC - Aktobemunaygas JSC's register fixation for dividends payment by the results of year 2005 on May 19 did not affect shares rate, although the price went down, being under influence of either this factor or that took place in the context of the general market fall (that is more likely). BTAS - one of the most interesting in speculative context instrument, as its price only in the current year has grown from KZT67,500 to KZT190,000. To the beginning of the third ten-days of April the market of these shares was rather active. Moreover, conversion of bank's preferred shares into common influenced negatively on prices of BTAS, as a result the profit indicator of one common share decreased. Correction of BTAS rate was deep, as at the end of May they were traded at KZT100 th. per one security, in other words, the price turn back at level of the end of March - beginning of April. However, results of bank's activity in year 2005 and propitious predictions for year 2006 allow sellers to keep price of shares offering on KASE at level above KZT140 th. The major growth of KZTK cost happened at the beginning of the current year. during the first half of the spring brokers were able to keep rate of these shares between KZT40.0 and KZT50.0 th. per one security. However, common intention of the market to go down did not leave out stake instruments of Kazakhstan telecommunication operator. Rate fall to the beginning of the summer up to KZT30 th. per one share could be less, if not only insistent intention of the government to demonopolize the connection. Various ways of demonopolization and subsequent vagueness of the company's ability to generate further so successfully financial flows make some shareholders sell KZTK. KKGB - together with KZTK was an instrument that contributed its mite to development of market correction movement since April 20 up to May 18. Together with speculative repurchase of the shares, conversion of preferred shares into common, meaningful increasing of authorized capital and unpleasant story about holders of GDR bank, who up to recent time could not use the right of paramount purchase of bank's new shares, pushed their rate down. GDR of Kazkommertsbank JSC fell in Berlin and Frankfort during the whole May, that pulled down the local market also (although the influence here was not one-sided). Only last days of the analyzed month the situation started going in proper way, and prices stabilized at the level of February. Common shares of Halyk savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC (HSBK), in terms of prices, were better either in Kazakhstan or in Europe, than KKGB. Very likely, their rate met influence of some repurchase phenomenon in speculative rush. Strong positions of the bank and good results of its activity in year 2005 keep shares fall on open market. KZZN are securities of the issuer, who does not indulge to market in transparency. KASE has not handle with true results of KAZCYNK JSC's activity in year 2005 yet. That's why these shares, in opinion of IRBIS analysts, appeared among favorites, due to common deficit of stake instruments of production companies, and also owing to relatively high value of free float. Nevertheless, by means of slow growth of their prices Kazakhstan shares market went upward in year 2004. In the current year potential buyers and owners of KZZN indeed have nothing, just to follow rumors and use intuition. Therefore, the shares are considered by IRBIS as a speculative asset, prices of which were maximally affected by market environment. Correction of prices was expressed clearly, and currently they are traded at the level of mid-March. From said above, IRBIS specialists are disposed to make the following conclusions. 1. All shares market favorites without exception were affected by speculative nature of the market in the current year, and the speculative factor was the decisive in formation of their rates. Besides, objective factors, which forward to correct shares rates up to reasonable and rather well-founded values, correlating with the cost of corresponding depositary receipts in Europe, influenced on prices appearance in some cases. 2. At the beginning of June correction of KASE_Shares seems to be rather completed. Taking into consideration success of our companies and absence of ground for prediction of changes of their activity for the worse in the current year, and also propitious conjuncture of raw materials and financial world market for Kazakhstan, IRBIS analysts are positive to expect deeper fall of shares market. In terms of big and medium banks, which are increasing actively authorized capital now, it is worthy to say that observed in April and May prices fall of their shares plays the stimulating role. Adequately decreasing indicator P/E at good potential of banks to generate more powerful financial flows will appear in autumn as the "bait", and not only local but also foreign investors will be attracted by that. Moreover, rising of capitalization level of the banks, despite temporally falling EPS, will bring in this situation higher profit, than in year 2005. As a result, investors will forward increasing of BTAS, KKGB, HSBK rates or, at least, will preserve this shares in their portfolio. 3. Presented analysis allows to confirm that described price correction hardly touched stake securities of less capitalized listing companies, which work slightly effectively. Demand for this instruments keeps market from going down, although it does not play very important role. Tables are presented bellow, which characterize KASE market of stake instruments in May of year 2006. Change of share lists, which are traded on KASE, in May 2006 -------------------------------------- Shares: Issuers: Category of ------------------------- introduction number trend number trend ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- A 47 0 29 0 B 45 +1 36 +1 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 92 +1 64 +1 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- N 6 0 6 0 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- TOTAL 98 +1 68 +1 -------------------------------------- Explanation to the table: "А" - official "A" listing category; "В" - official "B" listing category; "А+В" - official list; at the end of the month, changes during month. Statistical description of share market on KASE in may 2006 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Month -------------------- Trend May 2006 April 2006 May 2006 to Indicator April 2006 -------------------------------------------- --------- ---------- ------------ Trade volume, USD th. 182,142.7 218,362.3 -16.6% Trade volume, KZT m. 22,316.4 27,517.5 -18.9% including offerings, USD th. 0 0 X including offerings, KZT m. 0 0 X including deals of secondary market, USD th. 182,142.7 218,362.3 -16.6% including deals of secondary market, KZT m. 22,316.4 27,517.5 -18.9% Number of deals 608 800 -24.0% including offerings 0 0 X including secondary market 608 800 -24.0% Number of instruments, involved in delas 44 44 0 Stake of direct deals (quantity), % 26.5 20.3 +6.2 пп Stake of direct deals (volume), % 37.4 55.8 -18.4 пп Participation of pension assets, % gross 27.8 20.1 +7.7 пп Number of exchange members, who closed deals 29 33 -12.1% Concentration of market, %* 57.0 59.8 -2.8 пп ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ * percent form total turnover of shares, which falls at most traded securities (their quantity is 5% from total number of titles of shares, included in trade lists of KASE) are indicated. Primary indicators of exchange market of shares purchase and sale in May 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------- Market Volume Volume capitalization KASE_Shares of deals, of deals, Number Date USD m. index USD th. KZT m. of deals ------------ -------------- ----------- --------- --------- -------- April 28, 06 35,543.4 2,062.60 63,498.0 7,900.4 38 May 2, 06 36,140.0 2,131.66 3,605.0 448.3 32 May 3, 06 33,982.5 2,049.62 14,138.0 1,758.8 33 May 4, 06 34,966.6 1,939.48 4,989.2 618.7 34 May 5, 06 33,696.1 2,030.58 10,387.4 1,286.3 43 May 6, 06 33,764.1 1,897.41 2,899.3 357.4 21 May 10, 06 34,052.1 1,897.61 4,022.3 494.2 15 May 11, 06 33,359.9 1,972.23 3,009.9 368.8 34 May 12, 06 33,717.7 1,876.25 16,303.3 1,984.9 36 May 15, 06 36,061.1 1,955.62 1,312.2 158.8 21 May 16, 06 33,787.6 1,795.38 7,451.4 907.2 19 May 17, 06 36,035.5 1,658.53 72,396.1 8,853.3 51 May 18, 06 37,492.8 1,642.94 3,115.7 380.3 20 May 19, 06 37,366.0 1,628.61 5,162.5 626.8 37 May 22, 06 37,716.2 1,650.92 1,835.4 223.2 26 May 23, 06 36,791.3 1,662.62 6,217.4 762.9 34 May 24, 06 34,678.4 1,637.70 2,262.1 277.3 28 May 25, 06 33,668.8 1,651.59 4,189.9 512.6 20 May 26, 06 31,767.9 1,679.97 6,862.3 839.9 26 May 29, 06 32,601.2 1,635.90 3,000.4 365.9 23 May 30, 06 32,609.6 1,687.96 6,877.0 835.4 44 May 31, 06 32,074.6 1,677.56 2,105.8 255.4 11 ------------ -------------- ----------- --------- --------- -------- Trend -3,468.8 -385.04 -9.8% -18.67% -------------------------------------------------------------------- Change of KASE_Shares index in different periods as of May 31, 2006 (basis actual/365) --------------------------------------------------------- Change --------------- Period % % APR ----------------------------------------- -------- ------ For the last 30 days (month) -18.7 -227.1 From this year beginning (from Jan 1, 06) +159.5 +388.2 For the last 365 days (year) +458.7 +458.7 For year 2005 +203.0 +203.0 From the beginning of 2004 +1,077.8 +446.6 --------------------------------------------------------- Results of share trades on KASE in May 2006 in purchase and sale sector (including direct deals) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Price, KZT per share ------------------------------------------------------------ Volume Number on last deal: for last 365 days ----------------- -------------------- Share --------- ---------- of deals, of symbol min max price (,% min max USD th. deals ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ ALKS 13.50 20.25 13.50 10.00 20.25 15.8 2 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ ALKSp 10.00 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ ALKSp3 10.00 10.00 10.00 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ ALKZ 744.06 2,500.00 1,390.00 +149.6 100.00 2,565.00 7,398.4 15 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ ALKZp 100.00 80.00 100.00 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ AMGZ 83,400.00 115,000.00 91,000.00 -27.8 18,900.00 130,000.00 895.7 11 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ AMGZp 19,200.00 2,000.00 20,100.00 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ ASBN 32,900.00 47,103.01 47,103.01 -0.4 10,933.75 47,500.00 446.7 3 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ ASBNp1 16,900.00 13,000.00 16,900.00 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ ASFI 11,399.00 690.00 11,500.00 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ ATFB 5,933.00 12,200.00 8,000.00 +50.9 1,000.00 15,710.00 72,110.5 120 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ ATFBp 2,900.00 3,000.00 2,900.00 1,035.00 3,600.00 41.9 2 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ ATFBp8 1,085.00 2,700.00 1,854.87 -17.6 1,000.00 3,600.00 8,676.8 15 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ AZNO 9,500.00 16,000.00 9,500.00 0 9,200.01 16,000.00 4,339.6 6 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ BTAS 100,000.00 140,000.00 100,000.02 -47.4 17,623.60 190,000.00 14,475.4 18 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ BTASp 130,000.00 130,000.00 130,000.00 +296.8 12,862.04 130,000.00 8.4 1 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ CCBN 1,350.00 2,400.00 1,433.33 +56.0 200.00 2,400.00 484.4 12 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ CCBNp 650.00 1,350.00 1,350.00 +107.7 200.00 1,350.00 53.8 4 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ CHFM 1,188.00 600.00 1,650.00 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ CSBN 2,685.19 4,000.00 2,685.19 -23.3 171.00 4,000.00 669.4 26 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ CSBNp 500.00 171.00 573.00 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ GLOT 4,000.00 4,000.00 4,000.00 0 1,500.00 4,000.00 9.5 2 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ HRLT 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.79 4.35 1,164.0 2 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ HSBK 337.38 360.00 340.00 -2.9 38.00 420.00 469.5 14 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ HSBKp 141.00 141.00 187.00 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ HSBKp1 180.00 200.00 180.00 0 163.00 200.00 14.5 2 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ KANT 507.50 1,800.00 1,800.00 400.10 1,800.00 189.0 8 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ KIBN 220.00 225.00 225.00 -2.2 150.00 230.00 825.2 6 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ KKGB 701.00 1,660.00 950.00 -32.1 181.00 1,800.00 3,846.3 98 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ KKGBp 300.00 350.00 300.00 -7.7 138.99 570.00 8,504.1 11 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ KZCR 25,630.50 50,000.00 27,972.60 1,000.00 50,000.00 2,391.7 9 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ KZCRp 1,000.00 500.00 1,000.00 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ KZIS 55,000.00 55,000.00 55,000.00 -32.1 15,750.00 82,500.00 12.0 2 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ KZTC 13,125.00 13,125.00 13,125.00 -18.0 1,450.00 16,000.00 25.3 3 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ KZTCp 6,750.00 8,000.00 8,000.00 6,750.00 8,000.00 64.5 8 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ KZTK 36,500.00 40,000.00 40,000.00 -18.4 8,500.00 50,000.00 622.7 9 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ KZTKp 14,600.00 26,000.00 20,043.84 -1.0 3,100.00 26,000.00 1,347.4 21 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ KZZN 12,200.00 17,500.00 12,994.99 -25.3 1,400.00 18,500.00 2,412.9 15 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ MMGZp 15,000.00 21,250.00 16,600.00 -2.4 1,000.00 21,250.00 6,927.5 44 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ NFBN 1,321.00 1,321.00 1,321.00 -11.1 1,321.00 1,486.20 7,572.2 15 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ NRBN 32,900.00 53,996.00 50,109.59 -19.4 25,650.00 62,160.00 1,155.1 5 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ NRBNp6 22,000.00 22,000.00 22,000.00 -6.0 15,120.00 23,400.00 0.9 1 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ ORDB 4,400.00 4,400.00 4,400.00 +10.0 1,500.00 4,400.00 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ ORDBp 2,000.00 1,400.00 2,100.00 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ ORNK 1.00 1.00 1.00 -20.0 1.00 1.59 6,439.4 2 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ PDES 9,500.00 9,500.00 9,500.00 -33.7 8,000.00 14,325.00 1,604.2 1 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ ROSA 603.32 574.59 680.69 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ TEBN 1,439.45 4,500.00 3,965.00 +22.0 801.00 4,855.00 4,000.3 63 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ TEBNp 1,073.75 1,096.33 1,096.33 -15.7 952.00 1,315.00 4,506.4 8 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ TMLZ 6,472.22 6,472.22 6,472.22 +59.8 4,000.00 6,472.22 7,182.7 2 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ TSBN 1,350.00 1,000.00 2,550.00 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ TSBNp 1,055.00 1,055.00 1,055.00 0 1,048.44 1,250.00 2,874.7 1 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ TXBN 30,900.00 30,900.00 30,900.00 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ UTMK 35,000.00 38,250.00 35,000.00 -2.8 3,400.00 38,250.00 113.2 4 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ UTMKp 1,500.00 1,501.00 1,501.00 +7.2 1,000.00 2,200.00 779.3 3 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ VTBN 300.00 369.03 300.00 -25.0 235.00 530.00 2,711.2 4 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ VTBNp 337.00 337.00 337.00 0 320.00 395.00 3,065.6 4 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ VTZL 200.00 260.00 260.00 1.30 270.00 1,694.7 5 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ VTZLp 255.00 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ ZERD 1.00 0.80 1.70 ------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ------ --------- ---------- --------- ------ 63 182,142.7 608 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Comments to the table: In case of deals' absence during period (volume = 0), last price of resulting trades is indicated. Trends (change, %) are given relative to last deal of previous month (April 1-30, 2006). If there are no deals in previous month, trend is not computed. Top-10 of KASE's most capitalized listing companies, whose shares are in financial list of exchange's securities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- On May 31, 2006 On April 28, 2006 Change Short or ---------------------- ---------------------- ----------------- contracted title po- capita- stake po- capita- stake capita- stakes, of the company si- lization, of com- si- lization, of com- lization, %. (all - JSC) tion USD m. pany, % tion USD m. pany, % USD m. point. ------------------- ---- --------- ------- ---- --------- ------- --------- ------- CNPC Aktobemunaygas 1 6713.9 20.93 1 9060.1 25.49 -2346.2 -4.56 Bank TuranAlem 2 3757.2 11.71 2 5458.1 15.36 -1700.9 -3.64 Kazakhtelecom 3 3641.9 11.35 4 4334.0 12.19 -692.2 -0.84 Kazkommertsbank 4 3246.3 10.12 3 4545.2 12.79 -1298.9 -2.67 Halyk bank 5 2668.6 8.32 6 2673.1 7.52 -4.5 +0.80 KAZTCINK 6 2212.3 6.90 5 2887.0 8.12 -674.7 -1.23 TNC Kazkhrome 7 1655.0 5.16 24 63.5 0.18 +1591.5 +4.98 ATFBank 8 1234.6 3.85 8 824.3 2.32 +410.3 +1.53 Alliance-Bank 9 1075.2 3.35 7 1052.2 2.96 +23.0 +0.39 Bank Center-Credit 10 942.5 2.94 9 571.6 1.61 +370.9 +1.33 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Comments to the table: Stake of a company, % - indicator, obtained by referring company's market capitalization to total capitalization of exchange market of shares of KASE's official list of securities and expressed in percent. At market closing on May 31, 2006 this indicator totaled USD32,074.6 m. 92 shares of 64 issuers were in KASE's official list of securities. [2006-06-09]